Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/4 | Expecting the Unexpected

August 04, 2022

This main slate is littered with some evenly-matched teams. Today's mission is to try to find the hidden edges.

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A nice mid-sized eight-game slate is on the board this evening! It’s a little interesting glancing at this slate on the surface as it relates to Vegas odds and game totals. There are no overwhelmingly heavy favorites on the board this evening and every game over/under is settled in between eight and nine runs -- just a little strange to see. On a slate of this size, you’ll usually see one or two -200 or -250 favorites and a couple of O/Us at either 7-7.5 or 9.5-10 runs (Update: PHI has moved to a -230 favorite but they're the only outlier today). WHAT DOES VEGAS KNOW?! Eh, it’s probably not that deep but it does lead me to think that this slate is going to produce several unexpected outcomes. Let’s see if we can rub the crystal ball and get some answers for ourselves!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ll have a few games on this slate where the weather may have an observable impact. In some cases, it’s the wind/temperatures and in a couple of others, it’s the potential for rain to cause a delay or bring forth a low-end chance for a PPD.

WAS @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Looking like some nice hitting weather here. Temps in the mid-90s at first pitch, humid, and winds blowing OUT to center near 10 mph.

ATL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Not quite as hot as PHI, but still warm temps (mid-80s), humid, and 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

TB @ DET (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Scattered storms lingering in the area this evening. If one makes its way over the ballpark, we may see some issues pop up. They could avoid trouble entirely but this is a forecast we’ll need to check on closer to lock. There is certainly some delay risk and a PPD can't be completely ruled out at this time, though it is unlikely.

HOU @ CLE (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Scattered storms may pop around Cleveland which will bring forth some delay risk. Much like Cleveland, a check-up on the radar closer to lock will be needed here to feel totally safe about playing anyone in this game, pitchers in particular.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.2k | @ CLE

Reminder: Keep an eye on the forecast for this game.

Verlander is far and away the best pitcher on this slate but his strikeout upside is not going to be incredible here. The Guardians are loaded with hitters who just refuse to strike out against RHPs: Steven Kwan 6.5% kRate, Jose Ramirez 9.0%, Josh Naylor 11.6%, Amed Rosario 15.7%, Myles Straw 13.2%, Owen Miller 19.3%. Given, that they’re not facing a guy like Jason Verlander every day and JV doesn’t necessarily need a boatload of Ks to return solid value. In his last outing (vs. SEA), he racked up only five Ks but still came away with 25.7 DKFP/45 FDFP. The man can just eat up innings and has gone at least seven full innings in six of his last nine starts and fewer than 6.0 IP just once in that span. While it is not the best spot, Verlander should be his usual dominant self today and he’s even been a touch better on the road this season where he has a basement-level 1.72 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and .152 opp AVG.

Update: Straw and Miller are not in the lineup for the Guardians today. Instead, they’re rolling out a couple of rookies so Verlander’s K upside may be a bit higher than what it would have been if Straw/Miller were in the lineup.

Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k | @ TEX

The more I dig into today’s pitcher player pool, the more I’m disliking it. But Johnny Cueto is someone I don’t necessarily dislike on this slate. In 14 games this season, he has managed to pitch through at least five innings in every outing, including 12 games of at least 6.0 IP. While his 16.9% kRate is well below league average, there is something to be said for a guy who consistently eats through innings and can maintain a low 2.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He’s also been extremely solid in his road games where, in 37.0 IP, he has posted a much-closer-to-league-average 21.9% kRate alongside a 1.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Texas has been a very league-average offense in recent weeks with a 98 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 17th) and .303 wOBA (18th) next to a 24.0% kRate (12th highest). It’s not a smash spot and Cueto isn’t exactly as cheap as I would like, but he has a pathway to a solid outing today.

Jose Quintana (LHP), STL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CHC

After being traded over from the Pirates, Quintana is set to make his Cardinals debut today and he’ll be in a position to provide some value at the pitching position. He has already faced this Cubs team three times this season. Across his 16.0 IP against these Cubbies in 2022, he has come away with a 2.81 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 19.4% kRate, and 1.25 WHIP. Incredible numbers? No. But serviceable. Against LHPs over the last month, the Cubs rank towards the bottom of the MLB offensively with a .204 AVG, .286 wOBA, 81 wRC+, and 26.1% kRate.

