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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It feels like it has been a while, but we’re finally back in the saddle with a proper MLB slate today! 13 games land on the main slate ticket, and it’s looking like a fun one with strong pitching and great hitters/stack options! Game selection will also be identical for both DraftKings and FanDuel main slates for the first time in a few days. Also, it looks like we’ll buck the bad weather trend from this past week with no games expected to have any weather delay/postponement concerns! Love it. Let’s crack the code! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CIN @ NYM (7:10 ET): Cooler temps in the mid-60s with 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from left. Strong pitching weather in what is already one of the better pitcher’s parks.

• TEX @ CLE (7:10 ET): More cool temps here (mid-60s) with light 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from right/center. Another game where pitchers could receive a weather bump.

• DET @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11k | @ ARI

Consistency and baseball are not two things that mix very often, but Steele has been about as steady as it gets this season. Spanning his previous 10 starts (61.2 IP), Steele has put up an impressive 2.48 ERA, 2.76 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, and 28.3% kRate while scoring NO LESS than 15.7 DKFP/27 FDFP in that span with a ceiling performance of 43.6 DKFP/70 FDFP. For the most part, he sticks around those sort of 20 DKFP/35 FDFP scores but he’s been putting up some of his better fantasy performances of the season over his last handful of starts. A major part of Steele’s success has been his ability to limit hard contact -- a category in which he leads all qualified MLB pitchers with just a 27.1% HardContact% allowed this season. The NL Cy Young Award race has essentially become a two-man battle between Steele and the Padres’ Blake Snell. Steele and the Cubs have more important matters at hand, like clinching an NL wild card berth, but you can bet that making a strong push for the NL CYA is in the back of his mind down this final stretch of the MLB regular season.

Steele takes on a D-Backs team in a second consecutive start following a Sept. 9th outing where he held them to a single run on six hits across seven innings while putting up six strikeouts and earning 22.2 DKFP/40 FDFP. There is always some reason for hesitation when a pitcher faces the same offense in back-to-back starts, but Steele’s ultra-consistency puts most of those concerns to rest. The D-Backs have posted just a 77 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month, ranking them 27th in the MLB. They are tough customers when it comes to striking out (17.5% kRate vs. LHPs L30 Days, 4th lowest in MLB) but Steele has shown an elevated kRate as of late and he should be a strong bet to notch 5-to-8 Ks on top of his likely quality start (6.0+ IP & ≤ 3 ER). Maybe we won’t see a ceiling performance out of him this evening, but it’s hard to beat the floor that Steele provides.

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | @ LAA

Skubal is another southpaw hurler who has been locked in as of late. Across his last five starts (30.0 IP), he has procured a 2.70 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, .182 opp AVG, and a healthy 33.1% kRate while averaging 24.5 DKFP/42 FDFP per game. Skubal spent a lengthy time on the IL to begin the season, but in his 12 starts since returning, he has put up good-to-great fantasy scores in all but three outings.

Whether or not Shohei Ohtani makes his return to the Angels lineup today (hasn’t played since 9/3 -- listed day-to-day with an oblique injury) is of no real concern when it comes to Skubal’s DFS viability today. Skubal has been excellent against lefty batters, allowing a meager .176 opp wOBA and 0.62 WHIP, that even a hitter of Ohtani’s caliber would have some issues. Skubal has also shown his best strikeout splits against RHBs (34.6% kRate) and he’s given up just a .282 wOBA, 0.35 HR/9 Rate, and 2.24 xFIP to that side of the plate. If the Angels want to jam in as many RHBs as they can just because they’re facing a lefty, I say go right ahead. The Angels limp in with an awful 59 wRC+ and 28.6% kRate over the last week and I doubt they “figure things out” against Skubal tonight.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | vs. CIN

We’ve got some decent value pitching options that will be worth a look on this slate, and David Peterson will garner the spotlight. I can’t say I’d ever be overly thrilled about slotting Peterson into lineups, as it hasn’t been a great year for him. However, while his 5.34 ERA looks ugly on paper, a fair amount of bad luck has inflated that ERA based on his all-around solid 3.76 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA, which are better indications of where his ERA “should” be. Peterson also provides solid strikeout potential with a 24.5% kRate and 12.4% Swinging Strike Rate on the year. It’s also nice to see that he has worked back up to a traditional starter’s workload after throwing at least 93 pitches in three of his last four starts. Furthermore, he’s at home today where he has averaged +52.3% more FPPG, and weather conditions at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field will be pretty ideal for pitchers (cool w/ winds blowing in).

