Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/21 | Rocking Today's Hump Day Slate 🐪

September 21, 2022

Time is'a tickin' on the MLB regular season so let's keep this train rolling while we can!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Today represents the two-week mark before we hit the finish line on the regular season. That’s just another friendly reminder that there are a limited number of full slates remaining before the postseason arrives! We’ll be set up with a nine-game slate on this hump day so let’s go to work!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Some issues worth monitoring today including some less-than-ideal conditions at Coors Field.

MIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Fairly strong 15 mph winds blowing IN from right. Some storms do threaten this game but, with a little luck, they’ll play nine innings without any problems. Double-check to be sure closer to first pitch. Those winds will downgrade the bats regardless.

CLE @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): 15+ mph winds blowing OUT to left/center. Two quality starters are pitching this game (Lance Lynn vs. Triston McKenzie) but those winds obviously benefit the bats.

SF @ COL (8:40 ET, 10 O/U): Decent chance for some light-to-moderate rain throughout this game. Temps in the low-60s with light winds blowing IN from right. A PPD doesn’t seem incredibly likely but, for September, it’ll be some fairly miserable playing conditions and not the most ideal Coors Field weather. I’ll never talk someone off from playing Coors Field bats but just be aware that the chances of this game resulting in a more “normal” score is increased today.

STL @ SD (9:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. STL

On the season, the Cardinals have crushed lefty pitching and possess an MLB-best .354 wOBA and 132 wRC+. However, they’ve been less effective against southpaws on the road lately. Over the last month against LHPs on the road, they’re hitting a much more subdued .190 AVG, .294 wOBA, and 90 wRC+ while posting a 22.1% kRate, which is a high kRate by the Cardinals’ standards. Blake Snell has the most raw strikeout upside out of any pitcher on the slate given his 31.3% kRate and 14.5% SwStr%. He may also get some help from those 10 mph winds blowing in from left field today in what is already a pitcher-friendly ballpark. We know Snell is a ‘feast or famine’ kinda pitcher when it comes to DFS and the Cardinals bats could wake up at any moment. But he remains a worthy option for GPPs today.

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.1k | @ KC

Ober has not thrown more than 86 pitches in any of his eight starts this season so there are some concerns to be had there. Kauffman Stadium is typically a solid hitter’s park but those stiff 15 mph winds blowing in from right field should help Ober out, especially considering he profiles as a flyball pitcher with a 50.9% Flyball Rate on the season. The Royals also rank dead last against RHPs with a 70 wRC+ over the last two weeks. If Ober can be efficient with his pitches, similar to his last outing (5.0 IP, 70 pitches, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 5 K) then he may post a respectable fantasy score for where he’s priced at.

Matt Manning (RHP), DET | DK: $5.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ BAL

Manning is more of a DraftKings SP2 candidate in GPPs, given his $5,700 price there. He does bring 25 DKFP/45 FDFP upside to the table when he’s on top of his game and he’s coming into today on the heels of back-to-back performances where he scored 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP. He has earned a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the season while doing a solid job of limiting hard contact. The Orioles are also right around league average against RHPs lately with a 104 wRC+ over the last couple of weeks. It’s “safe” by no means but every pitcher on today’s slate carries at least one glaring weakness.

Also Consider:

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ OAK

Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

 

Texas Rangers vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), LAA

Rangers at home against a lefty is often a solid recipe for stack success. Does it always work out? No. But it has been successful overall. Dating back to August 1st, when the Rangers are facing a lefty at home they lead the MLB with a huge 164 wRC+ to go along with a .301 AVG, .398 wOBA, and .258 ISO. Tucker Davidson has only started nine games this season but in that time he has racked up a very poor 6.96 ERA, 5.94 xFIP, and 1.78 WHIP which ranks last among all starters on this slate in all three categories. The Angels bullpen has also ranked out as a bottom five unit in recent weeks.

LAA Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien | Sneaky Bat: Josh Jung (12% pOwn%)

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

So if we take that same sample size that was mentioned above with Texas (at home vs. LHPs since August 1st), the Dodgers have posted results that are equally as impressive: .321 AVG, .393 wOBA, .220 ISO, 160 wRC+. MadBum is clearly on the tail end of his career and enters this game with an 8.28 ERA and 1.80 WHIP across his last five starts. With the Dodgers coasting to a playoff bye at this point, we will need to make sure they’re rolling out a competitive lineup before honing in on these bats. As long as the majority of the typical starters are on the field today, they’ll be a go-to stack this evening.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Bets | Sneaky Bat: Justin Turner (11% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

Tough match-up against Lance Lynn, who has been pitching very well lately, but there will be those helpful 15+ mph winds blowing out to left/center in today’s ballgame and Lynn has allowed a lofty 45.0% Flyball Rate over the last month. The Guardians are on a mini hot streak as well after plating 21 combined runs over their last two games and they’re a notoriously difficult team to strike out (16% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks, lowest in MLB).

CWS Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario | Sneaky Bat: Andres Gimenez (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

2B/3B Ryan McMahon | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

2B/OF Thairo Estrada | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

2B/OF Nick Gordon | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Corbin Carroll | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

3B Josh Jung | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs.Tucker Davidson (LHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), LAA

We’ve got some great reverse splits working in favor of Nathaniel Lowe today. Lowe has produced a .411 wOBA and .214 ISO against LHPs on the season. Against LHBs, like Lowe, Davidson has racked up a 9.64 ERA, 7.22 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .384 wOBA, .272 ISO, and a 1.93 HR/9 Rate. If Lowe doesn’t launch one off of Davidson, he’ll have some chances to go yard against an Angels bullpen that has somehow given up 3.02 HR/9 over the last two weeks (by far the highest HR/9 Rate in the MLB during that span).

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Elvis Andrus OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | +600 (DraftKings) | 0.75 Units

This prop cashed for us at +550 yesterday and perhaps it is a bit bold to go back to it, especially with a quality starter like Triston McKenzie on the mound for Cleveland. But, hey, we’re just throwing a smaller wager on this in hopes of a 6/1 payout. Yesterday I had a one-unit bet on this but I’ll lower it to 0.75 units today. Andrus now has at least one stolen base in five of his last six games and he’s rocking a .400 OBP in the month of September. Runs may be difficult to come by in this game so I’d expect Andrus to stay aggressive on the base paths if he gets on.

Bailey Ober OVER 3.5 Strikeouts | -155 (DraftKings) | 2.25 Units

Ober has owned a slightly above average 23.4% kRate over his last 20 starts and, even though his pitch count doesn’t usually go beyond around 80 throws, he has hit the over on 3.5 Ks in four consecutive starts and 6-of-8 starts this season. He’s also faced the Royals twice already this year and has recorded at least four strikeouts on both occasions. The Royals have been very poor against RHPs lately and I believe Ober can get to 4+ strikeouts again today.

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!