Also Consider:

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | @ NYM

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.7k | @ MIN

Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), CHC

It’s a doubleheader day for the Cards and Cubs so Chicago opted to bring Newcomb up from the minor leagues to handle a spot start in the second game of the day. He’ll be thrown into the first against a Cardinals team that has been one of the top offenses against southpaw pitching this season. St. Louis’ 123 wRC+ vs. LHPs this year trails only the New York Yankees (129 wRC+) and over the last two weeks, they lead the Majors with a massive 209 wRC+ with a .379 AVG, .491 wOBA, and .310 ISO -- however, those recent numbers stem from just a 36 PA sample size which is by far the fewest PA a team has against LHPs in that span. Point blank, teams do not want to roll out a LHP against this Cardinals lineup if they can help it. Newcomb has pitched just 9.1 innings in the MLB this season, all in a relief role. In that time, he has an 11.57 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, and 2.36 WHIP. He built up to a 71 pitch count in his most recent minor league start so he should be expected to pitch three or four innings to help save the bullpen’s workload. But things could go south quickly for Newcomb during the time he is on the mound today. The downside here is that the Cubs bullpen has been pitching really well lately with an MLB-low 1.34 ERA L2Wks.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson | Sneaky Bat: Lars Nootbaar (6% pOwn%)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

The Phillies bats will likely get a ton of love today but it is pretty apparent as to why. Paolo Espino (3.78 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP) has not been particularly good this season. Since switching over to a starter’s role going back to June 12th, Espino has started nine games (40.0 IP) and has seen his 2022 numbers dip to a 4.95 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, and 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .294 AVG and .375 wOBA in that span. Furthermore, his 46.0% Flyball Rate is the highest among all of today’s starters. A flyball pitcher doesn’t often fare well in the hot and humid conditions which he’ll be pitching in today, especially when 10 mph winds out blowing out to center.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos | Sneaky Bat: Jean Segura (5% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), PHI

The Nationals may not have Juan Soto and Josh Bell in the lineup anymore, but they’ve managed to plate 10 runs on 21 hits in the two games without them over the last couple of days. They’ll get the newly acquired Luke Voit in their lineup today and it’s obvious that the other Nationals hitters are still playing hard and they’re not going to simply roll over just because their superstar is no longer with the team. More so, this is about gaining some leverage since Noah Syndergaard is looking like he’ll be a fairly popular pitching option in many lineups today (around 20% pOwn% on both sites). He’s no longer the pitcher he once was but Syndergaard (3.83 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP) has been solid this season. However, as mentioned with the Phillies stack above, this game has some very appealing hitting weather (hot, humid, winds blowing out). On top of that, in 71 PA against this Nationals roster, he has allowed a .358 AVG, .424 wOBA, and .239 ISO which includes five home runs. It’s far from a smash spot for Syndergaard and he’ll be backed up by a Phillies bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.75 ERA over the last two weeks. There is also no shortage of cheap bats to choose from within this Washington lineup with Luke Voit (DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k) standing out as the most expensive hitter in today’s lineup.

PHI Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite WAS Bats: Luke Voit, Victor Robles, Yadiel Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Luis Garcia (10% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), CHC

OF Luis Robert | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

2B Brandon Lowe | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Hutchinson (RHP), DET

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), CHC

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), PHI

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

1B Darick Hall | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

OF Victor Robles | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), PHI

OF Jaylin Davis | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

I’ll be looking to take advantage of some truly awful reverse splits from the southpaw, Kris Bubic. Against LHBs this season, Bubic is allowing an abysmal .375 AVG, .497 wOBA, .313 ISO with a 7.98 ERA, 6.99 xFIP, 2.59 WHIP, 3.07 HR/9 Rate, and 25.0% HR/FB Rate. And this isn’t necessarily a single-season anomaly -- Bubic has been bad against lefty bats throughout his three-year MLB career. On the other side, Rafael Devers has no issues hitting lefty pitching. Sure, he is an absolute beast against RHPs, but he’s a well-above-average hitter against lefties as well. In 99 at-bats against LHPs in 2022, he’s boasting a .303 AVG, .363 wOBA, .202 ISO, and 134 wRC+ with a 22.2% HR/FB Rate. The Royals bullpen has been surrendering their fair share of dingers as well so it’s a great spot for Devers to go yard as he has done in four of his last seven games played.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Justin Verlander to Record the Win: Yes | -105 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

JV will take his sterling 1.72 road ERA and 7-2 road record (14-3 overall in 19 starts) into Cleveland this evening. The Astros are -195 favorites to win outright and Verlander is a virtual lock to pitch through at least the five full innings needed to qualify for the win. His counterpart, Zach Plesac, has just a 2-9 record on the season in 19 starts and the Astros should be able to provide some decent run support for Verlander in this game. At near even money odds, I’ll take a chance on this prop all day.

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

LHP Sean Newcomb draws the spot start in the second leg of the doubleheader today and when a lefty is on the mound against Goldschmidt, I cannot smash this prop fast enough. Is it a total lock to hit? Of course not. And Goldy may only get a couple of at-bats against Newcomb who is not a fully stretched-out starter (71 pitches in his last minor league start). But against LHPs this season, Goldschmidt is hitting for a ridiculous .464 AVG with a .577 wOBA, .406 ISO, 1.431 OPS, and has a 292 wRC+! He’s a .300 hitter against righties as well, so he doesn’t necessarily have to cash this prop solely against Newcomb today.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!