Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/14 | Preparing for Some Midweek Mayhem

September 14, 2022

It's a tricky slate to dissect but there are some standout pitchers, stacks, and props we can look to take advantage of today...

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Today marks three weeks remaining on the MLB regular season schedule, with the final games being played on Wednesday, October 5th. Of course, we’ll have some playoff slates shortly after that but those will be limited to four games at the most for any given slate. So, let’s enjoy these slates while we can!

A mid-sized eight-game main slate rolls around this evening. I’m a little indifferent towards this one. Pitching is “alright, but nothing crazy exciting,” and the same goes for the offensive/stack outlook. But we’ll see what today’s games ultimately have in store for us once they get underway. Let’s just try to predict how things will shake out as best as we can!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to center/right close to 10 mph.

KC @ MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds blowing IN from right at 10-15 mph. A decent little bump to pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | @ STL

Prior to his last game, Burnes was showing a little late-season fatigue and was definitely not pitching up to his capabilities. Then he goes back out there and throws an absolute gem against the Giants last Thursday (8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 14 K, 45.6 DKFP/73 FDFP). It has now been six days since that game so perhaps the extra day of rest will prove to be beneficial for Burnes. He may not draw the best match-up today on the road against the Cardinals, but they have cooled off at the plate recently and their 92 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks ranks them 19th in the MLB. Regardless, they remain a tough team to strike out with a 15.3% kRate vs. RHPs in that same span (third-lowest). Though, it is worth noting, that Burnes has been incredible in his three starts against the Cardinals this season: 21.0 IP, 0.43 ERA, 1.96 xFIP, .111 opp AVG, 0.52 WHIP, 36.0% kRate. In those three games against the Cards, he averaged 33.6 DKFP/55 FDFP per game. Those are some seriously elite numbers but “will they continue?” is the real question. It’s going to be a little risky paying up for Burnes here but there is *no question* that he has the most raw upside of any pitcher on the slate.

Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. KC

I’d expect Gray to be the mid-range chalk at pitcher today but it’s hard to hate on it. The Royals have been awful against RHPs lately -- L2Wks: .204 AVG, .268 wOBA, 69 wRC+, 23.3% kRate. Gray has been great against the Royals in his two previous meetings against them this season where he allowed just one run on five combined hits across 12.0 IP while also racking up 14 Ks and winning both games. Gray is also at home today where he has posted a 2.97 ERA and 27.7% kRate along with +23.8% more fantasy points, on average. Compare that to his 3.24 ERA and, most notably, 19.1% kRate when pitching on the road. On top of all of this, the Twins (-200 ML odds) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and there will also be some 10-15 mph winds blowing in from right field, thus providing a further bump to pitchers.

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. OAK

There isn’t much enticing pitcher value on the board today, but Dunning is one guy who feels like a viable option. This is the softest match-up he’s drawn in a few weeks (since facing OAK on 8/18) and he’s also at home today where he has averaged a massive +69.4% more fantasy points. That is no surprise given his 3.35 ERA and 22.5% kRate at home versus a 5.62 ERA and 16.7% kRate on the road. The A’s continue to randomly put licks on opposing starting pitchers but they still rate out as a bottom-10 offense and provide decent strikeout upside (24.9% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks, 10th highest). If you need the savings for bigger bats, Dunning may be the guy to go to today.

Also Consider:

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CHC

Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR | DK: $8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

The Rangers have been a profitable stack when given the right circumstances. One of those circumstances has been when they’re facing a lefty at home. Here are their results over the last month vs. LHPs at home (199 plate appearances): .317 AVG, .407 wOBA, .261 ISO, 172 wRC+. Fantastic numbers all around. Of course, that just tells us what has happened and not necessarily what’s *going* to happen, but we gotta give them some consideration today against LHP JP Sears who has a 1.80 WHIP over his last five starts. The A’s bullpen has also been getting rocked themselves and has put up a 6.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and .300 opp AVG over the last two weeks.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung | Sneaky Bat: Nathaniel Lowe (3% pOwn%)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

It’s a much more advantageous spot for the Dodgers today as they face off with Zach Davies who has posted a 1.48 WHIP over his last five starts and a slate-high 39.3% HardContact% over the last month. Davies hasn’t pitched more than 5.2 innings in nine straight starts, so the Dodgers will also likely see some extra at-bats against a spiraling D-Backs bullpen. Over the last two weeks, D-Backs relievers have accounted for an MLB-worst 7.59 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, and 1.80 WHIP. They’re allowing 1.90 HR/9 in that span as well (second-worst).

ARI Bullpen Rating: 1/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Will Smith | Sneaky Bat: Freddie Freeman (4% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

I usually don’t want any part of a team facing Wainwright, specifically when he is pitching at home, where he’s typically a tough guy to do some damage against. However, that has not been the case recently after Wainwright allowed 8 ER on 18 hits across his last two starts (both at home). While Waino has been a machine throughout his career, he is also 41 years old and has pitched 173.0 innings this year; ya have to wonder if fatigue is beginning to be an issue for him. The Brewers are a pretty average offense but if the Cubs and Nationals were able to beat up on Wainwright recently, I don’t see why the Brew Crew couldn’t. Wainwright was also decent at best in three of his four games pitched against Milwaukee this season and the Cardinals bullpen has been struggling (5.20 ERA, 5.03 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .292 opp AVG over the L2Wks).

STL Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen | Sneaky Bat: Rowdy Tellez

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

2B/OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

1B/OF Joey Meneses | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

3B Eduardo Escobar | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Jake McCarthy | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

1B Luis Arraez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Corbin Carroll | DK; $3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

1B/2B Mark Mathias | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

3B Josh Jung | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. JP Sears (LHP) OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

Gotta love some Dodgers to hit some homers tonight as they face off with a mediocre starter in Zach Davies (1.50 HR/9 Rate to RHBs) and a D-Backs bullpen that has been atrocious lately. I mentioned it above in the stack section but Arizona’s bullpen has an MLB-worst 7.59 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, and 1.80 WHIP over the last two weeks along with a 1.90 HR/9 Rate (second-highest). Mookie has hit eight HRs in 24 career games played at Chase Field, including three HRs in his last five games played in this ballpark. I’m liking his home run hopes tonight as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Hits | +165 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

Who doesn’t love an Aaron Judge prop? Judge isn’t only hitting dingers. He’s smacked 19 hits over his last 10 games (10 singles, three doubles, six HRs) and has multiple hits in seven of those 10 games. He’s facing Boston SP Brayan Bello today, who has not given up a ton of power (.101 ISO and zero HRs allowed to RHBs) but he does allow a high average (.304 AVG to RHBs). Now, if anyone can take Bello deep, it’s going to be Judge. But, regardless of what *kind* of hits he gets, let’s just look for Judge to snag another multi-hit game at some nice +165 odds.

Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

In the month of September, Mountcastle is hitting .289 with a .408 wOBA, .311 ISO, and 171 wRC+. He’s accounted for 2+ bases in eight of his 12 games this month and a date with starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (.325 AVG, .395 wOBA allowed to RHBs) is never a bad thing. Also, it’s a small sample size, but Mountcastle is 5-for-10 in his career when playing at Nationals Park, which includes a double and a pair of home runs. 

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It can also identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!