The Reds have plenty of young talent in the lineup but, overall, they’re a fairly average offense that has put up a middling .331 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and 22.6% kRate vs. LHPs over the last month. Cincinnati is also resting Elly De La Cruz today, which takes a speedy power bat out of the picture. We should expect five or six strong innings out of Peterson in this spot.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ STL

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9.1k, $8.7k | @ NYM

Seth Lugo (RHP), SD | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | @ OAK

Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. DET

Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | @ MIL

Zack Thompson (LHP), STL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

+ Twins: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Scholtens has had a rough last month -- over his last five starts, he’s put together a poor 7.54 ERA, 5.66 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, .340 opp AVG, 2.0 HR/9 Rate, and 10.9% kRate.

+ Plenty of sneaky power in the Twins lineup which has, overall, been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2 Weeks: .808 OPS (8th), .347 wOBA (7th), .227 ISO (5th), 123 wRC+ (8th), and 36.2% HardContact% (8th).

+ The White Sox have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month, including the third-worst ERA (5.94) and fourth-worst WHIP (1.58).

+ Overall, the Twins remain a very affordable stack option, top-to-bottom.

- Twins are expected to be one of the highest-owned stacks on the slate.

- Scholtens averages +20.0% more FPPG at home.

Favorite MIN Bats: Royce Lewis, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa

Bargain Bat: Max Kepler

Texas Rangers vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CLE

+ Giolito’s last five starts have produced a 7.48 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, .385 opp wOBA, and a huge 3.60 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Rangers’ offense has been white hot, scoring 44 runs over their last five games (8.8 runs/gm) -- in that span, they’ve ranked 1st in the following categories: .320 AVG, 1.009 OPS, .419 wOBA, .274 ISO, and 169 wRC+

+ Against Giolito’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, slider, and changeup (those three pitches make up 98.5% of his arsenal), the Rangers rank 3rd in AVG, 4th in wOBA, 4th in xwOBA, 5th in ISO, 2nd in average exit velocity, and 3rd in home runs.

+ The Guardians bullpen L30 Days: 4.82 xFIP (ranks 22nd), 1.47 WHIP (24th), and .267 opp AVG (24th).

+ Outside of perhaps Corey Seager, this should be a low-owned stack with every Rangers hitter having a ≤ 5% pOwn%.

-/+ Rangers: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-9th among non-Coors teams).

- Progressive Field has been the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season and cool weather conditions will favor pitchers.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien (+ Mitch Garver if he plays)

Bargain Bat: Robbie Grossman/Evan Carter

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), BAL

+ Every Rays hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Flaherty was a trade acquisition meant to strengthen a lackluster Orioles’ rotation -- he pitched well in his O’s debut, but in the five starts since then (21.2 IP), Flaherty has struggled to an 8.72 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .326 opp AVG, .409 opp wOBA, and 2.50 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Rays have been a top-10 offense across their last 10 games and rank 8th with a 117 wRC+ in that span.

+ Against Flaherty’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, slider, and curveball, the Rays rank 5th or better in wOBA, xwOBA, AVG, ISO, and HRs.

+ The Rays have been the 5th best road offense this season, averaging 5.38 runs/gm away.

- The Orioles boast a stellar bullpen that ranks top-five in ERA, xFIP, and WHIP over the last month.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz

Bargain Bat: Josh Lowe

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CLE

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Zack Thompson (LHP), STL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), BAL

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), BAL

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

1B Elehuris Montero, COL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Steven Kwan, CLE | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF DJ Stewart, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

C Luis Campasano, SD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), OAK

OF Robbie Grossman, TEX | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CLE

OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

OF Evan Carter, TEX | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), BAL

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

3B/OF Cavan Biggio, TOR | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

2B/3B Kyle Farmer, MIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corey Seager MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Justin Steele MORE than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!