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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope all of the football fiends enjoyed the first NFL weekend of the season! We still have about three weeks left in the MLB regular season and there’s plenty of money to be made! We’ll start off with a healthy 11-game Monday slate. Pitching is fairly strong today, albeit a bit top-heavy. There is no shortage of viable stacks to choose from and, of course, Coors Field is back in play once again. We’ll also need to watch out for some poor weather in two or three games so keep that in mind before finalizing lineups. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET): There are widespread scattered showers in the northeast this afternoon that will linger into the evening. Some sort of delay looks likely but we’re too far out to really gauge things fully. I’m keeping this game in play for now, but we’ll need a pre-lock radar check. If they start on time, pitchers will have added risk.

• ARI @ NYM (7:10 ET): Same deal as BOS with scattered showers and storms around the NY area. However, things should clear out sooner and the current expectation is that they’ll be able to implement a “late start and play.” But check the pre-game forecast here as well before locking anyone in.

• TB @ MIN (7:40 ET): Chance for some sort of delay with some rain in the forecast but it’s a bit more likely that they get through without any issues.

• KC @ CWS (7:40 ET): Could see some rain linger around during the scheduled first pitch. So, possible late start here, but they should be fine after play gets underway.

• CHC @ COL (8:40 ET): Winds around 10 mph but mostly blowing right to left. Cooler temps in the 60s as well. Not the best hitting conditions but it’s still Coors Field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | vs. MIA

There are a handful of high-end pitchers on this slate and a strong case can be made for each one of ‘em. We’re splitting hairs between these guys, but we’ll give Woodruff the spotlight today. Woodruff has had eight starts this season and he has scored at least 20.4 DKFP/34 FDFP in seven of those outings with the lone exception being a road game against the Rangers. In limited innings at home this season (16.1 IP), Woodruff has posted a superb 39.3% kRate next to a 1.65 ERA, 2.67 xFIP, and a 100% left-on-base%.

Woodruff will face a Marlins offense that ranks mid-pack in most key offensive categories against RHPs over the last month. However, versus Woodruff’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, changeup, and sinker, the Marlins rank 26th in the MLB in xwOBA. The catch is that Miami has maintained a low 18.2% kRate vs. RHPs L30Days. With that said, there are strikeouts to be had within this lineup from guys like Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31.4% kRate vs. RHPs), Jake Burger (28.1%), Garrett Hampson (26.8%), and Jesus Sanchez (24.2%). Woodruff brings a strong floor/upside combination to DFS lineups today.

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TEX

This could backfire spectacularly but if we’re looking for leverage, Bassitt has a chance to post a great performance based on his recent form. Spanning his last six starts, he has procured a 2.66 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .212 opp AVG, and a 21.0% kRate. He’s also at home where he averages +35.0% more FPPG. This game will have a postseason feel to it as both teams are in the midst of an AL wild card race -- the Blue Jays currently hold a one-game lead for a wild card berth while the Rangers sit a half-game back.

The Rangers’ recent skid down in the playoff standings has been widely publicized and, while they are still an incredibly dangerous lineup, their offense has accounted for a middling 104 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month alongside a 23.9% kRate. Texas has also averaged nearly a run less per game on the road and the Rogers Centre has ranked as the #10 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season. The Blue Jays check in as moderate -135 ML home favorites and, once again, while it is risky and Bassitt isn’t exactly cheap, he could realistically post a similar, or better, fantasy score than those four top-tier SPs on this slate (Glasnow, Woodruff, Valdez, & Gilbert) while checking in at ~5% ownership.

Jordan Wicks (LHP), CHC | DK: $7k, FD: $8.7k | @ COL

Speaking of risky SP options, it doesn’t get much more intimidating than going to a young and inexperienced Coors Field pitcher. However, Jordan Wicks is a talented lefty who ranks as the No. 4 Cubs prospect and the No. 55 overall prospect (FanGraphs). He made his MLB debut on August 26th and in his three big league starts, he has come away with a strong 2.16 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, and 1.20 WHIP.

The Rockies rank 27th with an 81 wRC+ versus LHPs over the last month to go along with a high 24.6% kRate. Wicks’ primary pitch thus far has been his changeup, which he has thrown 35.4% of the time. Against LHP changeups, the Rockies rank 29th in wOBA (.234), 29th in xwOBA (.252), and have the second-highest kRate (25.6%). The Cubbies are heavy -178 ML favorites today so a win bonus is certainly within play if Wicks can deliver at least five competent innings. It’s still Coors Field, but cooler temperatures in the 60s today will lower the home run chances for both teams. If you’re feeling frisky, give Wicks a look for GPPs today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.5k | @ MIN

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. OAK

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. LAA

Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k | vs. ARI

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYY (Weather Concerns)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Wicks (LHP), CHC

Non-Coors Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

+ Blue Jays: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Dunning has been awful as of late -- over his last four starts: 9.33 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, .350 opp AVG, .468 opp wOBA, and 3.40 HR/9 Rate.

+ Blue Jays bats have been hot against RHPs L2Weeks: .283 AVG (5th), .976 OPS (3rd), .379 wOBA (3rd), 144 wRC+ (3rd), and 16.9% kRate (4th lowest).

+ The Rangers’ bullpen has been getting rocked in the L2Weeks: 5.92 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, .291 opp AVG, and an MLB-worst 2.58 HR/9 Rate.

+ This should be a low-owned stack -- every Blue Jays hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

- Rogers Center has been the #10 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Blue Jays average about a half-run less per game at home (4.31 runs/gm) than on the road (4.89 runs/gm).

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Davis Schneider

Bargain Bat: Kevin Kiermaier

Seattle Mariners vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

+ Detmers over his last six starts: 6.44 ERA, 5.94 xFIP, 1.77 WHIP, .316 opp AVG, .408 opp wOBA, 1.80 HR/9 Rate, and 14.7% kRate.

+ Mariners have punished lefties over the last month: .298 AVG, .870 OPS, .377 wOBA, and 146 wRC+.

+ The Angels have deployed one of the worst bullpens over the last two weeks: 6.90 ERA, 6.26 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, .303 OPP AVG, 1.77 HR/9 Rate, and 15.0% kRate.

+ This should be another low-owned stack -- ever Mariners hitter has a ≤ 5% pOwn%.

-/+ Mariners: 4.4 implied runs (ranks T-6th among non-Coors teams).

- T-Mobile Park has been the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, JP Crawford

Bargain Bat: Jarred Kelenic

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

+ Every Mets hitter has a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Mets: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Davies L5Gms: 7.43 ERA & 1.65 WHIP.

+ The Mets haven’t been outstanding against RHPs, but they do own a solid 107 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks and rank 3rd with a .223 team ISO in that stretch.

- Citi Field: #4 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo

Bargain Bat: DJ Stewart

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Mason Miller (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Pedro Avila (RHP), SD

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

2B/3B Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Jordan Wicks (LHP), CHC

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Pedro Avila (RHP), SD

2B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

1B Elehuras Montero, COL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Wicks (LHP), CHC

OF DJ Stewart, NYM | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

OF Mauricio Dubon, HOU | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Mason Miller (RHP), OAK

3B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Kevin Kiermaier, TOR | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

No HR Calls contest today but be sure to participate in the “Touchdown Calls of the Day” for tonight’s MNF action!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Seiya Suzuki MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

James Outman MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!