Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/9 | A Huge Tuesday Slate Awaits...

August 09, 2022

This slate has so many great pitching and stack options but we'll try to pin down the absolute best of the best...

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

OnDeck Podcast 📣

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! Never know when we'll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to get locked in for Tuesday’s huge 14-game slate! This big boy has it all. Aces on the mound, plenty of viable value pitchers, Coors Field is back in play, and several other offenses in prime spots to break open the slate. Let’s crush it today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s not exactly a worry-free day, as far as weather goes, so we will need to monitor a few games as we get closer to first pitch.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A couple bands of scattered storms look to move through the Baltimore area this evening. It’s a little early to tell how they’ll affect this game, if at all, so be sure to double-check the outlook here closer to first pitch.

MIA @ PHI (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Pretty identical forecast as BAL, though perhaps with a touch more risk due to higher storm coverage downstream from Philadelphia.

CIN @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered storms will be around NY so a delay is possible at some point.

ATL @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): The worst of the rain would be in the early window of this game so that’ll put a potential late start on the table. Good to go after that.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.7k | vs. MIA

Reminder: Keep an eye out for some bad weather here.

As long as the forecast shakes out favorably, Wheeler should be a perfectly fine top-end pitcher to target for lineups today. He’s been dominant at home this season where, in 10 starts (62.2 IP), he has come away with a 1.58 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP, .183 opp AVG, and a 28.6% kRate. The Marlins have had very little success against RHPs in recent weeks. They’re posting an ugly .257 wOBA and 67 wRC+ over the last month against righties, ranking them 29th in both categories. The Phillies (-230) are pinned as the second-heaviest favorite of the day as well.

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ DET

The only other team that has been worse than the aforementioned Marlins against RHPs over the last month is the Detroit Tigers (.246 wOBA, 57 wRC+). The Tigers have also struck out with a lofty 26.3% kRate in that span (4th highest). We’re not seeing the 2020 Cy Young-winning version of Shane Bieber this season but he has been rounding into some near-dominant form lately. He has pitched well enough to earn at least 27.1 DKFP/46 FDFP in three of his last four games and those results came against offenses that are considerably better than Detroit’s.

Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. TEX

There are some quality value arms to choose from on this slate but Urquidy may be the safest guy to target if you’re looking for a cheaper starting pitcher. Across his previous eight starts (53.0 IP) Urquidy has posted a sharp 2.04 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and .148 opp AVG. He’s coming off of arguably his best start of the season against the Red Sox last Wednesday where he pitched seven scoreless two-hit innings while striking out 10 batters and racking up a whopping 38 DKFP/61 FDFP. That will be a difficult performance to repeat and Urquidy isn’t typically known as a high strikeout pitcher so the double-digit Ks were definitely an outlier. But he does tend to strikeout a lot more hitters when pitching at home -- 24.8% kRate at home, 14.1% kRate on the road this season. He’s also averaging +52.3% more FP at home. The Rangers are an extremely average offense against RHPs so there’s no reason Urquidy shouldn’t have another solid outing.

Also Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.2k | @ OAK

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIN

Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CIN

Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | @ PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Bradish could be in for a tough day at the office when he goes to face the righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup. Bradish has some really poor reverse splits going this year. Against RHBs he has posted an 8.18 ERA, .361 AVG, .439 wOBA, .256 ISO, 1.86 WHIP, and 2.56 HR/9 Rate. The Blue Jays are a perennial top-five offense against RHPs and have a ton of viable options to go with throughout their lineup. The only potential downside here will stem from the fact that Baltimore’s bullpen has pitched at a high level for much of the season.

BAL Bullpen Rating: 8/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Chapman | Sneaky Bat: Bo Bichette (8% pOwn%)

New York Mets vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

The Mets stack didn’t come through in a big way yesterday but they’ll get another chance to go off against Mike Minor and a poor Reds bullpen. Minor may be the lowest-quality starter on the slate as he heads into this game with a 6.19 ERA, 5.31 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, and 2.54 HR/9 Rate. The Mets have been incredibly hot against LHPs over the last two weeks with a .311 AVG, .383 wOBA, and 163 wRC+. It’s a great spot to go back to some Mets bats today.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite Mets Bats: Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Darin Ruf | Sneaky Bat: Mark Canha (10% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

This is a pretty tough sell given the general lack of talent on this Nationals offense but we’re looking here in case Marcus Stroman continues to struggle in his home ballpark at Wrigley Field. In 22.2 IP at Wrigley this season, Stroman has come away with a 7.94 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .382 opp wOBA, and 2.38 HR/9. The Cubs bullpen is also not one to be too afraid of so perhaps we’ll see a few of these Nats bats come through today.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite WAS Bats: Luke Voit, Nelson Cruz, Joey Meneses | Sneaky Bat: Luis Garcia (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jimmy Yacabonis (RHP), TB

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

OF Daulton Varsho | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), PIT

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

SS Paul DeJong | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

1B/OF Darin Ruf | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

1B/3B Elehuris Montero | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

After an 0-for-4 outing yesterday, let’s look for Pete Alonso to bounce back in a big way against Mike Minor and this Reds bullpen. Against LHPs at home this season, Alonso is hitting .327 with a huge .436 wOBA, .286 ISO, and 22.2% HR/FB Rate. Against RHBs, Mike Minor is getting crushed to the tune of a .440 wOBA, .329 ISO, and 2.97 HR/9 Rate.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Shane Bieber to Record the Win: Yes | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

This should be a good spot for Bieber to pick up a win on the road. He’s only 3-3 in 12 road starts this season but he’s been pitching noticeably better lately and the Tigers are the worst offense in the MLB when facing right-handed pitching.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -120 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

Vladito is hitting .397 against RHPs in his last 20 games and he’ll get to face off against Kyle Bradish, whose reverse splits have been awful this season. Against RHBs, Bradish is allowing an 8.18 ERA, .361 AVG, .439 wOBA, .256 ISO, 1.86 WHIP, and 2.56 HR/9 Rate.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!