Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/20 | Tuesday's Baseball Action is the Main Attraction 👀

September 20, 2022

There's no football action today so MLB will take center stage. We'll get a look at some top plays and props for this evening's 11-game slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

All eyes are on MLB today with an 11-game slate on the menu! This slate has a relatively decent balance between pitching and stack options. And figuring out what to do with Coors Field will always be a major question that must be answered. Best of luck today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Nothing too crazy today.

PIT @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Winds OUT to right around 10 mph.

MIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Winds OUT to left near 10 mph.

CLE @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds IN from right at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.7k | @ OAK

If you look at Castillo’s last 13 starts, dating allllll the way back to June 28th, the only game where he scored below 19.2 DKFP/32 FDFP was… on the road against the Oakland A’s. It’s safe to say we can chalk that up to a bad day at the office. Overall, across those last 13 starts (83.1 IP), Castillo has maintained a 2.05 ERA, 2.84 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, .261 opp wOBA, and a 30.3% kRate. Elite stuff! The A’s do occasionally pop off against a good opposing starter but it isn’t a likely outcome today. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (349 PA), the A’s have just a .200 AVG, 84 wRC+, and an astronomically high 33.0% kRate. Castillo should get the job done this evening.

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. WAS

Morton draws a quality match-up at home today. His home/away splits have been quite apparent this season -- here’s a quick breakdown:

Home: 2.96 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, .191 opp AVG, 33.0% kRate

Away: 5.38 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, .257 opp AVG, 24.0% kRate

Overall, Morton is averaging +46.9% more fantasy points at home. The Nationals have not been pushovers (108 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 11th) but if Morton continues to bring the heat at home, he’s going to be a worthy DFS target today. The Braves (-335 ML) check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate as well.

Austin Voth, BAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DET

There aren’t many value pitchers that stand out today, but it would not be a surprise if Austin Voth turns in a solid performance. He has maintained a 2.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last nine starts (41.1 IP). In that stretch, he’s had some nice games against teams like the Astros and Blue Jays, so who says he can’t turn in five or six strong innings against the Tigers? Detroit has an 82 wRC+ and 25.5% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. Voth threw out of the bullpen in his last appearance, with his last start coming 11 days ago. Pitch count may be a concern, but Voth remains a low-priced target, specifically as an SP2 option in DraftKings GPPs.

Also Consider:

 

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $11k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CLE

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. PIT

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Giants Bullpen

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin has turned in three quality starts in his last four outings but we should probably bet against him sustaining that success. In three starts (13.2 IP) against the Braves this year, Corbin has accumulated a 9.88 ERA, 2.41 WHIP, .394 opp AVG, and .445 opp wOBA. Corbin has also been much worse on the road this season where his ERA is over three runs higher than his home ERA. The Braves have cooled off a bit against lefties, but they’re still an above-average offense when a southpaw is on the mound (112 wRC+ over the last month, ranks 12th). And, as mentioned yesterday, Atlanta has just been excellent offensively against Washington all season: .286 AVG, .380 wOBA, .241 ISO, 144 wRC+.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., Travis d’Arnaud | Sneaky Bat: William Contreras (5% pOwn%)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

Ragans has a slate-worst 7.08 ERA over his last five starts, and he’s been extremely bad against RHBs, allowing a .393 wOBA, .253 ISO, 1.78 WHIP, and 2.11 HR/9 to that side of the plate. The Angels have somewhat quietly been a top 10 offense against LHPs as they boast a .331 wOBA and 116 wRC+ against lefties over the last month (ranks 9th). Their .243 ISO against LHPs in that same span ranks second in the league. Ragans hasn’t pitched beyond five innings in any of his appearances this season, so expect the Angels to see around half of their at-bats come against a bottom 10 ranked Rangers bullpen.

TEX Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Luis Rengifo, Shohei Ohtani | Sneaky Bat: Taylor Ward (9% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Drey Jameson (RHP), ARI

Drey Jameson had a dream MLB debut against the Padres last Thursday (7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 5 K). However, here’s a friendly reminder that this is the same pitcher that accounted for a 6.95 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, .298 opp AVG, 1.59 WHIP, and 1.66 HR/9 Rate in 114.0 IP in Triple-A this year. Now, all of a sudden, all of the Dodger bats are coming in under 10% pOwn%? This is going to be Jameson’s first MLB road game and it’s a tough environment in Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have not released their lineup yet since they’re in the process of playing a doubleheader today, but as long as they aren’t sitting a bunch of their routine starters, they’re worth a look as a low-owned stack today. Also, a quick reminder that the D-Backs bullpen has been terrible (MLB-worst 5.79 xFIP L2Wks).

ARI Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner | Sneaky Bat: Max Muncy (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Drey Jameson (RHP), ARI

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3k| vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

2B/3B Ryan McMahon | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Giants Bullpen

2B/OF Thairo Estrada | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

2B/OF Nick Gordon | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Giants Bullpen

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B/3B David Villar | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C William Contreras | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Contreras has blasted a couple of home runs in his last four games and he’s batting .409 against LHPs in his last 20 games. His statcast numbers against LHPs over the last two weeks are green all around. Patrick Corbin strolls into Atlanta having allowed a huge 2.29 HR/9 Rate and 23.2% HR/FB Rate to RHBs when pitching on the road this season. We’ll look for the All-Star DH to launch another homer out today.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Elvis Andrus OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | +550 (DraftKings) | 1.0 Unit

Stolen base props are usually a shot in the dark but the +550 odds for Andrus to steal a base today just seem too soft to ignore. He’s successfully stolen a base in four of his last five games, and Guardians SP Aaron Civale has allowed eight stolen bases in his last 20 starts. Andrus has a .400 OBP in the month of September, and if he gets on base, I’m thinking he has the green light to go for another stolen bag tonight.

Luis Castillo OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

A strikeout prop with a 7.5 O/U is a bit dangerous with most pitchers. However, Castillo has hit the over on 7.5 Ks in eight of his last 11 starts. The Oakland A’s also have a massive 33.0% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks, which is easily the highest kRate in the MLB during that span. Castillo pitches deep into games on a regular basis and the Mariners are fighting to hang on for a postseason wild card berth, so motivation should be high for everyone in a Mariners uniform today.

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!