Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/31 | Ending August on a High Note!

August 31, 2022

The headlines will focus on deGrom vs. the Dodgers but this slate has much more to offer!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Before we close the book on August, we’ve got a busy day of baseball to dig into! The main slate will feature a solid nine-game set, including a marquee match-up with Jacob deGrom taking on the mighty Dodgers lineup. Is deGrom going to make it into your lineups today or is the juice not worth the squeeze given his lofty DFS salaries and difficult match-up? There are many ways to attack this slate so let’s get the ball rolling!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Looks like clear skies all around for this slate! No issues to worry about.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.1k | @ LAA

At his five-figure DFS salaries, Cole has become fool’s gold in many of his recent starts. He has not been awful, but when you’re paying $10k-$11k, you want better, more consistent results than what he has been giving you. He did crush it in his last start against a soft Oakland opponent and he could certainly find plenty of success in this match-up with the Angels. As usual, Trout and Ohtani represent the only super dangerous hitter’s in this lineup and no other team in the MLB has struck out against RHPs as often as the Angels have recently (26.6% kRate L2Wks).In 80 plate appearances against this LAA team, Gerrit Cole has held them to a .176 AVG while recording a 33.8% kRate. Signs point towards us seeing the ‘elite’ version of Cole today.

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k | @ NYM

Anderson (2.69 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 19.9% kRate) isn’t going to blow anyone away, but he’s a quality starter and, as it translates to DFS, he can usually pitch well enough to net you 20+ DKFP/40+ FDFP. He has registered a quality start in eight of his last ten outings, and he’s facing a Mets team today that has been ‘sneaky bad’ against lefties. Over the last two weeks against LHPs (125 plate appearances), the Mets have hit for just a .188 AVG with a .272 OBP, 79 wRC+, and 22.4% kRate. It’ll be a difficult pathway to victory with Jacob deGrom on the other side, but Anderson is a guy to keep on your radar and could check in with single-digit ownership (7% pOwn% on DK, 2% pOwn% on FD).

Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. KC

As usual, pitching ownership is going to be heavily skewed towards the top of the board. Today, that is deGrom, Cole, and Wright. But Lance Lynn might be one guy to put on your radar if you’re sifting through the mid-range looking for a viable option. He is gradually looking more and more like the Lance Lynn of old. Across his last seven starts (41.1 IP), Lynn has impressed with a 2.83 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, .210 opp AVG, 0.90 WHIP, and 29.4% kRate. His worst start in that seven-game stretch came on the road against this same Royals team, but this go-around he’ll be in his home ballpark where he has been noticeably better (2.61 xFIP at home, 4.09 xFIP on the road) and averages +38.8% more fantasy points. The Royals have scored 24 runs in their last two games but, long term, they have been a well-below-average offense against RHPs and rank inside the bottom 10 in most major offensive categories.

Also Consider:

 

Jacob deGrom (RHP), NYM | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12k | vs. LAD

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

The Blue Jays bats love to fall completely flat in good spots, so we’ll see if they can take advantage of this juicy-looking match-up today. Luke Farrell has made only two MLB appearances this season, pitching 4.1 innings (71 pitches) and 2.2 innings (55 pitches) so we probably shouldn’t expect him to handle a full starter’s workload. In 94.2 IP across his career, he has come away with a 4.85 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, and a 1.71 HR/9 Rate. Not great. Behind him will be a struggling Cubs bullpen that has posted a 6.49 ERA over the last two weeks along with an MLB-worst 2.41 HR/9 Rate.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette | Sneaky Bat: Teoscar Hernandez (2% pOwn%)

 

Seattle Mariners vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

The Mariners have been a stout offense against lefties this season, even more so in recent weeks. In the last two weeks against LHPs, Seattle has posted a .236 ISO (ranks 2nd) and a 134 wRC+ (ranks 9th). Tyler Alexander (4.83 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 12.3% kRate) is not an overly impressive pitcher and he’s allowed a slate-high 10.9% Barrel%. That could spell trouble against a Mariners offense that ranks 4th with an 8.9% Barrel% (L2Wks).

DET Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: Sam Haggerty (5% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

The aversion most have towards rostering A’s bats should keep them low-owned despite the advantageous match-up against Anibal Sanchez (5.72 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 20.0% HR/FB Rate). Sanchez has shown some very poor reverse splits on the year. Against RHBs, he has accumulated a 6.62 ERA, 6.45 xFIP, 1.98 WHIP, .448 opp wOBA, .314 opp ISO, and a 3.57 HR/9 Rate. Very rough numbers. The A’s will end up rolling out eight right-handed hitters in their lineup today, and this offense has actually been better than you may think. Their 90 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks isn’t spectacular, but it ranks them at 15th in the MLB, ahead of teams like the Braves, Blue Jays, Twins, Padres, and Yankees! I’m fairly sure if any of those teams were facing Anibal Sanchez, they’d be the chalkiest stack on the slate. Some A’s bats should be on the GPP radar today.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 6/10 (pitching surprisingly well lately)

Favorite OAK Bats: Shea Langeliers, Sean Murphy, Chad Pinder | Sneaky Bat: Dermis Garcia (11% pOwn%)

Note: Unfortunately, playing both Langeliers and Murphy will not be possible on DK since both have catcher eligibility only.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF George Springer | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

3B Alec Bohm | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

C Sean Murphy | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Shea Langeliers | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Victor Reyes | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Stone Garrett | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

1B Dermis Garcia | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

OF Sam Haggerty | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

Sam Haggerty's match-up splits

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF George Springer | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

We go hunting for the ‘Springer Dinger’ today! Luke Farrell doesn’t have many MLB innings this year, but over his career (94.2 IP), he has allowed a 37.8% HardContact% and 1.66 HR/9 Rate to RHBs. Springer (.354 wOBA, .218 ISO vs. RHPs) has shown more power against RHPs this season and 16 of his 19 HRs have been hit off of righties as well. If he doesn’t take Farrell deep, Springer will still have some home run upside against this Cubs bullpen that has been giving up home runs at a torrid pace lately (league-high 2.41 HR/9 rate L2Wks). 

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

JT Realmuto OVER 0.5 RBI | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

If this prop stays at plus money and JT Realmuto stays hot at the plate, why not keep returning to it? Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last nine games. The Phillies are up against a young lefty in Tommy Henry, who has posted a pretty impressive 3.25 ERA across his first five career MLB starts. However, Henry’s 5.13 xFIP and 5.09 SIERA would suggest that he is not pitching as well as the 3.25 ERA would indicate right now and he may be due for some regression. Realmuto has also recorded seven RBI in his last 22 plate appearances against LHPs. Behind Henry will be a D-Backs bullpen with an MLB-worst 6.93 ERA over the last two weeks, so I’ll look for Realmuto (likely batting 4th or 5th) to cash in on this prop once again this evening.

Jacob deGrom OVER 8.5 Strikeouts | -122 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

deGrom finally has a strikeout prop under nine, and, at least on FanDuel, it’s not far off from an even money bet! Are the Dodgers a great offense and a scary match-up? Of course. But they’re not necessarily the toughest team to strike out. Their 21.4% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month is not much better than league average, and they’re up against the beast Jacob deGrom, who has registered a ridiculous 44.7% kRate and 21.9% Swinging Strike Rate in his five starts this season. He has racked up at least nine strikeouts in his last four starts and is handling close to a full workload at this point.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!