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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

What better way to kick off the final full month of the MLB regular season than with a behemoth 14-game Friday slate?! This slate boasts plenty of aces on the mound, a Coors Field match-up, ample leverage stacks, and, by some small miracle, zero weather concerns. There’s zero time to waste so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No significant or noteworthy weather impacts today!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | vs. MIN

Scherzer has looked much more like his old self since joining the Rangers at the trade deadline. In five starts with Texas, he has put together a strong 2.64 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, .167 opp AVG, and 33.6% kRate while averaging 25.1 DKFP/43.8 FDFP per game. Outside of a lackluster outing against the Brewers two starts ago, Scherzer has looked completely locked in on a team that has World Series aspirations.

Scherzer just faced this Twins lineup five days ago, which does bring up some slight concerns since offenses can often adjust to a starting pitcher’s “stuff” after failing the first time around just days before. But that recent meeting certainly went Scherzer’s way as he held Minnesota to just two runs on four hits across seven innings while racking up 10 strikeouts. There’s no significant reason that Scherzer shouldn’t be able to find similar success today. The Twins have been productive against RHPs as of late, posting a 116 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 8th). However, they also own an MLB-high 30.8% kRate in that span. Their 29.5% kRate against Scherzer’s three primary pitches (4-seamer, slider, and changeup) is also the highest in the MLB. So, he’ll cost you a pretty penny at $11,000 on both sites, but Scherzer has some highly coveted double-digit upside once again today.

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SF

Pitching is extremely strong on this slate so we should see plenty of quality pitchers check in with fairly low ownership. Michael Wacha is one of those (likely) low-owned SP options who should fly in well under 10% owned on both sites. Wacha will take the mound at home in Petco Park (#4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season) where he has posted a sharp 2.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .203 opp AVG, and 24.1% kRate this season while averaging +25.9% more FPPG. Wacha has been particularly strong over his last four home starts where he allowed just one earned run across 23.0 IP (0.39 ERA) alongside a 0.83 WHIP, .173 opp AVG, and 27.6% kRate.

Wacha will draw a match-up that has fallen in the favor of RHPs lately. Over the last month versus RHPs, the Giants are hitting just .208 with an MLB-worst .586 OPS, .262 wOBA, and 65 wRC+ to go along with a 24.7% kRate (8th highest). Wacha’s most utilized pitch is the changeup, which he throws on about a third of his pitches. Against RHP changeups this season, the Giants have posted a lofty 28.7% kRate (4th highest), a .191 AVG (2nd lowest), and a .255 wOBA (4th lowest). So there are plenty of factors that seem to be working in Wacha’s favor, making him a strong leverage option out of the mid-range.

James Paxton (LHP), BOS | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ KC

There are some valid concerns about Paxton as of late following some recent poor performances. However, he’s coming off of a pair of pretty brutal match-ups against the Dodgers and Astros -- two teams that can give most starting pitchers some trouble. His last strong outing came against this same Royals offense on August 10th where he threw 5.1 shutout innings, allowing six hits, no walks, striking out six, and earning the win -- good for 24.4 DKFP/40 FDFP. This may be a strong spot for Paxton to get back on track as Boston looks to make a desperate late-season push for a wild card berth.

For a moment there, from late July thru early August, the Royals were looking extremely competent and putting up top-10 offensive numbers. It’s been a quick fall from grace, however, and they’re averaging just 1.6 runs/gm over their last five games. They’ve also ranked dead last in the MLB over the last two weeks with a .191 AVG, .560 OPS, .243 wOBA, and 45 wRC+ while striking out at a higher-than-average clip (23.9% kRate). The Red Sox are heavy -188 ML road favorites and, while his recent form does make this a bit risky, Paxton will have solid potential to return fantasy scored in the 25 DKFP/40 FDFP range today and he’s very reasonably priced for that sort of upside.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.4k | @ CLE

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k | vs. PHI

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.5k | @ CWS

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | @ WAS

Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ OAK

Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.2k | @ ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

Non-Coors Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

+ Red Sox: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Lyles is looking pretty cooked (well, more so than usual) late in the season -- spanning his last five starts he has come away with a 7.89 ERA, 5.50 xFIP, .297 opp AVG, .416 opp wOBA, 3.30 HR/9 Rate, and a 13.4% kRate.

+ Lyles: 11 barreled balls allowed L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Red Sox have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .297 AVG, .859 OPS, .370 wOBA, .191 ISO, 131 wRC+, and 17.4% kRate -- they’ve also hit 19 HRs vs. RHPs in that span (ranks 2nd) while scoring 69 runs (T-1st).

+ The Royals have had a bottom-five bullpen over the last month: 5.88 ERA, 5.16 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, and 1.87 HR/9 Rate.

-/+ The Red Sox have been less potent on the road (4.66 runs/gm away vs. 5.25 runs/gm home), however, Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- Jordan Lyles has been less of a gas can at home where he averages +54.5% more FPPG.

Favorite BOS Bats: Adam Duvall, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo (+ Ceddane Rafaela is he starts)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

+ Orioles: 5.0 implied runs (T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Davies has been highly erratic over his last eight MLB starts where he has accumulated an 8.44 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .300 opp AVG, .382 opp wOBA, 16.9% kRate, and 46.8% Left on Base%.

+ The Orioles vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .308 AVG (1st), .827 OPS (6th), .356 wOBA (6th), 128 wRC+ (6th), and 18.8% kRate (6th lowest).

+ The Orioles rank as the 5th best road offense, averaging 5.31 runs/gm.

+ The D-Backs have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.61 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and 1.60 HR/9 Rate.

- Davies has averaged +23.4% more FPPG at home and has a respectable 3.13 ERA in his last four home games.

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

+ Every Astros hitter has a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Astros: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Carlos Rodon has been one of the many disappointments from the 2023 New York Yankees -- after missing the first two-plus months of the season, in his eight 2023 starts, Rodon has posted a 5.97 ERA alongside a slate-worst 5.86 xFIP and 91.9 mph average exit velocity.

+ Rodon Statcast Data L30Days: 218.2 feet average distance on batted balls (bottom 5th percentile) with a 25.0% LineDrive% and 58.3% Flyball%.

+ The Astros have been mashing LHPs over the last month: .335 AVG (1st), 1.011 OPS (1st), .426 wOBA (1st), .270 ISO (2nd), and 177 wRC+ (1st).

- The Astros have been less potent at home where they average 4.59 runs/gm (vs. 5.51 runs/gm away).

- The Yankees bullpen has still been pitching well, ranking as a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

- Core Astros bats are very expensive.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker

Bargain Bat: Jeremy Pena/Martin Maldonado

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Randy Arozarena, TB | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Adam Duvall, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

2B/OF Davis Schneider, TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

2B/SS Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

1B Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

OF Parker Meadows, DET | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

OF/SS Ceddane Rafaela, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

C Martin Maldonado, HOU | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

No HR Calls today! The HR Calls contest will return next week!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Davis Schneider MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Michael Wacha MORE than 27.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!