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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/5 | Lighting Up the Friday Fireworks💥
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/5 | Lighting Up the Friday Fireworks💥
Looking ahead to some pitchers and stacks that can help us print on today's huge slate!
Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
I’d like to wish a happy Friday to everyone in the LineStar community (except for Jasonr345, he knows why)! It’s a great day to take a trip to the DFS ATM so let’s waste no time and dive right into the action with this evening’s colossal 13-game slate!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
It’s another fairly busy weather day on the East Coast. Yesterday we saw some trouble develop closer to first pitch in the WAS @ PHI game and while they did get several innings in before the storms arrived, they were unable to get going again after a mid-5th inning weather stoppage. So here is a gentle reminder to run a final weather check closer to 7 o’clock ET before locking in your lineups today!
PIT @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Definitely a game to keep an eye on. A scattered band of storms threatens to move in the area throughout this game. Some sort of delay is a decent likelihood and, depending on timing, storm severity, and how long these potential storms could linger, a PPD can't be ruled out entirely.
WAS @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Storm chances gradually increase later into the evening here. They could avoid trouble altogether and get a dry game in, but it will be a spot to check up on closer to first pitch.
TB @ DET (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): A few scattered storms fire off around Detroit today, but they should be cleared or in the process of clearing by first pitch. Still, some sort of delay is not off the table. No PPD risk.
HOU @ CLE (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Looks like most of the storms will be dissipating around first pitch, so maybe a late start will be needed, but once they get going, there are no issues expected at this time.
ATL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-coverage isolated storms in the NY area. They probably won’t affect this game, but there's still a chance one could make its way over the ballpark.
TOR @ MIN (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing IN from right near 15 mph. Pitchers get a bit of a boost.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.9k | @ TEX
There aren’t many pitchers who have been as locked in as Cease has been, not only recently but for multiple months. As LineStar user shortstop#13 points out in Cease’s player comments, he has allowed just four earned runs across his last 12 starts. That dates back to May 29th, and in Cease’s 70.0 IP since then, it equates to a 0.51 ERA! His 3.13 xFIP in that same span indicates some regression is due but not much. In tandem with his extremely efficient ERA, Cease leads all pitchers on the slate, by a considerable margin, with his 33.4% kRate and 16.0% SwStr%. His 31.9% HardHit% is also the lowest HH% on the slate. It’s a decent match-up against a Rangers team that has been a middle-of-the-pack offense against RHPs.
Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. LAA
Following rough outings against the Astros, Robbie Ray will look to get back on the saddle against a largely defunct Angels offense. Ray has been noticeably better when on the mound in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark where he has posted a 2.96 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, and +30.8% more FP this season. Compare those figures to his results on the road: 5.50 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP. The Angels have had real trouble hitting lefties as of late, with an MLB-low .180 AVG over the last two weeks. Ray profiles as the second-best strikeout pitcher on the slate (behind Cease) with his 27.5% kRate and 14.7% kRate, and the Mariners are strong -195 home favorites to boot.
Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL | DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CIN
Lauer is another pitcher who has shown some drastically better splits when pitching at home. In eight home games this season (47.1 IP), he has accrued an impressive 2.85 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 25.7% kRate while averaging +30.1% more FP. Getting a match-up with the Reds when they’re away from their extremely hitter-friendly home ballpark will be another major plus for Lauer -- especially after Cincy dealt away their best hitter against LHPs, Brandon Drury. Over the last month, the Reds rank either dead last or second-to-last in most major offensive categories when facing LHPs on the road: .192 AVG, .235 wOBA, .067 ISO, 48 wRC+ with a high 27.6% kRate. The Brewers are also the heaviest favorites on the slate (-240 ML odds) so we can expect a strong outing from Lauer today.
Also Consider:
Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | @ CLE
Corey Kluber (RHP), TB | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | @ DET
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Robert Dugger (RHP), CIN
The Brew Crew continues to be a dangerous squad against RHPs. Against RHPs in the L2Wks, they lead the MLB with their .307 AVG, .402 wOBA, .260 ISO, and 161 wRC+ -- massive numbers. Robert Dugger will be making his first MLB appearance in nearly a month and only has 12.0 IP on the season. In 82.2 IP in the MLB, he’s built up a poor 6.97 ERA, 5.57 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and 1.74 HR/9 Rate with just a 16.9% kRate. If there is a reason to be afraid of this match-up, I’m not finding it. Even with the Reds bullpen pitching a bit better recently, they still rate out as a bottom 10 bullpen so the Brewers are set to face some positive match-ups this entire game.
