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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Hump Day! There is plenty of MLB action popping off today, however, DraftKings and FanDuel had very different ideas on which games to include on their respective main slates. As you’ll see in the match-ups image below, the FanDuel main slate will include 10 games and get going at 6:35 ET while featuring all four of the games in that 6 o’clock ET window. However, for whatever reason, they chose to exclude the one nightcap game between the Padres and Dodgers. The DraftKings main slate will begin at 7:07 ET with its seven-game main slate, which does include Padres/Dodgers, but no 6 o’clock ET games. It’s a bit of a headache when it comes to writing up a slate since I try to cover the bases for both FD and DK players but what can ya do? We’ll mostly stick to spotlighting players and stacks within the six mutually shared games, but “FanDuel Only” and “DraftKings Only” plays will be mentioned as well. Anyhow, let’s get into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• STL @ BAL (6:35 ET): FanDuel Main Slate Only -- They’ll start this game dry but may have to finish it a little wet with some light/moderate rain expected in the later innings. Light winds blowing IN from left.

• NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET): Rain around BOS this afternoon and looks likely to linger into this evening. Good chance for a late start but once they get going, there should be no further issues. Run a pre-game forecast check here to make sure the forecast doesn’t look uglier, just in case.

• ARI @ BOS (7:10 ET): Similar to BOS, rain clearing around first pitch so there is moderate potential for a late start but they should be fine after that, if they even need to late start to begin with.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ NYM

There’s always a wide range of outcomes for Zac Gallen, especially on the road where he averages -40% less FPPG. However, after a couple of rough starts against the Dodgers and Orioles, he went out on the road and threw a CGSO three-hitter against a solid Cubs offense. There is a reason why Gallen was the NL Cy Young Award favorite for much of this season. Even though he has since dropped back behind Blake Snell and Justin Steele on the NL CYA odds leaderboard, we know that he can post a slate-breaking fantasy score in just about any match-up. The D-Backs are in the midst of the NL wild card battle as well, so they’ll need a top-notch performance out of their ace today.

Gallen will face a Mets team that has been a below-average offense over the last week (89 wRC+) and has been striking out a ton (28.6% kRate L7 Days). In 57 PA against the current Mets roster, Gallen has allowed just a .148 AVG, and .172 wOBA, while posting a sharp 31.6% kRate. Despite his road woes, in three previous starts at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field, he has come away with a 2.25 ERA and .186 opp AVG. Now that his DFS salaries have come back down to earth a little bit, we can feel fairly confident about rolling him out in lineups today.

Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. KC

Speaking of pitchers with a wide range of outcomes, within his last six starts, Clevinger has put up DFS scores of at least 23.9 DKFP/43 FDFP in four separate games while posting a ceiling of 36 DKFP/48 FDFP. However, he has also put up a -10.2 DKFP/-6 FDFP and a 4.7 DKFP/15 FDFP performance. So, consistency isn’t Clevinger’s forte, but the amount of upside he provides often makes him worth a gamble in DFS lineups. The fact that he is pitching at home today, where he boasts a higher kRate and +23.4% more FPPG, does alleviate some concerns.

The Royals have been another offense that has been sputtering as of late. Over the last week, they’re struggling with a 77 wRC+ alongside a high 28.9% kRate. Kansas City has also been, by far, the worst road offense in the MLB this season, averaging just 3.47 runs/gm on the road. If he’s on tonight, a 30 DKFP/50 FDFP score is well within the range of outcomes for Clevinger. At his modest mid-range salaries, we’ll roll the dice on that sort of potential. The White Sox are also moderate -150 ML favorites to win this game.

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIA

Milwaukee will be using RHP Trevor Megill as their opener today. After he clears one or two innings, Colin Rea is expected to come in and serve as the bulk reliever and cover around five innings. If you play Rea on FanDuel, you’re automatically forfeiting a chance at the quality start bonus, so this is much more of a DraftKings SP2 GPP play. Rea has been far from lights out this season, but for a $6,000 pitcher, we’re really just hoping for around 15-20 DKFP to reach value. He has secured at least 15.5 DKFP in five of his last nine outings, and at least 13.1 DKFP in four of his last five. Rea has also shown a ceiling of 24.9 DKFP this season, so it’s not as if there is zero upside. Over his last nine games, he’s rocking a respectable 4.12 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 21.9% kRate.

