Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/15 | Short Slate, Tall Ambitions!

September 15, 2022

Dicey pitching could lead to big offense on this Thursday's small slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Thursday brings us a short slate -- five games on the DraftKings slate, six games on the FanDuel slate (starts at 6:40 ET w/ the PHI @ MIA game). On DraftKings, keep in mind that the main slate won’t lock until 7:20 ET with the exclusion of that PHI @ MIA match-up. We’ll keep things brief today since I know many will be prepping for the Thursday Night Football NFL showdown slate as well! Let’s have a profitable DFS evening, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Reminder: PHI/MIA is not on the DraftKings main slate.

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Nothing to really worry about on this slate. There could be a small amount of rainfall in the KC @ MIN game but a brief delay seems like the worst outcome there.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.9k | vs. OAK

McCullers only has five starts and 28.2 IP under his belt this season so he’s personally still rounding into mid-season form. He turned in the best performance of his season against the Angels last Friday (7.0 IP, 105 pitches, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 6 K, 24.8 DKFP/43 FDFP). He’s now sporting a 2.20 ERA on the year, and while his 4.38 xFIP indicates some regression may be coming, perhaps that won’t happen just yet as he takes on Oakland this evening. The A’s can be pesky but they remain a fairly average offense (102 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 13th) while offering up decent strikeout potential to opposing pitchers (26.0% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks, 8th highest). This is a good chance for LMC to pick up a win bonus as well since the Astros check in as big -290 home favorites.

Drey Jameson (RHP), ARI | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. SD

Pitching on this slate is unexciting at best, and downright ugly if we’re being truly honest. D-Backs' No. 4 prospect (No. 71 in MLB) Drey Jameson makes his MLB debut today and checks in at the stone minimum of $4k on DraftKings. SP2 punt? Why not? It’s risky, but so is any other pitcher on this slate outside of McCullers. And even he could be one of those random pitchers that Oakland decides to tee off on.

Jameson averaged over five innings per start in Triple-A this year, so he should pitch fairly deep into this game. He has posted a horrid 6.95 ERA in Triple-A, though his 4.96 xFIP is two runs lower than his ERA, which makes it a bit more palatable. It looks like he has really just fallen victim to the BABIP monster (.315 BABIP in Triple-A). He has averaged right around a strikeout per inning and, as long as he doesn’t get rocked, he could return value on his $4,000 price tag. The Padres have been pretty bad against RHPs lately, hitting just .213 with a .285 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and 23-7% kRate over the last two weeks (all bottom 10 offensive numbers).

Also Consider:

Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

Anderson hasn’t pitched much this season but two of his four appearances have come against this Cardinals offense. In those two appearances, he combined for just 2.2 IP after giving up eight combined runs to St. Louis. Yeesh. He likely won’t pitch deep into this game, which leaves a bad Reds bullpen (1.52 WHIP L2Wks) likely tasked with pitching the majority of the innings tonight. The Cardinals will have a chance to tee off on some bad pitching this evening.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman | Sneaky Bat: Albert Pujols (12% pOwn%)

Houston Astros vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

Kaprielian has been allowing a ton of runners on base lately. He ranks last among today’s poor pitching pool with a 1.90 WHIP across his previous five starts. He’s also a low strikeout pitcher (15.1% kRate L20 starts) facing an Astros team that is difficult to strike out, so a ton of contact will be made by Astros hitters in this game. If they find the gaps or send a couple over the fence, this stack will start to add up the fantasy points quickly. That A’s bullpen has also been terrible with a 6.80 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (L2Wks).

OAK Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman | Sneaky Bat: Aledmys Diaz (11% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

This is pretty much a small slate leverage call here since McCullers is expected to be the highest-owned pitcher. The A’s have plated 25 runs in their last three games so they’re on a mini hot streak. And, as mentioned in his highlighted segment above, while McCullers does sport a 2.20 ERA through his 28.2 IP this season, his 4.38 xFIP does indicate that he’s been getting fairly lucky. Even rolling out a small two or three-man A’s stack would set you apart from the crowd today. That Astros bullpen has been dealing some heat though.

HOU Bullpen Rating: 9/10

Favorite OAK Bats: Sean Murphy, Seth Brown, Dermis Garcia | Sneaky Bat: Ramon Laureano (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Drey Jameson (RHP), ARI

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $5k, FD: $4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jake McCarthy | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

1B Jose Miranda | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

2B/3B Brendan Donovan | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

1B/OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

3B Gio Urshela | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Stone Garrett | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jake McCarthy OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases | +475 (DraftKings) | 0.75 Units

Ahh man, I was so close to highlighting this same prop yesterday. Of course, I didn’t. And, of course, McCarthy stole a late bag. But McCarthy now has nine stolen bases in his last 20 games so to say “he has the green light” would be an understatement. He has at least one stolen base in five of his last nine games so, even though it is an unlikely prop to cash, I think we have to throw a little wager at these +475 odds.

 

Drey Jameson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts | -108 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Jameson makes his debut tonight as the No. 4 prospect in the D-Backs system and No. 71 prospect in all of baseball. He has posted an ugly 6.95 ERA in Triple-A this year across 114.0 IP but he’s also recording around a strikeout per inning and typically pitches into the sixth inning. The Padres are struggling at the plate but they’ll probably still do some damage against the inexperienced Jameson tonight. However, even if Jameson does have a poor debut, he may be kept on the mound for a while because he can’t pitch much worse than how the D-Backs bullpen has been pitching lately. The Padres have a 23.7% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks so if Arizona gives Jameson 5+ innings of work, he should be able to hit the over on 3.5 Ks.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It can also identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!