Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/16 | Only a Few Big Friday Baseball Slates Remaining! ⌛

September 16, 2022

Verlander is back on the mound today, but should we trust him? We'll hit on that below along with some other top pitching and stack options to consider for today's 14-game MLB slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone is stocked up on coffee, snacks, antacids, and your adult beverage(s) of choice because we have a loaded weekend of sports ahead of us. There are only three huge Friday MLB slates remaining on the season so, as I’ve reiterated a couple of times this week, get in on the action while ya can! Today we’re digging into this behemoth 14-game main slate, and, as you might expect, this one has it all; aces, value pitching, big-time stacks, sneaky stacks ready to pop off, and essentially no weather issues to worry about. This should be a fun one so let’s dig in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

The forecast for this massive slate is about as worry-free as one could hope for. No PPD or delay threats anywhere on the board! There are just a few games with some notable winds to mention, but even those shouldn’t have much impact on the games.

CWS @ DET (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

LAD @ SF (10:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds near 15 mph blowing OUT to left/center, but, as always, Oracle Park mitigates wind factor.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

A brief note on the top-priced arm on the slate, Justin Verlander ($11k/$11k). He does draw a nice match-up against the A’s but this is his first start since 8/28 following a stint on the IL with a calf injury. I haven’t seen mention of any sort of pitch count restriction, and my guess, since it was a lower-body injury and not an arm issue, is that he should handle at least *most* of a full workload today. But, with the postseason looming, the Astros also don’t have any major incentive to push Verlander considering they hold a 13-game lead in the AL West and have all but locked up a bye in the playoffs. Overall, Verlander should be “fine” today but I wouldn’t necessarily expect a ceiling game.

 

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ LAA

Ray didn’t have a stellar game in his last outing (vs. ATL), but he was rolling right along in his recent starts prior. He has dominated the Angels in three previous meetings this season: 20.0 IP, 30 K (39.0% kRate!), 1.80 ERA, 1.98 xFIP, and a .197 opp AVG. It is worth noting that Mike Trout did not play in two of those three games, and Shohei Ohtani sat for one. The Angels have a 125 wRC+ and only an 18.3% kRate vs. LHPs over the last two weeks. However, expanded over the last month (vs. LHPs), those numbers go to a 101 wRC+ and 23.8% kRate. If Ray manages to keep Trout and Ohtani in check, he should be able to coast against the rest of the Angels lineup.

 

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.1k | @ ARI

It really is “feast or famine” with Blake Snell and there is never any true way to know if he is going to dominate across six or seven innings while putting up double-digit strikeouts, or get shelled and not make it out of the fourth inning. But let’s anticipate the former result because the D-Backs have recently been terrible against lefty pitching. Over the last two weeks against lefties (166 plate appearances), Arizona is hitting for a meager .187 AVG with a .235 wOBA and 47 wRC+ while posting a slightly above-average 22.9% kRate. Snell racked up 10 Ks, allowed just four hits (one ER), and came away with 28.5 DKFP/49 FDFP when he faced this D-Backs team 11 days ago. I like his chances of producing a similar performance this evening. Also, oddly enough, he has been a bit better on the road this season (+21.4% more FP while away).

Corey Kluber (RHP), TB | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. TEX

Kluber looks like a quality option we can look to when spending down at pitcher today. I have reservations about attacking the Rangers when it’s a lefty facing them, but not so much against righties, like Kluber. The Rangers' two-week split vs. RHPs: .222 AVG, 90 wRC+, 26.2% kRate (6th highest). Kluber has also been much more reliable in the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana field. Here is a breakdown of his home/road splits this season:

Home: 3.74 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 0.96 HR/9, 23.0% kRate

Road: 5.05 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, 1.33 HR/9, 18.0% kRate

All-in-all, he has averaged a massive +58.4% more fantasy points at home. It’s a nice spot for him to produce an outing somewhere in the range of 20 DKFP/40 FDFP.

Also Consider:

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.4k | vs. PHI

Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. KC

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | @ WAS

Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Bullpen

This Cardinals stack has fallen flat lately, even in strong match-ups. They were one of the hotter teams in the league back in August but have cooled off considerably in September. If we look at their home splits going back over the last month, they rank third in the MLB with a 127 wRC+, so the upside is there. Perhaps a date with what appears to be a Reds bullpen game can spark some big-time offensive output. The Reds relievers have been performing a bit better recently, but they have still posted a poor 1.46 WHIP in the last two weeks (8th highest), and they’ve been pretty reliant on strikeouts (26.6% kRate), but the Cardinals do not strike out often (17.2% kRate over the last month, lowest in MLB).

CIN Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Corey Dickerson | Sneaky Bat: Albert Pujols (7% pOwn%)

Seattle Mariners vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

The Mariners could fall under the “sneaky stack” section because I don’t believe they’ll draw much attention today. But they have posted a 121 wRC+ vs. RHPs (L2Wks) which ranks them 8th in the MLB. They’re also facing the faltering RHP Michael Lorenzen who has a slate-worst 1.85 WHIP over his last five starts to go with a 7.15 ERA (note: only one MLB start since July 1st). The Mariners are responsible for some of Lorenzen’s recent struggles after hanging nine runs on 11 hits in his two combined starts (8.0 IP) against them back in June. In general, the Mariners have played well when facing the Angels, with whom they have a .341 team wOBA and 128 wRC+ against this season.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh | Sneaky Bat: Carlos Santana (7% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

I’m compelled to throw a Braves low-owned stack mention in the mix here since every current Atlanta hitter is coming in under 10% pOwn%. After an off day which followed a lackluster eight-game west coast road trip, they’re back at home and will get to face a lefty on the mound (ATL 119 wRC+ vs. LHPs this season, ranks 3rd in MLB). Ranger Suarez (3.62 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 1.33 WHIP) is a quality southpaw, though he has had some less-than-stellar outings recently. The Braves do also get an offensive (and clubhouse morale) boost with the return of 2B Ozzie Albies (foot) to the lineup for the first time since June 13th. The Phillies bullpen has also been very ‘so-so’ recently.

PHI Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson | Sneaky Bat: Ozzie Albies (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Julio Rodrieguez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Richards (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

2B Gleyber Torres | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

2B/3B Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Trevor Richards (RHP), TOR

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

1B/OF Wil Myers | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Corey Dickerson | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Reds Bullpen

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Blake Snell OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | -130 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the DFS pitcher spotlight, Snell continues to be a volatile pitcher but his elite 31.8% kRate makes him a candidate to regularly hit the over on his strikeout prop. He’s thrown at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts and the D-Backs have displayed some major struggles against LHPs in recent weeks (.187 AVG, .235 wOBA, 47 wRC+, 22.9% kRate L2Wks). Snell has also been a bit better on the road this season and just recorded 10 strikeouts against the D-Backs 11 days ago.

 

Elvis Andrus OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Seemingly out of nowhere, Elvis Andrus has become one of the most productive players in baseball. In the month of September (min. 40 PA), he is sporting a .350 AVG (ranks 16th in MLB), a .453 wOBA (13th), and a 203 wRC+ (11th). He’s hit for multiple bases in six of his last seven games and, while Tigers’ RHP Matt Manning is no slouch, I’ll look for Andrus to continue hitting on this prop today -- especially at plus-money odds. Andrus’ position out of the leadoff spot also gives him a shot at seeing an extra at-bat against a bad Detroit bullpen as well.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It can also identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!