Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 9/19/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $300 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

MLB is the main attraction today and we’ll be blessed with a hefty 12-game main slate to sink our teeth into. Pitching is pretty top-heavy with several aces on the mound and a steep drop-off once you get into the mid-range and value tier. On the flip side, that should put more hitters/stacks in play. As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, be sure to exercise some added caution. Some teams have nothing to play for beyond developing their younger players while other match-ups can take on a postseason feel with wild card berths and better playoff seeding implications on the line. This should be a fun one though so let’s dive into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to right. Decent little home run odds bump to lefty bats and oppo hitters who can get it out over the short porch.

• CLE @ KC (7:40 ET): Moderate chance for a late start with rain potentially moving in around first pitch but they should get nine innings in regardless. 10-15 mph winds mostly blowing right to left, a bit OUT to left at times.

• PIT @ CHC (7:40 ET): Potential for some light rain. Winds blowing IN from right around 10-15 mph. Bump to pitchers at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.3k | vs. COL

We’re probably looking at Snell being the chalkiest pitcher on the slate (DK: 43% pOwn%, FD: 33% pOwn%). No player is ever a “lock” in MLB DFS but Snell is about as close as it gets today. You have to go all the way back to July 20th to find a poor start out of him, and before that, May 19th was his last dud outing. So, two poor starts in exactly four months and 22 overall starts. In that span of 126.0 IP, Snell has rocked a 1.71 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, .167 opp AVG, and 34.2% kRate.

It’s been said ad nauseam, but getting the Rockies away from Coors Field is generally one of the best match-ups a pitcher could ask for. Against LHPs on the road this season, the Rockies own an MLB-worst 72 wRC+ and a 27.5% kRate (2nd highest). With only a couple more turns through the rotation, Snell can all but lock up the NL Cy Young Award with a strong outing tonight, if he hasn’t already.

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.9k | vs. DET

Pepiot now has five MLB games under his belt and even though his last outing was arguably his worst thus far, he still only surrendered 4 ER across 6.0 IP and it was encouraging to see him break into a 90-pitch count workload for the first time this season. A depleted Dodgers rotation is going to rely heavily on Pepiot in the postseason, so they should continue to try to get him stretched out to a pitch count in the mid-to-upper 90s. In his 27.0 IP this season, Pepiot owns some rock-solid results with a 2.00 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 0.63 WHIP, 2.0% BB% and he has allowed a minuscule 23.6% HardHit% with a .213 opp wOBA. He’ll draw a Detroit Tigers opponent that owns an MLB-worst 68 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks, alongside a lofty 27.8% kRate (4th highest). The Dodgers (-260 ML) trail only Blake Snell and the Padres (-310 ML) as the heaviest favorites on today’s slate.

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.4k | vs. CLE

This is clearly a high-risk play but the same can be said about most/all of the cheap pitchers on today’s slate. Marsh is the expected bulk reliever behind opener Steven Cruz today. After a rocky start to his rookie campaign, Marsh, the Royals’ No. 2 ranked prospect (FanGraphs) has settled into this “long reliever” role quite well as of late. There were a couple of starts mixed in, but Marsh has scored at least 15.3 DKFP/27 FDFP in five of his last six appearances -- four of those being bullpen outings. If we exclude the one blow-up start against the Red Sox, Marsh has put up a respectable 3.28 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, .215 opp AVG, and a stellar 32.1% kRate in those other recent five games. We’re kind of cherry-picking a bit, but the main point is that Marsh has generally been pitching well, he’s shown excellent strikeout upside, and the bullpen role seems to be helping him to settle in at the MLB level.

The Guardians are not an easy team to strike out (19.8% kRate vs. RHPs L30 Days -- 6th lowest), which makes the Marsh DFS play even riskier since K upside is his main draw, but they’re an average-at-best offense that has a 90 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month. Marsh makes more sense as a contrarian SP2 GPP play on DraftKings but I’d think FanDuel players would be happy if he can post one of those 35 FDFP scores as well. Marsh should be virtually un-owned on this slate while the Guardians look to be one of the highest-owned stacks of the day. He would certainly set lineups apart from the masses that will be looking to jam in those ace pitchers today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.8k, FD: $11.5k | vs. PHI

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $11.3k, FD: $10.9k | @ OAK

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | vs. SF

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. TOR

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

+ Rangers: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 7th on the slate).

+ Houck has displayed extreme traditional splits so we’ll want to favor the Rangers lefty bats today -- against LHBs, Houck has surrendered a 6.70 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .379 opp wOBA, .260 opp ISO, and 2.23 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Rangers have been excellent at home versus RHPs this season: .838 OPS (2nd), .357 wOBA (2nd), .222 ISO (2nd), and 125 wRC+ (2nd).

+ The Rangers have been the No. 1 home offense this season, averaging 5.83 runs/gm, and Globe Life Field has ranked as the #3 hitter’s park and #1 home run park.

+ The Red Sox have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.11 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and .277 opp AVG.

- Houck has allowed an average distance of 130.1 feet on batted balls over the last month (top 90th percentile).

- The Rangers have been less potent in recent weeks with just a pedestrian 101 wRC+ L30 Days.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Leoady Taveras

Bargain Bat: Evan Carter

San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

+ Feltner (first MLB game since 5/13) is a low-quality starter who has struggled even when pitching away from Coors Field this season -- overall, he has posted a 5.86 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, 1.75 WHIP, and .343 opp wOBA.

+ The Padres come in swinging some hot bats with a 133 wRC+ over the last week.

+ The Padres have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2 Weeks.

+ The Rockies bullpen continues to be one of the worst in the MLB -- over the last month, they own a 7.20 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, and .317 opp AVG.

+ Every Padres batter has a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

-/+ Padres: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-11th on the slate).

- Petco Park is the #3 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres average just 4.34 runs/gm at home (vs. 5.03 runs/gm away).

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Bargain Bat: Luis Campusano/Matthew Batten

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

+ Every Orioles batter has a < 5% pOwn%.

+ Brown has pitched recently well against the A’s and Tigers but, even with those games included, over his last five starts he has accumulated a poor 7.29 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and .363 opp wOBA.

+ Over the last month, Brown has ranked in the bottom 15th percentile in average exit velocity (90.9 mph) and bottom 20th percentile in barreled balls allowed (seven).

+ The Orioles have been the No. 4 road offense averaging 5.57 runs/gm away (vs. 4.64 runs/gm at home).

+ Against RHPs on the road over the last month (297 PA), the O’s have posted a .310 AVG, .879 OPS, .371 wOBA, .212 ISO, and 138 wRC+.

-/+ The Astros bullpen has been fairly mediocre over the past month.

- Orioles: 4.1 implied runs (ranks T-17th on the slate).

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn

Bargain Bat: Adam Frazier

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK; $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Miguel Diaz/Alex Faedo (RHPs), DET

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

3B/OF Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Drew Rom (LHP), STL

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), CWS

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Tommy Pham, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

3B Yoan Moncada, CWS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jackson Rutledge (RHP), WAS

OF Mark Canha, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Rom (LHP), STL

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Miguel Diaz/Alex Faedo (RHPs), DET

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

2B/3B Matthew Batten, SD | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B Dominic Smith, WAS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Rafael Devers MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Juan Soto MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!