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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

MLB is the main show in town today and we’ll have another sizable slate to dive into! There are a couple of scheduling notes today. Game two of the KC @ CWS doubleheader shows up on the DraftKings slate but do not roster any players from there as no one will actually accrue fantasy points. FanDuel has also excluded that game. Game two of the NYY @ BOS doubleheader WILL be in play on DraftKings and players will accrue fantasy points from there. However, FanDuel has elected to leave that game off of their main slate altogether. So, nine mutually shared main slate match-ups today with the extra NYY @ BOS game included on DK. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Also, shout out to LineStar user bulletproof for the takedown last night! Congrats buddy!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET): Game Two (DK Slate Only) -- Moderate chance for a delay with rain in the area this evening. Double-check the forecast here closer to first pitch to make sure things don’t look worse than expected.

• ARI @ NYM (7:10 ET): Light 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

• TB @ MIN (7:40 ET): 10 mph winds but they’re mostly blowing left-to-right, a bit IN from left at times. Cooler temps in the 50s. Pretty solid pitching conditions.

• CHC @ COL (8:40 ET): Probably won’t be the whole game, but some 10 mph winds do look to shift OUT to left for much of this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $11.8k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIA

Peralta had his hot streak derailed in his last start on the road against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are not a good offense but they do have a knack of playing pretty well against great pitchers… for whatever reason. But I believe we can look for a bounce back out of Peralta today. In his seven starts before that last outing, he was absolutely dominant, pitching to a spectacular 1.71 ERA, 2.00 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, .158 opp AVG, and an eye-popping 44.2% kRate! Peralta’s performances were even better in the four home games during that stretch: 1.48 ERA, 1.03 xFIP, 0.49 WHIP, .111 opp AVG, and 53.6% kRate. Peralta is back at home today where he averages +36.3% more FPPG.

Brewers’ RHP Brandon Woodruff threw a six-hitter CGSO against this Marlins team yesterday while putting up seven Ks. It’s a big performance for Peralta to follow up but, while we can’t expect another CGSO, he should be able to suppress a Marlins offense that comes in hitting .227 with an 80 wRC+ against RHPs over the last week. They’re not an easy team to strike out but, as mentioned with Woodruff yesterday, they do have some guys in the (projected) lineup who have high kRates against RHPs (Chisholm, Burger, Hampson, and Sanchez all with 24.5% to 31.0% kRates vs. RHPs). Peralta is pricey but may be worth the spend-up today.

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAA

Woo now has 14 MLB starts under his belt and, overall, he has stitched together a solid rookie campaign with only four truly poor outings this season. He’ll be back on his home mound in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park (#1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) where he has excelled. While his home/road ERAs are identical at 4.50, he’s shown a massive jump in his strikeout rate -- 29.6% kRate at home versus a 19.3% kRate away. Some of the advanced metrics on Woo have also been impressive. He leads all pitchers on this slate with a low 31.2% HardHit% and 86.8 mph average exit velocity.

The Angels have been without Shohei Ohtani’s offensive services since September 4th (eight games). Ohtani was expected to return to the lineup yesterday before being a late scratch due to “not feeling right when taking swings.” He could be back today, but that’s far from a guarantee. In these last eight games versus RHPs, the Angels are hitting .236 with an 84 wRC+ and 23.6% kRate. They haven’t been completely inept, but far from good. Whether or not Ohtani suits up, Woo remains a solid SP target out of the mid-range. In two previous starts against the Angels this season (with Ohtani in the lineup), he has posted respectable DFS scores of 17.9 DKFP/34 FDFP and 17.5 DKFP/29 FDFP. Of note, both of those games were on the road in Anaheim. Given his track record of racking up more strikeouts at home, I’d say Woo has a much better chance of landing in the 20 DKFP/40 FDFP range tonight.

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k | @ COL

A general rule of thumb in MLB DFS is to simply avoid starting pitchers in Coors Field unless they’re a certified ace. Assad is not a certified ace, but he has looked like one at times on the road this season. In 41.1 IP away, Assad has pitched to an impressive 1.71 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .200 opp AVG, and 0.65 HR/9 Rate. He’s not typically big on the strikeouts, but he did put up back-to-back seven-strikeout performances in his last two road games against the Reds and Pirates.

