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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone had a great, restful weekend! It’s officially time to get set for another week of MLB action and we’ll begin with a solid eight-game Monday main slate. We’ll have a few aces on the hill, some worthwhile value pitching options, and several intriguing offensive stack candidates to choose from. This should be a great evening of baseball so let’s dive right on in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ PIT (7:05 ET): There will be a pretty strong chance for a delay/late start with rain threatening the early innings. That rain is expected to clear relatively quickly, so there should be no further issues once they get going.

• KC @ BOS (7:10 ET): Some rainy weather is clearing this afternoon but could linger into the early evening. It’s probably light enough to play through if it even becomes an issue. Winds near 10 mph OUT to left.

• CHC @ NYM (7:10 ET): Plenty of rain is in the NY forecast so delay chances are fairly high here. However, those rainstorms should clear up enough to where they can get this game played… and there’s a chance they may not even need to implement a delay. Starting pitchers will have some risk as of now, but the bats look safe. Winds are also blowing OUT to left/center at 10+ mph.

• SF @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11k | @ CWS

Anyone who knows me knows that I’m always on board with Spencer Strider (DK: $12.8k, FD: $11.5k) any time he’s on the bump. However, everyone also knows that Strider needs little introduction and is virtually almost always a worthy DFS option. Gerrit Cole is far from an under-the-radar play either, but it looks like he’ll check in with much lower ownership than Strider today despite drawing a similarly strong match-up with comparable DFS upside. Cole will also come in at $1,500 cheaper than Strider on DraftKings and $500 cheaper on FanDuel -- some solid salary savings that could go a long way in improving your bat selections (or SP2 on DK). I believe it’s worth showing how comparably close these two aces have performed within their last handful of outings:

Strider L5 Starts: 3.45 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 41.7% kRate, 27.9 DKFP/48.2 FDFP per game.

Cole L5 Starts: 2.14 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 0.71 WHIP, 31.7% kRate, 26.27 DKFP/45.2 FDFP per game.

Both pitchers are also averaging over 100 pitches per game in that stretch. While Strider wins the kRate battle against just about anyone, Cole has still boasted an elite 30+% kRate while also allowing fewer base runners, earned runs, and has scored nearly identical FPPG as Strider over that span.

Cole faces a White Sox team that ranks dead last in the MLB versus RHPs over the last month in OPS (.647), wOBA (.282), and wRC+ (76) while striking out 24.9% of the time (9th highest). The White Sox are being pinned with a slate-low 3.3 implied runs and the Yanks are hefty -170 ML favorites.

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k | vs. COL

Peralta falls into a tier below the likes of Strider and Cole, but he’ll be in a terrific spot against the Rockies at home this evening. Peralta has averaged +31.7% more FPPG at home where his kRate jumps to 31.6% (vs. 24.2% on the road), his WHIP falls to 1.15 (vs. 1.38 on the road), and opponents are hitting just .214 against him (vs. .247 on the road). He has also been in a nice groove lately, with good-to-great performances in five of his last six starts (the only bad game came against a tough Braves lineup) and, in that stretch, he has boasted a stout 36.0% kRate, .198 opp AVG, and 2.87 xFIP.

The Rockies were big-time sellers and, while it’s only been a week, they have had 195 PA vs. RHPs since the August 1st trade deadline. In that time vs. RHPs, they’re accounting for a meager 70 wRC+ alongside a huge 28.7% kRate. Peralta faced a better version of this Rockies team at Coors Field earlier this season (May 2nd) and was able to work through six two-run innings while racking up 10 strikeouts at scoring 23.5 DKFP/46 FDFP. Peralta should be able to put on a similar, if not better, performance today.

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ OAK

As he likes to do on occasion, Dane “Cy Young” Dunning made an appearance in his last outing, pitching 7.2 innings of three-hit, one-run ball while racking up 11 Ks against the White Sox. While it does feel like we’re chasing an outlier performance here, Dunning is still very affordable and draws another soft match-up against the A’s. Dunning has covered at least six innings in six of his last nine starts and, in that stretch, he has pitched to a respectable 3.54 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, .298 opp wOBA, and 19.5% kRate; nothing incredible, but still rock-solid results.

