Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/8 | Diving Into Monday's Seven-Game Slate!

August 08, 2022

It's an interesting little slate on the board today. The Mets have high expectations but what other teams should we look to target?

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s about that time to hop back on the saddle for another loaded week of MLB DFS! Monday brings us a modest seven-game slate to start off the workweek but, as far as smaller slates go, this one is looking pretty juicy. There are going to be some hard-to-avoid chalk pitchers and bats but it won’t be too difficult to differentiate in other areas of your lineups. Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Not expecting many issues today! Outside of a low chance of a delay in Baltimore, everything is looking just fine.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Low chance of a storm hitting the ballpark. Otherwise, some solid hitting weather here with warm temps and light winds blowing OUT to left/center.

CIN @ NYM (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Temps in the upper-80s with some 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center. Bats get a bump.

WAS @ CHC (8:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cooler temps around 70 degrees with 15 mph winds blowing IN from left. Pitchers get a bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Bassitt (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.4k | vs. CIN

The only thing working against Bassitt today would be the weather at Citi Field (warm w/ 10-15 mph winds blowing out). However, his low 34.4% Flyball Rate and 85.5 mph average exit velocity should mitigate some concerns there. Bassitt brings above average strikeout upside to the table with his 24.4% kRate and he’s rocking a strong 1.12 WHIP on the season as well. Of course, the major draw here is his opponent. The Reds are almost always going to be a team to target, particularly when they’re playing outside the confines of their extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. Against RHPs on the road in the last two weeks, the Reds have a paltry .179 AVG, .234 wOBA, .048 ISO, and 48 wRC+. Rough stuff. It is pretty easy to see why the Mets are decisive -335 favorites today.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. PIT

Gallen has been a rock-solid starter for much of the season and he leads all pitchers today with his 1.04 WHIP and .279 opp wOBA. His strikeouts are up a touch in recent weeks (24.1% kRate L5Gms) and he draws a strong match-up against the Pirates who rank 27th in the MLB with a 78 wRC+ vs. RHPs (L2Wks). Gallen has also averaged about +27% more fantasy points when pitching at home this season and the D-Backs are the second-heaviest favorites of the day with -240 moneyline odds.

Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS

Thompson has posted some volatile results this season but there is no doubt that he has as much raw fantasy scoring upside as any other pitcher on this slate, with the exception of perhaps only Blake Snell. Thompson’s 21.2% kRate is just a tick below league average but he’s an interesting case since he has some games where he’ll come away with only one-to-three strikeouts and in other games, he’ll cruise to seven, eight, or even nine Ks. The Nats offense has been much closer to league average rather than bottom-of-the-barrel in the few games they’ve played without Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Regardless, it’s not a scary match-up and Keegan Thompson should benefit from some pitcher-friendly weather at Wrigley (cool w/ 15 mph winds blowing in). Thompson also has some promising home splits. At home this season, he has posted a 2.50 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 24.7% kRate, and is averaging +67.8% more fantasy points.

Also Consider:

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SF

Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA | DK: $7k, FD: $6.6k | @ OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Mets vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

Dunn makes his 2022 debut for the Reds today and it’s hard to imagine things will go well for him in this game. Dunn has a decent amount of experience in the majors but he has not necessarily impressed. In 102.2 IP, he has come away with a not-so-terrible 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. However, his 6.05 xFIP and 5.79 SIERA in that time indicate he benefited from a large amount of luck. In seven starts and 26.0 IP in Triple-A this year, Dunn has posted a very poor 6.92 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. If he’s struggling that much against minor leaguers, he’ll have his hands full with a surging Mets offense that leads the MLB with a .309 AVG and 152 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo | Sneaky Bat: Tyler Naquin (1% pOwn%)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

Beede has primarily pitched out of the bullpen this year but he drew his first 2022 start last Wednesday and lasted just 1.1 innings on 42 pitches, giving up four runs on five hits and a pair of walks. He’ll probably be tasked with handling the first two or three innings again but, for the most part, this is looking like a Pirates bullpen game. That should be a good thing for these D-Backs hitters. Over the last two weeks, the Pirates bullpen ranks last in the MLB with a 5.02 xFIP and 15.5% kRate. The D-Backs have been a top 10 offense at home over the last month where they rank 5th with a .354 wOBA and 6th with a 124 wRC+ while striking out a league-low 16.5% of the time.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite ARI Bats: Daulton Varsho, Christian Walker, Alek Thomas | Sneaky Bat: Carson Kelly (2% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

Outside of Aaron Judge (24% pOwn%), no other Yankee bat is expected to be over 10% owned today so they’ll fit the criteria of a “low-owned stack that just might work out.” They’ll get to face Logan Gilbert for the second time within a week. Gilbert is a really solid pitcher but his last outing against these Yankees did not go over so well. Across his 5.1 IP, he gave up six runs on seven hits (three HRs) and four walks. The Yankees' win-loss record is certainly on the decline lately but they’re still one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Even while they’re trending downward, their 123 wRC+ over the last two weeks is still good for the 6th best in the MLB.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (RHP), SEA

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

C Sean Murphy | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Daulton Varsho | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

SS Jorge Mateo | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Victor Robles | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

OF Ryan McKenna | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Daulton Varsho | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

Varsho has been letting it rip with three homers within his last six games. He’s accounting for a huge 46.2% HardContact% in the last two weeks and has barreled five baseballs in that span as well (95th percentile). He’ll look to stay hot against Tyler Beede, who has a 2.11 HR/9 Rate against LHBs on the road throughout his career. Beede may only pitch about three innings today so Varsho will likely get a couple of at-bats against a Pirates bullpen that has not been good at all throughout this season.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Sean Murphy OVER 0.5 RBI | +200 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

Over his last 20 games, Murphy has an excellent .333 AVG with 14 runs batted in. He has accounted for at least one RBI in five of his last seven games and he’ll be hitting third in the lineup against a mediocre lefty starter in Jose Suarez. It’s not a safe bet but the +200 odds on this prop represent too much value in my mind.

 

Chris Bassitt OVER 18.5 Outs | -104 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Bassitt excels at pitching deep into games and he has covered at least six full frames in eight consecutive starts. In six of those eight starts, he has secured at least 19 outs (6.1 IP). The Reds are in town and their struggles on the road are well documented. As mentioned in the pitcher section above, against RHPs on the road in the last two weeks, the Reds have a terrible .179 AVG, .234 wOBA, .048 ISO, and 48 wRC+. Let’s look for Bassitt to cash the over on this 18.5 outs prop once again.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!