The Rockies are obviously much better at home, but even the “much better” home version of this Rockies offense is fairly mediocre. When facing RHPs at home over the last month, Colorado ranks 21st with a 96 wRC+ while striking out at a high clip (25.1% kRate). It’s a gamble for sure, but Assad does do a good job at inducing ground balls (47.2% GB%), and the Cubs step in as heavy -190 ML favorites. Unless the Rockies earn some walks and/or single him to death, Assad brings some 20 DKFP/40 FDFP upside to GPP lineups today, likely at < 5% ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.3k | vs. OAK

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TB

Zack Littell (RHP), TB | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.4k | @ MIN

*Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYY

*(DK Main Slate Only)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Non-Coors Stacks

Houston Astros vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

+ Astros: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Spanning his last nine starts, Sears has pitched to a poor 5.72 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, .311 opp AVG, .403 opp wOBA, and 2.00 HR/9 Rate.

+ Astros have been strong vs. LHPs over the last month: .296 AVG, .904 OPS, .383 wOBA, .240 ISO, and 146 wRC+.

+ In 54 PA vs. Sears, the current Astros roster owns a .308 AVG, .372 wOBA, and 13.0% kRate.

+ The A’s bullpen owns an MLB-worst 5.79 xFIP over the last two weeks.

- Sears has allowed just one run on eight combined hits over his last two starts -- he also averaged +24.1% more FPPG in away games.

- The Astros offense has been less potent at home where they average 4.53 runs/gm (vs. 5.82 runs/gm away).

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick

Bargain Bat: Jose Abreu

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

+ D-Backs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ Butto is coming off of a quality start but, in limited action this season, he has posted a poor 5.62 xFIP and 1.57 WHIP.

+ Butto has been awful against RHPs, earning a 5.63 ERA, 7.50 xFIP, and 2.25 WHIP.

+ In 19 Triple-A starts this year, Butto pitched to a 5.93 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, and 1.68 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Mets bullpen has been a disaster over the last week, posting an MLB-worst 8.44 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and .324 opp AVG -- big boost for D-Backs stacks if they can knock Butto out of the game early.

-/+ The D-Backs have been fairly mediocre vs. RHPs over the last month -- their 106 wRC+ ranks 14th in that span.

- Citi Field has been the #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season -- though, some light winds blowing out to center will help fly balls carry just a bit further today.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Tommy Pham, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bat: Alek Thomas

DK Main Slate Only Stack

Boston Red Sox vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

+ Every Padres hitter is projected for ≤ 7% pOwn%.

+ Lynn strung together a few good starts after he was traded over to the Dodgers, including a QS against the Padres on August 6th, but he’s been rocked in his last two outings (vs. ATL and @ MIA), allowing 15 ER on 14 H, 6 HR, and 5 BB with just two strikeouts.

+ Across 28 starts this season, Lynn has posted a poor 6.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 2.30 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Padres have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .271 AVG, .791 OPS, .342 wOBA, .180 ISO, and 120 wRC+.

+ Padres have been the #9 road offense, averaging 4.94 runs/gm (vs. 4.25 runs/gm at home).

- Dodgers have had a top-10 bullpen over the last week.

- Padres: 4.1 implied runs (ranks 6th lowest on the slate).

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Jurickson Profar

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $4.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. JT Chargois (RHP), MIA

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Jose Abreu, HOU | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C Yan Gomes, CHC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

OF Tommy Pham, ARI | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

1B Elehuris Montero, COL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

2B/SS Ronny Mauricio, NYM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF DJ Stewart, NYM | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B/OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

3B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

OF Mark Canha, MIL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. JT Chargois (RHP), MIA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Patricipate in today’s Home Run contest by following this link and retweeting/liking!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Mookie Betts MORE than 0.5 Total Bases (Discounted prop available until 6:30 ET)

Davis Schneider MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!