It would be unfair to say that the A’s are playing like a bottom-of-the-barrel offense lately. In fact, their 110 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month ranks 10th in the MLB and they’re showing quite a bit of pop with a .197 ISO in that same stretch. They do still offer up ample strikeout upside to opposing pitchers with a 25.3% kRate vs. RHPs L30Days and, on the season, they’re averaging an MLB-worst 3.36 runs/gm at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum. The Rangers are massive -240 ML favorites today so, at his current salaries, we’re just looking for a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) out of Dunning, with around a handful of Ks and a win -- 20 DKFP/35 FDFP should be a very obtainable outcome here.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.8k, FD: $11.5k | @ PIT

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | @ LAA

Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYM

Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.8k | @ CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

+ Rangers: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ Discounting Hyun Jin Ryu, who has made just one MLB start this season, Waldichuk ranks last among all SPs on this slate in ERA (6.52), xFIP (5.23), WHIP (1.74), and opp wOBA (.382).

+ Rangers vs. LHPs L2Weeks: .369 wOBA, .242 ISO, and 137 wRC+.

+ Waldichuk has very poor reverse splits (vs. LHBs: .409 wOBA, .314 ISO, 1.88 WHIP, 2.12 HR/9) so no need to shy away from the Rangers’ lefties (primarily Seager & Lowe).

+ It’s a small 42 PA sample size, but the current TEX roster is hitting .324 with a .426 wOBA and 19% kRate vs. Waldichuk.

+ Oakland continues to consistently have a bottom-10 bullpen.

- While he still hasn’t been great, Waldichuk has pitched better at home where he has a not-so-horrible 4.85 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, and 23.5% kRate while averaging +47.8% more FPPG.

- Oakland Coliseum has been the #8 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite TEX Bats: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien

Bargain Bat: Mitch Garver

Atlanta Braves vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

+ Braves: 5.3 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Bido has been in some poor form over his last six starts: 6.75 ERA, 5.98 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, .334 opp wOBA, 62.1% LOB%.

+ Braves vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .314 AVG, .991 OPS, .413 wOBA, .291 ISO, 161 wRC+, and 43.2% HardContact%.

+ Braves rate out very well versus Bido’s primary pitch mix of sliders (33.9%), 4-seamers (29%), and sinkers (22.7%), ranking 1st in the MLB in AVG (.271), wOBA (.364), xwOBA (.373), ISO (.228), and exit velocity (92.1 mph).

-/+ PNC Park is a neutral hitter’s ballpark.

- As poorly as Bido has pitched, he doesn’t allow much hard contact or home runs (0.5 HR/9 L6Starts).

- Bido has not pitched more than 4.0 innings in any of his last six starts so the Braves may face a good bit of relievers -- the Pirates bullpen has been a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

+ Despite being one of the hottest offenses in baseball in recent weeks, no Cubs hitter is projected higher than 8% pOwn% -- 8-of-9 bats <5% pOwn%.

+ Cubs: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ It’s tough to really point out why Senga could struggle today but he did just allow 11 hits to the Royals in his last start and didn’t fare overly well against this Cubs lineup back in late-May, allowing six hits and five walks across 5.0 IP.

+ Cubs vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .317 AVG, .975 OPS, .413 wOBA, .259 ISO, 163 wRC+, and 18.8% kRate to go along with an MLB-best 75 runs and 18 stolen bases.

+ If the Cubs can knock Senga out of the game by the 5th inning, they’ll get to see more of a Mets bullpen that has posted an awful 8.66 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over the last week.

+ Most of the Cubs’ bats continue to be very affordable.

- Citi Field is the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark, though there will be some 10+ mph winds blowing out this evening.

- There are not many weaknesses to point out on Senga, who has been one of the lone bright spots for the Mets this season.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Ian Happ

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k| vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

1B/OF Seth Brown, OAK | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

C Freddy Fermin, KC | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

1B/OF Jake Bauers, NYY | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

2B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Spencer Strider MORE than 9.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

Gleyber Torres MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!