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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/2 | Breaking Down Friday's 13-Game Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/2 | Breaking Down Friday's 13-Game Slate!
Friday offers us 13 games to dissect. There are some obvious plays out there, but we'll also have some low-owned pitchers and stacks in some sneaky-good spots.
Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown š
Itās another Friday free-for-all in the land of MLB DFS as a beefy 13-game slate lands on the menu -- a welcomed sight after last nightās ho-hum three/four-game main slates. We are a little behind schedule today (and by āweā I mean āmeā) so letās jump right into the action!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook āļøš¦ļøāļø
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
A double-check on the radar will be needed in a couple of games tonight.
MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7 O/U): Some scattered rainstorms will be in the general area tonight so some sort of delay is a possibility here.
CHC @ STL (8:15 ET, 8 O/U): Overcast with some moderate rainfall expected throughout the evening. Perhaps they just play this game a little wet but some caution will be needed here.
Pitchers to Consider ā¾
Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.8k | @ CLE
The Guardians have been abysmal at the plate lately with an MLB-worst .185 AVG, .229 wOBA, and 45 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks. Luis Castillo is coming off a strong start against this same Guardians offense last Saturday where he allowed only four hits, one run, and a walk across six innings while striking out ten and scoring 28.5 DKFP/49 FDFP. It was Castilloās ninth start in his last 10 outings where he scored at least 21.6 DKFP/40 FDFP. It can often be a smart move to avoid a pitcher facing the same team in back-to-back starts, but that may not be the case today given Clevelandās offensive woes.
Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MIA
Note: Remember to check the weather here closer to lock.
Mortonās last three starts at home: 19.1 IP, 0.93 ERA, 1.84 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, .162 opp AVG, 41.9% kRate. Dominant stuff. And those three games were pitched against good offenses (Phillies, Mets, and Astros). Morton is on back his home mound once again tonight and heāll face off with a bottom-of-the-barrel Marlins offense. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, Miami is hitting .189 with a .252 wOBA, 62 wRC+, and 23.8% kRate. Morton is not the most consistent pitcher but when heās on, heās *really* on and the recent uptrend when pitching at home should be a good sign heading into todayās game.
Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.3k | vs. NYY
Springs ranks second among pitchers on this slate with a 3.13 xFIP and third with a 27.0% kRate. He usually doesnāt throw more than around 85 pitches so his upside is capped somewhat, but that is baked into his low-end DFS salaries as well. Heās at home against the Yankees today, a match-up that may have many looking elsewhere. However, as sports media has well-documented in recent weeks, the Yankees are not exactly clicking top to bottom right now. In the last month against LHPs, the Yankees have just a .300 wOBA and 98 wRC+ -- very average/below-average results. Springs faced the Yankees about 2 1/2 weeks ago and ended up going five innings on 78 pitches, allowed two hits, one run, and snagged four strikeouts while securing the win. It was a performance good for 19.5 DKFP/30 FDFP. A similar, and perhaps, even better, result may be expected today, especially if heās given a heavier workload than just 78 pitches.
Also Consider:
*Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.4k | @ ATL
*Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. CHC
David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS
*Weather concerns.
Team Stacks to Target šÆ
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Boston Red Sox vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), TEX
The Red Sox have been a top 10 offense against southpaws with a 116 wRC+ vs. LHPs in the last month (ranks 9th), and 149 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 4th). They get to go up against the ghost of Dallas Keuchel tonight. Keuchel just doesnāt seem to āhave itā anymore. Heās up to a 10.13 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last five starts, and heās barely hanging on an MLB roster. The only downside here is the Rangers bullpen has been really strong lately so if Keuchel gets pulled early, some BoSox stack potential may go out the window. Time will tell!
TEX Bullpen Rating: 7/10
Favorite BOS Bats: Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Pham, Trevor Story | Sneaky Bat: KikƩ HernƔndez (4% pOwn%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC
The Cards stack doesnāt necessarily smash every day, but lately, theyāre rarely posting any sort of dud offensive performance. The Cardinals lead the MLB over the last two weeks (by a fairly wide margin) with their .371 wOBA, .218 ISO, and 143 wRC+. We might as well roll with some of these guys until they cool off. Going up against a middling starter like Adrian Sampson (3.97 ERA, 4.33 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP) and a Cubs bullpen that has been awful lately doesnāt seem like a spot where the St. Louis bats should cool off.
CHC Bullpen Rating: 2/10
Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler OāNeill | Sneaky Bat: Lars Nootbaar (11% pOwn%)
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out š¤
Kansas City Royals vs. Drew Hutchison (RHP), DET
The Royals have posted some big games recently and rank 7th in the MLB over the previous week with a .347 wOBA and 125 wRC+. Drew Hutchison has posted a slate-worst 4.92 xFIP across 12 starts this season and has a poor 1.62 WHIP when pitching at home.
DET Bullpen Rating: 6/10
Favorite KC Bats: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto | Sneaky Bat: Michael Massey (9% pOwn%)
One-Off Bats āļø
Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC
OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS
2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA
SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), TEX
Bargain Batters šø
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings
1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS
1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS
C Shea Langeliers | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL
OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC
3B Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK
2B/OF Nick Gordon | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS
1B Dermis Garcia | DK: $2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL
Home Run Call of the Day š£š„
1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS
Whenever Josiah Gray is on the hill any lefty bat with decent power is going to be a home run candidate. Gray is allowing an absurd .328 ISO, 3.38 HR/9 Rate, and 22.6% HR/FB Rate to LHBs this year. Meanwhile, Vogelbach leads the Mets lineup today with a .262 ISO vs. RHPs. This hefty lefty hitter has plenty of home run potential this evening.
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Players Props & Bets š°
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Sandy Alcantara OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -160 (BetMGM) | 2.5 Units
As long as the starting pitchers donāt get interrupted by a lengthy rain delay in Atlanta today, Alcantara should easily hit the over on this K prop against the Braves. Alcantara has racked up 21 Ks in 17 innings of work against the Braves this year, including a 14 K performance in Atlanta back on May 28th. The Braves have the potential to do some damage as far as hits/homers/runs go, but that doesnāt negate the fact that they strike out a ton. Their 26.3% kRate vs. RHPs in the last two weeks is the second-highest in the MLB.
Nathaniel Lowe OVER 1.5 Total Hits | +200 (DraftKings) | 1.25 Units
Lowe is raking at the plate and leads the entire MLB with a .379 AVG over the last month. He has recorded multiple hits in eight of his last 11 games. Heāll face Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta today, who is decent but far from a lockdown starting pitcher. Behind Pivetta will be a stumbling BoSox bullpen that has an MLB-worst 1.81 WHIP over the last two weeks to go along with a .296 opp AVG and 6.66 ERA. Letās look for Lowe to bag multiple hits in this one at a 2-to-1 payout.
LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!
Best of luck out there today, everyone!