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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got some split slate action popping off today, so I hope everyone who dabbled in the early slate is well inside the money zone! A six-game main slate is on the ticket today, and do keep in mind that it will get underway a bit earlier than usual with games beginning at 6:40 ET. The Coors Field factor becomes amplified on a slate of this size. Deciding on how much exposure you want to ATL/COL, if any, will be the biggest decision to make. Fade Coors bats and hope for a low-scoring game (like yesterday) or spend up on those big ATL/COL bats and hope for a high-scoring affair (like Monday) at the expense of trading off high-end pitching and/or hitters elsewhere. Best of luck with whatever approach you choose to take with this small Coors slate!

Quick note for Thursday: With only three late MLB games tomorrow, I’ll be forgoing a newsletter for that slate and instead write up the big Thursday college football slate (11 games, 7:00 ET kickoff). It’s a great time to get into CFB DFS if you haven’t tried it yet!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY @ DET (6:40 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

• TEX @ NYM (6:40 ET): Winds IN from left around 15 mph.

• PIT @ KC (8:10 ET): 10 mph winds IN from center.

• ATL @ COL (8:40 ET): Warm temps around 90 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center/left. Great hitting conditions at Coors Field, to say the least.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | @ MIA

We may see a bit of a pitcher’s duel take place in this Rays/Marlins match-up which pins Zach Eflin vs. Jesus Luzardo and features a slate-low 7.5-run over/under. Eflin rides in on some strong form with four quality starts (6.0+ IP & ≤ 3 ER) and at least 20.5 DKFP/37 FDFP scored in four of his last five starts. In that span, he has maintained a strong 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate and walked just three batters over 28.0 IP.

Eflin has been less effective on the road (-37.4% less FPPG) but loanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly environment and the Marlins do represent a fairly strong match-up. Against RHPs over the last month, Miami ranks bottom-10 in AVG, wOBA, wRC+, and HardContact%. The catch is that they do not strike out very much with a 19.3% kRate (5th lowest) against RHPs in that same span. Regardless, Eflin is a favorable DFS option on this slate and he’ll have a solid chance to return fantasy scores around 25 DKFP/40 FDFP even if he doesn’t rack up a huge strikeout total.

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. ARI

This is an interesting spot for Pepiot who has looked great in his two MLB appearances this season -- both coming in bulk relief efforts against the Marlins and Guardians. In those combined 9.0 IP, Pepiot surrendered just two earned runs while accounting for a 0.78 WHIP, 32.4% kRate, and 14.6% SwStr%. Pepiot also looked solid in the offensive-centric PCL Triple-A league, racking up 26 strikeouts over 22.1 IP (10.3 K/9) and maintaining a 1.15 WHIP. The biggest concern in his first official start of the MLB season will be centered around his workload. Pepiot only threw 75 and 76 pitches in his previous two appearances, but the hope would be that he could increase that closer to 85-90 pitches tonight and position himself for a win with five or six innings of work.

The D-Backs have been a subpar offense against RHPs over the last month, ranking 19th with a 93 wRC+ during that stretch alongside a mid-pack 22.8% kRate. They also rank 18th with a .318 xwOBA against Pepiot’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, changeup, and slider. Pepiot is backed up by a hot Dodgers offense which helps factor into their strong -177 ML odds. If we can get those five, maybe six, innings out of Pepiot, he could come away as the best mid-range SP on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.1k | @ DET

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ NYM

Darius Vines (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Darius Vince (RHP), ATL

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

+ Dodgers: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Pfaadt has been a subpar starter on the season given his 5.91 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and 45.6% HardHit%.

+ Pfaadt L30Days: 10 barreled balls allowed (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Dodgers own a .349 wOBA and .219 ISO against Pfaadt’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, sweeper, and changeup.

+ The Dodgers vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .297 AVG, .850 OPS, .362 wOBA, .197 ISO, 131 wRC+, and 39.2% HardContact%.

+ The Dodgers have been the #3 home offense in the MLB, averaging 5.39 runs/gm and Dodger Stadium has ranked as the #5 home run ballpark this season.

+ The D-Backs bullpen has not been sharp over the last month: 5.51 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 1.60 HR/9 Rate.

- Pfaadt has been pitching well as of late, with a 3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 25.0% kRate over his last five starts.

- Pfaadt has fared better on the road where his 4.20 ERA is over three runs lower than his 7.30 ERA at home.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy

Bargain Bat: James Outman

Texas Rangers vs. Denyi Reyes (RHP), NYM

+ Rangers: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ In limited work (12.0 IP), Reyes has been unexceptional in his MLB appearances this season: 7.50 ERA, 5.47 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, .320 opp AVG, and .391 opp wOBA.

+ Reyes struggled mightily in 76.0 IP in Triple-A Syracuse where he posted a 5.80 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and a huge 2.50 HR/9 Rate.

+ Against Reyes’ primary pitch mix (4-seamer, slider, cutter, changeup), the Rangers rank top five in AVG, wOBA, xwOBA, and average exit velocity.

+ The Mets have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month: 5.87 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.54 HR/9.

- Citi Field has ranked as the #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season and some 15 mph winds blowing in will make for some tough home run hitting conditions.

- The Rangers bats have cooled off considerably against RHPs over the last two weeks, ranking 22nd in AVG, 21st in wOBA, and 22nd in wRC+, and they have posted a high 27.6% kRate in that stretch.

- The Rangers average over a run less per game on the road (5.02 runs/gm) versus at home (6.09 runs/gm).

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver

Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates (RHBs Preferred) vs. Angel Zerpa (LHP), KC

+ Pirates: (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ 7-of-9 Pirates hitters in the projected lineup have a ≤ 11% pOwn%.

+ Zerpa won’t have a traditional starter’s workload, but he did pitch through 3.0 innings and 4.0 innings in his previous two starts.

+ Zerpa has been awful against RHBs so that’s the side of the plate we should favor when stacking the Pirates -- Zerpa vs. RHBs: 10.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .340 opp AVG, .435 opp wOBA, .282 opp ISO, and 3.00 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Royals bullpen has been a point of weakness -- over the last month, they have put up a 5.98 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, and 1.85 HR/9 Rate.

+ Kauffman Stadium has ranked as the #7 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The Pirates have struggled against LHPs over the last month with a .217 AVG and 70 wRC+.

Favorite PIT Bats: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds

Bargain Bat: Liover Peguero

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Denyi Reyes (RHP), NYM

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Brendan White (RHP), & Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Andre Jackson (RHP), PIT

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

OF Randy Arozarena, TB | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Darius Vines (RHP), ATL

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Angel Zerpa (LHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Denyi Reyes (RHP), NYM

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Denyi Reyes (RHP), NYM

OF Kevin Pillar, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B/OF Connor Joe, PIT | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Angel Zerpa (LHP), KC

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Darius Vines (RHP), ATL

OF DJ Stewart, NYM | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Jason Heyward, LAD | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Zach Eflin MORE than 29.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

James Outman MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!