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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got a solid nine-game humpday slate on our hands. Things look fairly balanced between pitching and viable stack options so we should have some fun with this one. Let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

• CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

• TOR @ CLE (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to center/right around 10 mph.

• NYY @ CWS (8:10 ET): Chance for a late start as rain clears around first pitch, but no major trouble is expected. Winds IN from right at times around 10 mph.

• SF @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center/right at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.6k | @ PIT

After missing three months of action due to a forearm injury, Max Fried returned to an MLB mound last Friday and froze a hot-hitting Chicago Cubs team. Despite being limited to 72 pitches, it was arguably Fried’s best fantasy outing of the season (6.0 IP, 8 K, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB -- 31.7 DKFP/52 FDFP). We won’t see Fried’s workload be completely unleashed just yet but, if I had to guess, he should be able to inch closer to around an 85-to-90-ish pitch count this evening. He’ll take a slate-leading 1.69 ERA, 2.79 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and 64.2% Ground Ball Rate into his seventh start of the season.

The Pirates' offense has had very little success against lefty pitching over the last month. They’re hitting just .219 with a .270 wOBA, .070 ISO, and 67 wRC+ against LHPs in that time frame to go along with a middling 22.4% kRate. If the same Max Fried that showed up to Wrigley last Friday comes out to PNC Park tonight, he could certainly end the night as the highest-scoring arm on the slate even with light workload restrictions. The Braves (-280 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the evening.

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | @ SEA

Darvish has been a bit of a boom-or-bust DFS option this season but he has been in some strong form as of late. Over his last five starts, Darvish owns a 3.07 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, .225 opp AVG, and 26.4% kRate. Oddly enough, his lone bad game in that stretch came against the Pirates; meanwhile, he pitched at least six strong innings against the likes of the Dodgers, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Phillies. Darvish will take the mound in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park and try to put a stop to the Mariners’ six-game win streak.

Seattle has been playing well offensively, sporting a 115 wRC+ and .329 wOBA vs. RHPs over the last month. With that said, they continue to strike out a ton with a 27.9% kRate (4th highest) against RHPs over the last month. Darvish has some strong BvP against this current Mariners roster. In 72 PA, he has held them to a .156 AVG, .214 wOBA, and 33.3% kRate. Darvish isn’t cheap but he’ll have some comparable upside to the top arms on this slate.

Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA | DK: $4k, FD N/A | vs. SD

Time for another $4,000 lotto ticket DraftKings SP2! Hancock is not in the player pool on FanDuel but he’ll unlock a ton of roster flexibility as a roll-of-the-dive SP2 on DK. Hancock will be making his MLB debut today but he comes in with some pedigree. He is the Mariners’ top-ranked pitching prospect. He comes directly up from the Double-A level where, in 20 starts and 98.0 IP, he has procured a 4.32 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, .227 opp AVG, and 26.0% kRate. One major concern, however, is how well Hancock will adjust to using a non-pre-tacked baseball that they have been using at the Double-A level this year.

He won’t be handed the easiest of match-ups but he is at least at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Against RHPs over the last 30 days, the Padres have ranked mid-pack in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. They’re not an overly easy team to strike out (21.9% kRate vs. RHPs) but we’re also not asking much from a $4,000 pitcher. The Mariners will be +125 ML home underdogs in this one but, as mentioned above, they have ripped off six straight wins (and are 11-2 in their last 13) so if Hancock can clear five innings, he may be in line for a win with a shot at 15-20 DKFP. There’s always some major risk with these sorts of plays, but this one has a solid chance of paying off.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11k | @ CLE

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. KC

Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

+ Braves: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Priester has not impressed in his four big league starts and is sporting an 8.69 ERA, 5.26 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, .399 opp wOBA, and a 31.3% HR/FB Rate.

+ Braves vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .316 AVG (1st), .990 OPS (1st), .413 wOBA (1st), .289 ISO (1st), 160 wRC+ (1st), and 42.8% HardContact% (2nd).

- The Pirates have had an above-average bullpen over the last month.

- Ronald Acuña Jr. may not be able to suit up today after taking a 97 mph sinker off the elbow yesterday -- big hit to ATL’s stack upside if he doesn’t play.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley (+ Acuña if he plays)

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

+ Red Sox: 5.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Lyles has been awful on the road this season (-58.2% less FPPG) -- in 58.1 IP away, he owns a 7.56 ERA, 5.62 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, .371 opp wOBA, 14.2% kRate, and a 1.85 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Red Sox bats have been slumping lately but they’ve still been productive at home, specifically against RHPs -- vs. RHPs at home over the last month, BOS owns a .355 wOBA, .211 ISO, and a 119 wRC+.

+ Fenway Park has been the #2 most hitter-friendly park this season -- Red Sox average 5.45 runs/gm at home.

+ Royals bullpen over the last month: 6.00 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, and 1.42 WHIP.

- Red Sox appear to be the chalkiest stack on the slate.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Trevor Story

Bargain Bat: Triston Casas

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

+ 8-of-9 projected Oriole hitters have a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

+ Orioles: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ It’s been a rough summer for Javier -- over his last nine starts (43.0 IP), he has come away with a very poor 6.91 ERA, 6.53 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, .365 opp wOBA, 1.70 HR/9 Rate, and 17.8% kRate.

+ Javier has been worse on the road this season (-31.9% less FPPG).

+ Javier has allowed an average distance of 258.6 feet on batted balls L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Orioles vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .285 AVG (4th), .796 OPS (6th), .342 wOBA (6th), and 119 wRC+ (6th).

+ Astros bullpen over the last month: 4.56 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and 1.85 HR/9 Rate.

- The Orioles have been less effective at home (4.56 runs/gm) than on the road (5.36 runs/gm).

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), BAL

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK; $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

2B/OF Kiké Hernandez, LAD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Jake Bauers, NYY | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF Drew Waters, KC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Mookie Betts MORE than 0.5 Runs Scored

Matt Olson MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!