Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/12 | Small Slate, Big Possibilities!

September 12, 2022

It's a smaller slate today but expect this one to pack a punch!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The first football Sunday has come and gone, and I know many of you crushed the NFL DFS, but now we get back on the MLB wagon! Monday’s main slate brings an early start time of 6:40 ET, and, depending on your site of choice, it’ll feature either six or seven games (no TEX @ MIA doubleheader game on the FanDuel slate). Let’s get right into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Only one game carries some potentially concerning weather issues.

CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Exercise some caution with this game because some heavy rainstorms will be in the general NY area tonight. If one of those makes it over the ballpark, it could spell bad news and lead to a lengthy delay (perhaps even a PPD). I won’t avoid players from this game for now but be sure to check the latest forecast closer to first pitch!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11k | @ DET

A couple of really strong SP options lead the way today with Valdez and Spencer Strider (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.4k). Both guys are firmly in play, and I suspect many DK players will attempt to jam both guys into the same lineup. Valdez has been dominant as of late, coming away with a 1.77 ERA and 28.5% kRate over his previous five starts while averaging 28.2 DKFP/50.6 FDFP. The Tigers are sneaky good against LHPs and they’ve posted a 113 wRC+ against lefties over the last month (ranks 12th), but this should still be a match-up that Valdez can exploit. The Astros check in as huge -230 ML favorites.

 

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.4k | @ SF

This is my guy right here! Strider continues to post phenomenal strikeout numbers and is still comfortably leading all MLB pitchers (min. 100 IP) with his 38.1% kRate and 13.65 K/9. Opponents are hitting just .174 against Strider who also boasts an impressive 2.69 ERA, 2.35 xFIP, and 2.42 SIERA! He’ll go up against a Giants offense that has been striking out quite a bit lately. San Francisco’s 27.5% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks is the third-highest kRate in baseball. They’re also being pinned with a slate-low 2.8 implied run total and the Braves check in a strong -180 road favorites. The 10+ mph winds blowing out at Oracle Park are not really a concern since that ballpark mitigates the wind factor.

Also Consider:

 

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.8k, FD: N/A | @ MIA

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k | @ ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

Nelson pitched an absolute gem in his MLB debut last Monday, covering seven scoreless four-hit innings against the Padres while striking out seven. It was a dream performance for the guy but not something likely to repeat itself. Across 136.0 IP in Triple-A this year, Nelson posted a very lackluster 5.43 ERA, 5.54 xFIP, and 1.39 WHIP. So his MLB debut result was unexpected, to say the least. Now he’ll have to face the ever-dangerous Dodgers lineup that leads the MLB with a 123 wRC+ vs. RHPs this year. Nelson will be backed up by a D-backs bullpen that has posted a 6.70 ERA, 4.99 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, and 1.67 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Justin Turner (6% pOwn%)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

The Reds often take full advantage of their extremely hitter-friendly home ballpark. Their 4.97 runs/gm at home rank them 4th in the MLB. As usual, this is an extremely affordable stack to gain exposure to, and they draw a nice match-up with Bryse Wilson, who has a slate-worst 6.12 ERA and 44.8% HardHit%% on the season to go along with a 1.52 WHIP and 15.8% HR/FB Rate. The Pirates bullpen has been another relief group that has struggled over the last couple of weeks: 6.45 ERA, 5.03 xFIP, 1.76 WHIP. Given their affordability, the nice match-up, and the desire people will have to spend up on pitching today, expect some sizable ownership on many of these Reds bats. However, it is hard to pass up the potential value here.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite CIN Bats: Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Alejo Lopez | Sneaky Bat: Jose Barrero (9% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

Braxton Garrett (3.67 ERA, 3.40 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 24.5% kRate) is a quality pitcher, and the Rangers offense has been slumping as of late. However, over the last month, the Rangers have produced a monster .335 AVG, .418 wOBA, and 180 wRC+ against left-handed pitching! They’ve pretty much crushed, or at least found solid success, against any lefty that they’ve faced *not named Framber Valdez* over the last month. They aren’t an option on FanDuel but keep them in mind as a contrarian option over on DraftKings today.

MIA Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe | Sneaky Bat: Bubba Thompson (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), TB

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

2B Jeff McNeil | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jake McCarthy | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

OF TJ Friedl | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

2B/3B Rodolfo Castro | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

OF Bubba Thompson | DK: $2.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

2B Alejo Lopez | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Alejo Lopez OVER 0.5 Singles | -155 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Lopez is getting a rare start in place of Jonathan India today. He is coming off of a 3-for-3 game against Milwaukee yesterday. He is hitting an impressive .388 over his last 20 games, and Lopez has posted a .373 AVG at home this season. He’s not necessarily a guy who possesses a ton of power and 17 of his 19 hits at home have resulted in a single. I’ll look for him to smack a single today in this plus match-up against Bryse Wilson who has allowed a .331 AVG to LHBs this season (Lopez is a switch-hitter).

 

Spencer Strider OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Recording 8+ strikeouts should be very doable for Strider tonight so it’s worth considering at even money. Strider has gone over on this prop in three of his last four games, he continues to lead all starting pitchers with his 38.1% kRate and 13.65 K/9, and he’ll face a Giants offense that has posted a 27.5% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (third-highest in MLB). Now that Strider is routinely breaking the 100-pitch count workload, we can feel a bit more confident in taking the over on his K props. So let’s do it, Strider!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Props Edge+ tool. It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place! It also helps identify where you may find the biggest edges for props posted on PrizePicks and Underdog!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!