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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s about that time to step into the batter’s box and face down a hefty 11-game Tuesday slate! This one looks to be a tricky one to decipher so let’s see how well we can fit the pieces of the puzzle together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ PIT (7:05 ET): Winds OUT to center at 5-10 mph.

• HOU @ BAL (7:05 ET): Winds OUT to right at 10-15 mph.

• KC @ BOS (7:10 ET): Chance for a few stray storms early in the game but they should have no issues getting a complete game in. Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

• CHI @ NYM (7:10 ET): 15+ mph winds but they’ll mostly be blowing left to right, maybe a bit OUT to right at times.

• TOR @ CLE (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

• SF @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to left at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.5k | @ OAK

Baseball constantly reminds us that there are truly no “safe” plays in the realm of MLB DFS but Max Scherzer will feel like the most reliable SP option if we’re spending up at the position. Mad Max didn’t have the cleanest game in his Rangers debut, allowing three first-inning runs to the White Sox on two hits and two walks. However, he settled in and pitched five scoreless innings after the shaky first inning, securing a quality start while racking up nine strikeouts. Scherzer leads all starters on the slate with a 27.7% kRate and 13.2% SwStr%. He has also secured at least 22.1 DKFP/39 FDFP in seven of his last nine starts.

We touched on it in yesterday’s newsletter but it’s worth noting that the A’s have not been awful offensively -- specifically against RHPs over the last month where their 109 wRC+ ranks 12th in the MLB. However, they still own a high 25.2% kRate (8th highest) in that span and they’re still at home where they have averaged an MLB-worst 3.35 runs/gm this season. The Rangers (-260 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the evening and we should look for Scherzer to cover six or seven solid innings while racking up 7-to-10 strikeouts along the way.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ CLE

I’m just asking for some bad juju spotlighting Kikuchi but there are a few reasons to like him in this spot today. He heads into a match-up with the powerless Guardians on the heels of some nice short-term form. Over his last three starts (17.1 IP), Kikuchi has boasted a 1.04 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 26.4% kRate, and a 91.3% LOB%. He also gave up zero home runs in that stretch.

The long ball has been Kikuchi’s major issue since entering the big leagues, and it has remained true this season given his 1.72 HR/9 Rate and 17.1% HR/FB Rate. The good news is that he’ll be facing a Guardians team that has hit, by far, the fewest home runs in the Majors this season with 84 HRs. They are also averaging just 3.70 runs/gm at home (only the A’s average less) and Progressive Field has ranked as the #4 most pitcher-friendly park this season. It’s also worth noting that Cleveland’s production against lefty pitchers over the last two weeks has been comically bad. It’s only a 92 PA sample size, but vs. LHPs L2Weeks, Cleveland has hit just .118 with a .169 wOBA, .059 ISO, and a 4 wRC+. Their saving grace is the fact that they don’t strike out a ton -- their 18.0% kRate vs. LHPs is the lowest in MLB. That said, Kikuchi could still pick up a handful of strikeouts while having a solid chance to cover six innings and record a quality start and perhaps a win (Toronto: -135 ML favorites).

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.6k | @ NYM

As usual on a slate this size, there will be a few value pitchers worthy of some DFS consideration. Taillon earns the nod here thanks to some strong recent outings and he’s also being supported by a hot-hitting Cubs offense that leads the MLB in runs scored since the All-Star Break. Over his last five starts, Taillon has averaged 19.17 DKFP/34.2 FDFP while picking up four wins and posting a 2.08 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 19.0% kRate. That xFIP indicates that Taillon has been a bit ‘lucky’ in that stretch and his kRate is not going to blow anyone away. But we’re not asking for much here and Taillon has been showing the ability to hit the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold that we look for out of our cheaper SP targets.

The Mets routinely fall flat on offense and, prior to their surprise 11-2 win over the Cubbies yesterday, they had failed to score more than three runs in their previous five games. They’re hitting just .214 against RHPs over the last month (ranks 29th) along with a very lackluster .307 wOBA (ranks 21st). They’ve also scored the second-fewest runs (62) against RHPs in that stretch. The Cubs will be moderate -135 ML road favorites at the pitcher-friendly Citi Field today so if you’re rolling the dice on a cheaper arm, Taillon will be worth a look.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. TOR

Wade Miley (LHP), MIL | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. COL

Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

+ Dodgers: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ Pfaadt steps in with a slate-worst 7.11 ERA and 21.9% HR/FB Rate to go along with a poor 4.91 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and .391 opp wOBA.

+ Dodgers vs. RHPs L30Days: .283 AVG (2nd), .854 OPS (3rd), .366 wOBA (3rd), .200 ISO (9th), and 133 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Dodgers have been very hot as of late with a .410 wOBA and 162 wRC+ over the last week.

+ Dodgers are averaging an MLB-best 5.96 runs/gm on the road.

+ D-Backs bullpen L2Weeks: 5.45 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 2.60 HR/9 Rate.

- Core LAD bats are pricey and will likely be fairly chalky.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy

Bargain Bat: James Outman

Chicago Cubs vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

+ Cubs: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ They bombed yesterday but we should feel good about the Cubs bats versus Carrasco, who has been a very below-average starter this season: 6.60 ERA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, .379 opp wOBA, 14.9% kRate, and 19.0% HR/9 Rate.

+ Carrasco has been particularly bad over his last four starts, posting a 12.33 ERA, 2.48 WHIP, .438 opp AVG, and .480 opp wOBA.

+ Cubs rank 1st vs. RHPs L30Days in the following categories: AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and stolen bases.

+ Mets have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

- Citi Field is the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

+ 6-of-9 Royals hitters have a ≤ 8% pOwn%.

+ We’ll be looking to see if Crawford’s remarkably bad home splits rear their head today -- Crawford at home this season (-76.1% less FPPG): 6.03 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, .333 opp wOBA, and 1.72 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Royals offense has been surprisingly good against RHPs over their last 10 games, ranking 5th in AVG, 5th in OPS, 6th in wOBA, 10th in ISO, 8th in wRC+, and 11th in HardContact%.

+ Fenway Park is the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark and there will be some helpful winds blowing out to center around 10 mph.

-/+ Royals: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-11th on the slate).

- Based on their 4.11 xFIP, the Red Sox has had a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

- Royals are averaging an MLB-worst 3.39 runs/gm on the road.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez

Bargain Bat: Freddy Fermin

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtanu, LAA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Scott Alexander (LHP), SF

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

2B Trevor Story, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, CHC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), LAA

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

C Freddy Fermin, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

2B/OF Kiké Hernández, LAD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Jake Bauers, NYY | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Liover Pegeuro, PIT | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), ATL

3B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Freddie Freeman MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!