Home runs have been a big issue for Rea (1.81 HR/9 Rate) but, fortunately for him, the Marlins do not have a huge amount of power bats and they rank 23rd in HRs vs. RHPs this season. Miami has also posted a lackluster 90 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 22nd) and they’re averaging under 2.2 runs/gm over their last six games. If you need the salary savings, Rea makes some sense today and he could also snag a “cheap” win coming out of the bullpen.

Other Pitchers to Consider

*Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: N/A, FD: $11.8k | @ PHI

**Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.9k, FD: N/A | vs. SD

*Connor Phillips (RHP), CIN | DK: N/A, FD: $6.5k | @ DET

*FanDuel Main Slate Only

**DraftKings Main Slate Only

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

+ Astros: 5.2 implied runs.

+ The Astros have failed to do much in the first two games of this series but, overall, spanning their last eight games, they’ve been arguably the hottest offense in the MLB -- in that span against RHPs, they’ve posted a huge .355 AVG, 1.094 OPS, .456 wOBA, .323 ISO, and 198 wRC+.

+ Blackburn (3.88 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP) has been the A’s best starter but he has struggled against the Astros’ current roster: 108 PA, .286 opp AVG, .374 opp wOBA, .255 opp ISO, and 15.7% kRate.

+ If the Astros can knock Blackburn out early, they’ll see extra at-bats against an A’s bullpen that has the second-worst xFIP (5.27) over the last month.

- The Astros are less potent offensively at home where they average 4.50 runs/gm (vs. 5.82 runs/gm away).

- Blackburn is a solid starter and he has put up a very respectable 2.52 ERA over his last nine starts.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Michael Brantley

Chicago White Sox vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

Note: Cruz is serving as the opener, and Marsh as the bulk reliever.

+ White Sox: 4.9 implied runs.

+ Cruz only has 5.0 IP in the MLB this season, and he hasn’t been great (7.20 ERA, 5.99 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, 53.3% HardHit%) -- he was also awful in Triple-A this year, where he put up a 6.88 ERA and 5.10 xFIP across 17.0 IP.

+ Alex Marsh is also a subpar MLB pitcher -- he has some solid strikeout stuff (25.3% kRate), but in 56.0 IP, he has pitched to a 5.95 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, and has given up a slew of home runs (2.41 HR/9 Rate).

+ The White Sox are not a premiere offense but they have scored at least six runs in five of their last seven games.

+ Outside of Luis Robert Jr., the rest of these White Sox bats are all very affordable.

+ Royals have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.40 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, and 1.64 HR/9 Rate.

- Even in a strong pitching match-up, the floor is extremely low for this White Sox offense -- they’ve scored two runs or fewer in six of their last 11 games.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez

Bargain Bat: Andrew Vaughn

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Baltimore Orioles vs. Drew Rom (LHP), STL

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland A’s vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

+ 8-of-9 A’s hitters have a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ An A’s stack provides strong leverage versus a potentially chalky Hunter Brown (DK: 40% pOwn%, FD: 24% pOwn%).

+ Hunter Brown has struggled mightily over his last five starts: 8.50 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, .316 opp AVG, and .403 opp wOBA.

+ Brown averaged -29.9% less FPPG at home.

+ Perhaps to the surprise of many, the A’s have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs over the L2 Weeks: .273 AVG (5th), .836 OPS (5th), .353 OPS (5th), .245 ISO (1st), and 129 wRC+ (4th).

+ There is no shortage of affordable OAK bats -- besides Z. Gelof, the rest of the A’s starters are ≥ $3,200 on DK and ≥ $3,000 on FanDuel.

- The Astros have had a top-10 bullpen over the L2 Weeks.

- A’s: 3.8 implied runs.

Favorite OAK Bats: Zack Gelof, Ryan Noda, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: Seth Brown

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: N/A, FD: $5k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $4.1k | vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6k, FD: N/A | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

3B/SS Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5k, FD: N/A | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: N/A, FD: $3.5k | vs. Colin Selby (RHP), PIT

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $3.8k | vs. Drew Rom (LHP), STL

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

OF Tommy Pham, ARI | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

OF DJ Stewart, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: N/A, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jackson Rutledge (RHP), WAS

OF Mark Canha, MIL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Steven Cruz/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

1B Ryan Noda, OAK | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Edward Olivares, KC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

C Shea Langeliers, OAK | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

SS Jordan Lawler, ARI | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

OF Estevan Florial, NYY | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Participate in today’s HRCotD contest by retweeting this post!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Omar Narvaez MORE than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

Corey Seager MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!