Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/13 | Another 'Takedown Tuesday' Comes Around!

September 13, 2022

Jacob deGrom is the chalk du jour but we'll also be previewing some potential pitcher and stack leverage options for today's sizable slate.

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to lock in on another juicy Tuesday slate! We’ll have 11 games on the docket for DraftKings and 10 games over on FanDuel, excluding the TB @ TOR evening doubleheader game. It’s a deGrom pitching day, so you know what the general formula most lineups will follow: “jam deGrom in and find a few cheap bats to make it work.” That always leads to the pricey stacks going way under-owned… just something to keep in mind for the day! Let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Chance for a delay as storms clear the area this evening.

CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET, 6.5 O/U): Winds mostly blowing OUT to right around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.1k | @ BOS

The safe play is to simply find the extra budget to cram Jacob deGrom ($11.8k/$12k, vs. CHC) into lineups, but Cole would appear to be the go-to deGrom pivot in GPPs. With recent 11 K and 14 K strikeout performances within his previous three starts, Cole could realistically outscore deGrom today while checking in at half the ownership. The caveat is that he could also post up one of his patented dud performances. It isn’t the best match-up given Boston’s 130 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks to go along with a middling 21.3% kRate. However, Cole did put 12 Ks on the board the last time he faced this lineup back on July 17th, so the potential for a huge game is there.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.1k | vs. MIL

Any decent lefty pitcher will bring solid DFS potential against this Brewers lineup. Here are Milwaukee’s recent splits against LHPs:

Last two weeks: 128 plate appearances, .179 AVG, .258 wOBA, 62 wRC+, 27.3% kRate

Last month: 361 plate appearances, .198 AVG, .286 wOBA, 81 wRC+, 29.4% kRate

In his seven games since being traded to the Cardinals, Montgomery has boasted a 1.45 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, .200 opp AVG, 0.90 WHIP, and a 23.2% kRate. He has allowed either one run or zero in six of his seven St. Louis starts. When he faced the Brewers back on August 12th he pitched six scoreless four-hit innings while racking up eight strikeouts and scoring 29.9 DKFP/52 FDFP. A similar result could be in his wheelhouse today.

Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k | @ TEX

As you may expect, this is a risky play, but Waldichuk is the A’s top prospect and the No. 35 ranked prospect in the MLB. He possesses some noteworthy strikeout upside and won't break the bank as far as DFS salaries go. In 11 Triple-A starts this year, Waldichuk boasted a huge 34.0% kRate and 13.22 K/9. The Rangers can be a dangerous offense against lefties and I highly doubt Waldichuk escapes this game without giving up a few hits and at least a couple of runs. But the Rangers have also offered up a 26.6% kRate to LHPs over the last two weeks, the seventh-highest in the MLB during that stretch. If you’re trying to go against the grain, Waldichuk is worth a gamble in GPPs today.

Also Consider:

Jacob deGrom (RHP), NYM | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12k | vs. CHC

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.1k | @ SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago White Sox vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

The White Sox have been posting some big-time offensive numbers on the board recently, and they rank second in baseball with a .353 wOBA and 133 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Chad Kuhl is going to be someone ya want to attack any time he’s up in the rotation. Across his previous nine starts, Kuhl has come away with a 9.08 ERA, 5.42 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, .329 opp AVG, .456 opp wOBA, and 3.40 HR/9 Rate. Five of those nine starts came outside of Coors Field so that can’t really be used as a major excuse for his results which have taken place over the course of 2+ months at this point.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite CWS Bats: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu, Elvis Andrus | Sneaky Bat: Gavin Sheets (9% pOwn%)

Minnesota Twins vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

Bubic enjoyed a nice stretch of outings from July to early August but much of that momentum has quickly vanished. He’s sporting a cursed 6.66 ERA over his last five starts alongside an awful 1.91 WHIP while producing just a 12.7% kRate. The Twins have been a plus offense when facing lefties at home where they have a 118 wRC+ over the last month. When he faced the Twins in Minnesota a month ago, Bubic allowed 13 base runners (10 H, 3 BB) across his 5.2 IP. The Twins didn’t necessarily capitalize since they only produced four runs from all of that traffic, but Bubic is clearly a pitcher they've proven that they can do some damage against. Outside of Carlos Correa, pretty much all of these Twins bats are cheap.

KC Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite MIN Bats: Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, Kyle Garlick | Sneaky Bat: Jake Cave (6% pOwn%)

DraftKings Only: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), TB

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

We’re looking at a lot of single-digit ownership percentages on most, if not all, Dodgers bats today. It makes sense as to why; they remain a super expensive stack that doesn’t pair well in chalk deGrom lineups, and they’re up against a quality starter in Merrill Kelly. The Dodgers have not faced Kelly since May 28th, but in his three starts against LAD, Kelly has posted a 9.69 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and .358 opp AVG. If the Dodgers can force Kelly off the mound early, they’ll get some extra at-bats against a D-Backs bullpen that has been awful: 8.41 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 1.82 WHIP, 1.99 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Max Muncy (3% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

2B/OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.7k, FD: N/A | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), TB

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

2B/SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

2B/3B Brendan Donovan | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Bush (RHP), MIL

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

C Shea Langeliers | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Eloy seems to be seeing a baseball the size of a beach ball at the plate right now. Over his last five games, he has 11 hits on a .524 AVG, .640 wOBA, and .524 ISO with three home runs. It’s not sustainable production, but Jimenez has been hot since the All-Star break so it’s no surprise to see him go on these monstrous stretches. He’ll get to tee off on Chad Kuhl who, over his last nine starts, has posted a 9.08 ERA, 5.42 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, .329 opp AVG, .456 opp wOBA, and 3.40 HR/9 Rate. Against RHBs, like Jimenez, Kuhl’s splits have been even worse and he’s given up seven HRs in 76 RHBs faced during that nine-game stretch, resulting in a wild 4.30 HR/9 Rate. Let’s look for Eloy to send one out tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Eloy Jimenez OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

See; “Home Run Call of the Day” above. Eloy’s bat is just too hot right now and Chad likely won’t “Kuhl” him off. Maybe he won’t hit a dinger, but I do like Jimenez to at least smack a double into the gap or record multiple hits in this game -- either of which would cash this plus-money prop just as well.

Ken Waldichuk OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Waldichuk is still adjusting to life at the MLB level, but he profiles as a potential elite strikeout pitcher given his 34.0% kRate and 13.22 K/9 results in 11 Triple-A starts this year. He recorded six strikeouts in his MLB debut against the Nationals and he’s thrown 90+ pitches in each of his two MLB starts, so we know that he can pitch fairly deep into a game. Today, I like his chances of racking up at least five strikeouts against the Rangers who have been pretty strikeout-happy against LHPs lately -- 26.6% kRate over the last two weeks (7th highest in MLB).

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It also helps identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!