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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a great day for some multi-sport DFS action and on the MLB front, we’ll have a quality seven-game main slate to work with. This slate features some strong pitching top-to-bottom so we only have one game with a total above 8.5 runs. That said, there should still be a few offenses that pop off today so we’ll see if we can crack the code and find the correct hitters/stacks to land on. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BAL @ CLE (7:15 ET): Winds IN from right near 10 mph.

• PIT @ CHC (7:40 ET): Periodic stints of light rain but nothing that should spark a delay. 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.3k | @ OAK

We’re going to see some major ownership on Skubal (DK: 44% pOwn%, FD: 40% pOwn%) today but he has been downright filthy. Spanning his last four starts (25.0 IP), Skubal has posted a 1.80 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 0.76 WHIP, .156 opp AVG, and 35.1% kRate. Sure, he benefited from a soft schedule during that stretch -- vs. NYY, @ CWS, vs. CWS, and @ LAA -- but he’s going up against another soft opponent today in Oakland.

The A’s have shown some pop and have been much more of an average offense against LHPs lately rather than a bad one. Over the last month against lefties, they’ve put up a respectable 95 wRC+. However, their .228 AVG in that span is the second-lowest in the MLB and their 28.5% kRate is the highest. If you’re comfortable with the very high ownership, Skubal should be a go-to DFS option today.

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ NYY

Berrios has regained some form as of late and heads into tonight’s match-up on the heels of three consecutive quality starts, racking up at least seven Ks in all three outings. It’s a smaller sample size, but in those 20.0 IP, he has procured a 1.80 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .194 opp AVG, and 29.3% kRate. Berrios has also found a way to shake those horrid road splits that he has been infamous for in past seasons. While he has been slightly better at home this year, overall, it’s a fairly marginal difference.

At this point in the season, any solid right-handed pitcher who faces this current Yankees team will need to draw some DFS attention. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (403 PA), the Yankees rank dead last with the following offensive metrics: .177 AVG, .549 OPS, .251 wOBA, .089 ISO, and 57 wRC+. Truly awful numbers. And only the Angels (31.7% kRate) have a higher strikeout rate than the Yankees (28.3% kRate) in that span as well. If the same Berrios shows up today that we’ve seen the last couple of weeks, he’s poised for another excellent outing against this bumbling Yankees offense.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.9k | @ PHI

I was a little surprised to see Peterson priced as the cheapest SP on the DraftKings slate. For that reason, he’s going to land on the DK SP2 radar following a few solid outings. Peterson has notched at least eight Ks in three of his last four starts, including a 10 K game most recently against the Reds. Unfortunately, he’ll face a tough Phillies offense today and he’ll be on the road where he has averaged -57.4% less FPPG. The Phillies rank 7th in the MLB with a 121 wRC+ against LHPs L30 Days. However, there is some strikeout potential to be had as their 23.7% kRate checks in as the 11th highest in that same span. It won’t be without some sizable risk, but Peterson has some realistic 20 DKFP/40 FDFP potential on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $12.2k, FD: $11.5k | vs. TOR

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | @ WAS

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9k | @ CLE

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. NYM

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

+ Braves: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Irvin is a very mediocre starter who has recorded a lackluster 4.34 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, and a slate-worst .347 opp xwOBA this season.

+ Poor statcast numbers for Irvin over the last month: 27.6% LineDrive%, 93.1 mph average exit velocity (bottom 5th percentile), and seven barreled balls allowed (bottom 20th percentile).

+ Braves vs. RHPs L2 Weeks (404 PA): .290 AVG (1st), .875 OPS (2nd), .372 wOBA (2nd), .233 ISO (1st), 133 wRC+ (3rd), 39.4% HardContact% (4th), and 16.3% kRate (lowest in MLB).

- The Nationals bullpen has been pitching decently well as of late -- their 4.42 xFIP L30 Days ranks 16th in MLB.

- As usual, the core Braves bats are very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Chicago Cubs vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

+ Cubs: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ Oviedo has not been overly sharp on the road lately -- in his last four road starts, he has posted a 5.97 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, 14.9% kRate, and 14.9% BB% -- and that includes a CGSO against the Royals on Aug. 28th.

+ The Cubs have been the #4 home offense this season, averaging 5.32 runs/gm.

+ Against RHPs at home this season, the Cubs rank 8th in OPS, 8th in wOBA, and 6th in wRC+.

-/+ The Pirates have had an average bullpen over the last month.

- Less than ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field today -- cooler temps in the 60s with 5-10 mph winds blowing in from center.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Miles Mastrobuoni

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

+ 7-of-9 Pirates hitters are projected for ≤ 7% pOwn%.

+ The Pirates have been a serviceable offense as of late -- over their last eight games, they have ranked as a top 10 offense: .274 AVG (6th), .799 OPS (7th), .339 wOBA (9th), .184 ISO (8th), and 111 wRC+ (8th).

+ The Pirates do struggle with a high strikeout rate, but they’ll be facing Hendricks, who is much more of a contact pitcher and owns a low 16.3% kRate on the season.

+ Hendricks has faced a soft schedule as of late but he has failed to pitch past the 6th inning in his last three starts, where he also surrendered seven hits in each outing.

+ Hendricks has not found much success against the current Pirates roster: 81 PA, .284 opp AVG, .362 opp wOBA, and 13.6% kRate.

+ Plenty of cheap bats in this Pirates lineup.

- The Cubs have had a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

- As mentioned, there will be less than ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field today -- cooler temps in the 60s with 5-10 mph winds blowing in from center.

Favorite PIT Bats: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds

Bargain Bat: Miguel Andujar

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Hunter Gaddis (RHP), CLE

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

3B Max Muncy, LAD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

1B Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Hunter Gaddis (RHP), CLE

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Miguel Andujar, PIT | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

3B Mike Mastrobuoni, CHC | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

No HR Calls contest today but be sure to participate in the Touchdown Calls contest for tonight’s Thursday Night Football action!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ozzie Albies MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Tarik Skubal MORE than 7.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!