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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday, my friends! It’s about that time to buckle in and get set for another huge day of hard-hitting MLB action. Eleven games land on today’s main slate and it is loaded with some great pitching and stack options. Let’s go crush this one, ladies and gentlemen! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ll have a few pesky forecasts to monitor. At the moment, nothing looks like a definite washout or even a definite chance for a delay, but be sure to run a pre-game weather check on the first four games mentioned below.

• NYM @ BAL (7:05 ET): Chance for a little precipitation in the later innings. Nothing overly concerning.

• KC @ PHI (7:05 ET): Moderate chance of some stray storms throughout the evening which will up the delay risk here.

• HOU @ NYY (7:05 ET): Rain is bordering on “likely” in the middle/later innings. If it’s lighter stuff, they can just play through it but, for now, a touch of risk is tacked on to starting pitchers.

• TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET): Some rainstorms look to move into the BOS area this evening bringing some moderately high delay risk and low-end PPD risk.

• CWS @ CLE (7:10 ET): Winds IN from center at 10+ mph. Bump to pitchers.

• ARI @ MIN (8:10 ET): Winds IN from center around 10 mph.

• SEA @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $9.9k | vs. KC

Note: Keep an eye on the forecast here since there is some risk of an in-game delay.

By his lofty standards, this has not been a stellar season for Nola, who has accumulated a very so-so 4.43 ERA through 22 starts. However, his 3.82 xFIP indicates he’s been pitching better than his ERA would indicate and he’s also a more reliable pitcher when he’s on the bump at home. In 52.1 IP at home this season, Nola has produced a 3.27 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .193 opp AVG, and 27.4% kRate while averaging +30.5% more FPPG.

The Royals do come into this game with some momentum with back-to-back three-game sweeps at home of the Twins and Mets. However, they’ll be the visiting team today and Kansas City’s 3.28 runs/gm on the road this season is, by far, the worst in the MLB. They also do not match up well against Nola’s primary pitch mix of curveball (32%), 4-seam (27.7%), and sinker (19.5%). Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Royals have the 3rd lowest wOBA (.310) and 3rd highest kRate (23.6%). The Royals have put up a .230 AVG, 76 wRC+, and a 27.0% kRate on the road against RHPs this season. Nola has shown double-digit K upside on multiple occasions this year and has pitched at least seven innings in three of his last five -- at least six innings in 17 of his last 19 starts. He’ll feel like a strong floor + upside DFS play today and the Phillies (-245 ML) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. SEA

Detmers is another pitcher who has shown some significantly stronger splits at home (+69.7% more FPPG!), which is where he’ll be this evening. Here is a quick rundown of his home/away splits this season:

Home: 62.0 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, .230 opp AVG, 0.87 HR/9, 32.7% kRate (!)

Away: 39.1 IP, 5.49 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, .250 opp AVG, 1.37 HR/9, 24.1% kRate

Detmer’s extreme spike in his strikeout rate at home is what really makes him stand out as a quality DFS target today -- a 32.7% kRate is elite. Any quality lefty is going to be worth some consideration against this Mariners squad right now. Over the last month versus LHPs, Seattle has managed to post just a .273 wOBA, an MLB-low .064 ISO, and a 76 wRC+ to go along with a huge 29.5% kRate (2nd highest). Sportsbooks are placing a 7.0 over/under on Detmers’ strikeout prop, which is tied for a slate-high alongside his counterpart today, Luis Castillo. While he may not have the safest of floors, Detmers brings ample upside to DFS lineups today and is priced quite reasonably out of the mid-range.

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. PIT

There are a few value pitchers on this slate worth rolling the dice on and Colin Rea will get the spotlight today. Rea’s season numbers are not overly impressive -- 4.76 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, and 20.6% kRate -- but he has pitched fairly well over his last dozen starts and has had only a couple of truly awful fantasy outings in that stretch.

When searching for SP value yesterday we went to Rea’s teammate, Adrian Houser, in this same Pirates match-up. The Pirates have now scored four runs or fewer in 19 of their last 26 games and, during that stretch versus RHPs, they’re hitting just .226 with an 84 wRC+ and 26.5% kRate. Houser was able to deliver a quality start along with a win, going 6.0 IP on 95 pitches, allowing four hits, two walks, one run, and five Ks -- good for 21.9 DKFP/40 FDFP. We’ll be looking for similar results with Rea and the Brewers, who are once again hefty home favorites (-175 ML odds).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.7k | @ LAA

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k | @ NYY

Logan Allen (LHP), CLE | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CWS

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ SD

Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.2k | @ CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

+ Cardinals: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Flexen has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this season, but whether starting or coming in in relief, he’s been pretty awful: 8.08 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, 1.93 WHIP, 23.2% HR/FB Rate, and .414 opp wOBA.

+ The Cardinals have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month: .265 AVG (7th), .783 OPS (7th), .339 wOBA (7th), and 116 wRC+ (8th).

+ Busch Stadium has ranked as the #4 hitter’s park this season and the Cardinals have been much better at home (5.06 runs/gm) than on the road (4.33 runs/gm).

+ Even when giving them the benefit of the doubt with having to often pitch in Coors Field, the Rockies have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season and traded away some of their best relievers ahead of the August 1st trade deadline.

- The Cardinals were sellers at the deadline and have scored three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games.

- A major factor in the Cardinals’ recent offensive struggles has been a lack of production from their top two hitters (Goldschmidt & Arenado) -- both guys are in a bit of a slump.

Favorite STL Bats: Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman

Bargain Bat: Tyler O’Neill

Houston Astros vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

+ Astros: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ Severino has been in some awful form -- since July 1st (five starts), he’s come away with an 11.22 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, .410 opp AVG, .497 opp wOBA, 15.8% kRate, and 2.90 HR/9 Rate.

+ Since getting Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back in the lineup (7/26), against RHPs, the Astros have ranked top-10 in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, kRate, home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases.

+ The Astros have been better on the road (5.04 runs/gm) than at home (4.45 runs/gm).

+ Based on their 4.50 xFIP, the Yankees have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last 30 days and two of their best relievers (Clay Holmes & Michael King) may not be available after pitching in yesterday’s closely contested 4-3 game.

- Yankee Stadium has been the #11 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- While it’s still not great, Severino’s 5.03 xFIP in his last five starts is more indicative of where his ERA should be during that 11.22 ERA stretch.

- The Astros have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve

Bargain Bat: Jose Abreu

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), TEX

+ Rangers: 8-of-9 projected hitters have a ≤ 3% pOwn%.

+ Luzardo has been less effective on the road (-27.2% less FPPG) -- in 46.2 IP on the road this season, he owns a lackluster 4.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .288 opp AVG, and .352 opp wOBA.

+ Luzardo: 94.4 mph average exit velocity L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Rangers’ MLB stats/ranks vs. LHPs at home: .292 AVG (4th), .852 OPS (2nd), .367 wOBA (2nd), .199 ISO (6th), 35.6% HardContact% (5th), and 135 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Globe Life Field has been the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season (#1 HR park).

+ Rangers are averaging an MLB-best 6.16 runs/gm at home.

-/+ Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-8th on the slate).

- Based on their 3.91 xFIP, the Marlins’ have had a top-five bullpen this season.

Favorite TEX Bats: Josh Jung, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Mitch Garver

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

1B Bryce Harper, STL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

OF Tyler O’Neill, STL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

OF/SS Jon Berti, MIA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

C Tom Murphy, SEA | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

C Connor Wong, BOS | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ryan Mountcastle MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Logan Allen + Mike Clevinger LESS than 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!