Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 9/1 | Swinging Into September With a Small Slate

September 01, 2022

There are not many games on the docket today but that doesn't mean this small slate can't pack a punch!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

As we say in the LineStar chat… “new month, new money!” We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see the first major slate of September since only a few games are on the board for this evening. On DraftKings, the four-game main slate will get underway at 6:10 ET, including the BAL @ CLE game. On FanDuel, the main slate is slimmed down to only three games and will start up around the more usual time at 7:10 ET.

As always, the main focus of this newsletter will be geared towards the mutually shared games but some O’s/Guardians players will get a bit of coverage as well. Overall, this will be a short newsletter while we wait on the big boy Friday slate to roll around tomorrow.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Reminder: BAL/CLE is only on the DK main slate

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Outside of the low-end chance of a late-Summer pop-up storm in Atlanta, there will be no weather-related issues expected on this small slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | @ ARI

It’s a small slate, but it packs a punch in the pitching department, especially if you’re on DK, where Guardians RHP Shane Bieber (DK: $9.6k) is also in the main slate mix. We’ll lead off with Woodruff, who has not been as polished recently as we’re used to seeing. However, he is coming off of a very strong start against the Cubs, where he pitched six scoreless innings and recorded double-digit strikeouts for the first time since late June. Woodruff isn’t necessarily in a smash spot tonight since the D-Backs have been solid on offense lately. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, they rank 11th with a 106 wRC+ and their 15.8% kRate is the lowest in the MLB during that stretch. But if Woodruff pitches up to his standards, then he could turn in another strong performance here on the road. I’d consider him more of a GPP play.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. COL

Strider will be the uber-chalk play at pitcher today, especially given his sub-$10k salaries on both sites. But how can we avoid him given his massive 36.7% kRate and elite 2.54 xFIP? Also, it’s a spectacular match-up. In Colorado’s last 183 plate appearances against RHPs on the road (two-week span), they’re hitting just .206 with a .238 wOBA, .065 ISO, 50 wRC+, and 25.7% kRate. The telling stat is the 50 wRC+. Basically, you take the average offense, slice their production in half, and that’s how poorly the Rockies have been playing recently (against righties away from Coors Field). To no surprise, the Braves are mammoth -370 home favorites today, and another strong strikeout-heavy outing from Strider should be in the cards.

Also Consider:

*Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.6k, FD: N/A | vs. BAL

*Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.4k, FD: N/A | @ CLE

*DraftKings main slate only.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

The Braves are expected to be the highest-owned stack on today’s mini slate. Thus far, they have underperformed in this series against the Rockies but getting a shot at Chad Kuhl could be the medicine the Braves bats need. Over his last five starts, Kuhl has racked up a downright abysmal 10.02 ERA, 6.22 xFIP, 2.18 WHIP, .487 opp AVG, and a 3.50 HR/9 Rate. He’s been going up against some strong offenses in that stretch but, still, those are some awful results. The Braves *should* get some things going against Kuhl and a shaky Rockies bullpen today.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II (8% pOwn%)

Texas Rangers vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

The Rangers destroy lefties (142 wRC+ over the last month) so we have to keep them in play as they go up against southpaw Rich Hill. He pitched a gem in his last start against the Rays (7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 11 K), but Hill has had some ugly outings in recent weeks and has a 4.94 ERA over his last five starts. It would not surprise me if the Rangers could get to him early and force an early exit. The Red Sox bullpen has had its fair share of problems recently, racking up a 6.57 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, and 1.74 WHIP over the last two weeks.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien | Sneaky Bat: Mark Mathias (8% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

If you’re hunting for leverage on a small slate, perhaps you may find it in the Diamondbacks lineup. As mentioned earlier, Woodruff is an ace-caliber pitcher, but he has been struggling a bit lately. He has also been much less effective on the road. Here is a quick look at some of his key home/road splits…

Home: 2.22 ERA, 2.52 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .181 opp AVG, 34.3% kRate

Road: 4.34 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, .260 opp AVG, 25.7% kRate

If I strictly saw Woodruff’s road splits and didn’t know who they belonged to, I’d think “well, this is a very average pitcher with decent strikeout stuff.” He’ll of course be taking the hill on the road today in the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field. And the D-Backs have been an above-average offense against RHPs lately while also posting the lowest kRate against righties in the last two weeks (15.8% kRate). Woodruff could ultimately pitch a solid outing this evening, but there is also a significant chance that the Arizona bats could do some damage as well. The Brewers bullpen has also been extremely average in recent weeks.

MIL Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Jake McCarthy, Daulton Varsho | Sneaky Bat: Corbin Carroll (8% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

*3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

OF Jake McCarthy | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

*SS Gunnar Henderson | DK: $2.6k, FD: N/A | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

1B/2B Mark Mathias | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

OF Corbin Carroll | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Here we go hoping for another Olson bomb even though he has burned me the last couple of times. But today could be the day! Chad Kuhl’s recent struggles were hit on above in the stack section where the Braves were highlighted. But to reiterate, in his last five starts, Kuhl has accumulated a 10.02 ERA, 6.22 xFIP, 2.18 WHIP, .487 opp AVG, and a 3.50 HR/9 Rate. Truly ugly stuff. Olson is on a three-game hitless streak, but he’s still making some great contact lately and his statcast numbers are green across the board. He has crushed righties at home where he has .256 ISO, 43% HardContact%, and 22% HR/FB Rate. If Olson can square one up against Kuhl today, expect it to sail into the Chop House at Truist Park.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Small slate today so I'm just putting one prop on the board today.

 

Spencer Strider OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | -120 (PointsBet) | 2.5 Units

If you look at his full body of work as a starter, Strider has gone up against a load of offenses that aren’t prone to striking out often, yet the NL ROTY candidate has still posted some huge strikeout numbers. Overall, the Rockies aren’t necessarily a strikeout-prone team either but, as you might expect, they certainly do get punched out more often when they’re on the road. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, they’re hitting just .206 with a .238 wOBA, .065 ISO, and 50 wRC+, with a lofty 25.7% kRate. Strider’s strikeout rate has risen a bit when he’s at home as well -- up to a monstrous 38.3% kRate. We can expect him to rack up at least eight Ks this evening.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!