CIN Bullpen Rating: 2/10
Favorite MIL Bats: Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong | Sneaky Bat: Hunter Renfroe (5% pOwn%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD
Tyler won’t like this, but whichever way ya slice it, Manaea has not been pitching well lately. In his last five starts, he has come away with a 5.40 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.72 WHIP, .308 opp AVG, and a 2.50 HR/9 Rate. Now he has to contend with the Dodgers lineup on the road. To no surprise, the Dodgers have had plenty of success against lefties, particularly in the last couple of weeks where they’ve hit for an even .300 AVG with a .381 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 150 wRC+. When they faced Manaea back on April 24th, they were able to string together six hits (two HRs) and seven runs across just 4.1 IP (scored 10 total runs that game). With all of the new impact acquisitions on the Padres, this series will be a must-watch, though the Dodgers do look to have the upper hand in this particular game.
SD Bullpen Rating: 8/10
Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Miguel Vargas (N/A pOwn%)
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Minnesota Twins vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR
Time to see if those ugly Jose Berrios road splits rear their ugly head today. Berrios has been pitching well lately, but his lone road game in the last month came against the A’s. However, in ten total road starts this season (50.1 IP), Berrios has come away with a rough 7.15 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, .311 opp AVG, 1.55 WHIP, and 2.32 HR/9 Rate. The Twins offense has been fairly mediocre lately but long-time MLB DFS players know that Berrios is no stranger to having complete meltdowns on the road.
TOR Bullpen Rating: 6/10
Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda | Sneaky Bat: Nick Gordon (5% pOwn%)
One-Off Bats ☝️
Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL
OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), MIN
1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL
OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS
1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Robert Dugger (RHP), CIN
C Salvador Perez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS
2B Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Bryan Garcia (RHP), DET
OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings
OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL
C Carson Kelly | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL
1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL
OF Alek Thomas | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL
3B Miguel Vargas | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD
3B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS
OF Nick Gordon | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR
OF Terrin Vavra | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX
The only other player who has barreled as many baseballs as Eloy Jimenez over the last two weeks (9) goes by the name of Aaron Judge. Jimenez has homered thrice in his last 10 games -- all three of those homers have come at the expense of RHPs. Jimenez will be up against Rangers RHP Glenn Otto today. Otto is in the bottom 15th percentile of pitchers in barreled balls allowed over the last month. Against RHBs at home this year, Otto has a lofty 2.31 HR/9 Rate and 23.1% HR/FB Rate. Following Otto will be a Rangers bullpen that has allowed the third-most HRs over the last month (14). I like this spot for Jimenez to go yard at Globe Life Field, which has been a top 10 ballpark for home runs this season.
Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!
Players Props & Bets 💰
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Friday Fun Money Home Run Parlay:
Aaron Judge, Rowdy Tellez, & Salvador Perez ALL to Hit a HR | +3500 | 0.5 Units
I know a lot of people in chat like chasing some low-risk/high-reward HR parlays so here’s one to throw a small wager on. All three of these guys swing for the fences and draw positive match-ups today. Depending on your sportsbook of choice, you may get even better odds than the +3500 odds I have posted above (odds via Bovada prop builder).
Eric Lauer to Record the Win: Yes | +115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
Been having some nice success with these pitcher win props so let’s look for Lauer to record a dub today. His 7-3 record in 19 starts this season isn’t incredibly impressive, but he’s 3-1 at home where he has also posted a strong 2.85 ERA. He’s pitched at least five innings necessary for a starter to qualify for the win in four of his last five games. Primarily, the major draw here is the fact that his opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, have been so, so, so very bad against LHPs with a league-worst .192 AVG and 48 wRC+ over the last month. The Brewers offense has a great match-up against Robert Dugger and a poor Reds bullpen so you can see why they check in as the heaviest favorites on the day with -240 ML odds.
LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!
🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆
Best of luck out there today, everyone!