Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/19 | Hunting for Some Monday Magic

September 19, 2022

Finding the best options on today's well-balanced seven-game slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back for another week of MLB action! We’ve got a solid little seven-game main slate to dive into today. Keep in mind that this one will get underway a bit earlier than usual with a start time of 6:40 ET. After pushing out some Monday night NFL content, we (and by “we” I mean “me”) are a little behind on the MLB breakdown so this will be a short and tidy newsletter! Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no weather concerns or notable wind conditions worth mentioning on this slate!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ARI

Kershaw went up against this D-Backs lineup six days ago and needed just 82 pitches to cover seven scoreless two-hit innings and rack up 28 DKFP/46 FDFP. The D-Backs now travel to Dodgers Stadium, and they’ve been having major issues with lefties on the road. Over the last month, D-Backs away splits against southpaws: .214 AVG, .257 wOBA, .107 ISO, 64 wRC+, 27.9% kRate. Kershaw’s pitch count has been held down over the last few weeks. However, he’s also not priced up incredibly high, and he’s proven that he can provide a strong fantasy score even if he only throws 80-90 pitches.

Kyle Wright, ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.1k | vs. WAS

At home this season, Wright is rocking a 2.82 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 25.1% kRate. The Nationals have been sneaky good against RHPs recently (123 wRC+ L2Wks, ranks 7th), and they’ve been a tough team to strike out. But Wright has gone seven full innings against this team in each of his two starts against them this season. Atlanta is also a massive -345 favorite at home, so you must feel good about Wright snagging that DFS win bonus.

Also Consider:

 

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.6k | vs. CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

In 35.0 IP this season, Abbott has allowed a towering 63.7% Fly Ball Rate which has led to a 2.06 HR/9 rate. He’s also allowing a .268 ISO to LHBs and a .219 ISO to RHBs. The Braves create a ton of hard contact throughout their lineup and they have an MLB-leading 17.3% HR/FB Rate against RHPs over the last month. Abbott may not pitch incredibly deep into this game but there’s nothing to fear when it comes to the Nationals bullpen either. The Braves have owned the Nationals pitching this season with a team .377 wOBA, .240 ISO, and 142 wRC+.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II | Sneaky Bat: William Contreras (4% pOwn%)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

Outside of Chad Kuhl and maybe Cory Abbott, Tyler Alexander (5.35 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP) stands out as perhaps the lowest quality starter on the slate. He’s been awful against RHBs, allowing a .361 wOBA and .211 ISO, and the O’s will be rolling out seven RHBs today. Baltimore has had its issues with lefty pitching in recent weeks but this is a match-up to exploit.

DET Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander | Sneaky Bat: Adley Rutschman (8% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

We’re not seeing much ownership falling on Houston bats today (Yordan Alvarez has the highest pOwn% at 9%) even though they’ve been one of the best offenses in baseball, both long term and in the short term. Houston’s 135 wRC+ over the last two weeks ranks them second in the MLB. Rasmussen (2.57 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP) has stitched together a strong season and, before his last start against Toronto, he’s been lights out in recent weeks. However, he has benefited from some softer match-ups recently and he’ll need to be at the top of his game to keep the Astros bats in full check.

TB Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve | Sneaky Bat: Alex Bregman (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: 46.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

2B/3B Ryan McMahon | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

2B/OF Thairo Estrada | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Javier Baez | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

1B Garrett Cooper | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CHC

1B/3B David Villar | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Freeman has a .364 AVG and .434 wOBA across his last 20 games and, while I’m not a huge believer in BvP, Freeman has been excellent against D-Backs starter Merrill Kelly: 17 PA, .429 AVG, .586 wOBA. Freeman has accounted for multiple bases in six of his last eight games so I’m fully on board with attacking the over on this prop at plus-money odds.

Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 RBI | +170 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

Harris has had a few down games recently, yet he is still maintaining a .377 AVG over his last 20 games with 15 RBIs. Against RHPs in his last 20 games (44 plate appearances), he’s hitting for a titanic .465 AVG with 11 RBIs. Nationals starter, RHP Cory Abbott, has been awful against lefty hitters like Harris. He’s surrendering a .376 wOBA and .268 ISO to that side of the plate so if the Braves have a RISP with Harris at the plate, I like his chances of hitting at least one guy in today. Great odds on this at +170 as well.

Plenty of green on the board for Money Mike

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It can also identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!