The Friars were big buyers at the deadline. Will they see immediate results tonight?

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Now that the trade deadline madness has come and gone, it is time to see how those moves will play out. There weren’t a copious amount of marquee moves made, but the most active trade team, the San Diego Padres, find themselves on this evening’s small five-game main slate. As you can tell by the Padres’ massive -310 moneyline odds to win against the Rockies tonight, Vegas is expecting some immediate impacts from all of those big pickups, headlined by the Juan Soto acquisition. Today is going to be PADRES CHAT whether you like it or not. Now, can the new look lineup come through? And what other teams are set to excel on this small slate? Let’s try to figure that out!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Only one game to track on this small slate, but it will carry some notable postponement risk. When we’re talking a five-game slate, one game getting knocked off the docket is a pretty big deal so let’s keep our fingers crossed!

CHC @ STL (7:45 ET, 8 O/U): Storms are set to move in towards the early-to-middle innings here, and they could hang around for most of the evening. They may need to get a little lucky to get this game in tonight and a PPD is a definite possibility. I wouldn’t knock CHC/STL players out of consideration just yet, but we will need to check the forecast here closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k | vs OAK

Quickly, let’s hit on Freddy Peralta ($9.7k/$10.5k) who faces the Pirates on the road today. This is Peralta’s (lat) first MLB start since May 22nd and he only tossed 52 pitches in his most recent minor league rehab start. It would seem that around a 70 pitch count workload would be a reasonable expectation. If that is the case, it will be quite difficult for him to return value on his lofty DFS salaries.

So we move to Shohei Ohtani who is the no-doubt, no-brainer play of the day and we can expect upwards of 60% ownership here (even after DraftKings has finally decided to price him more appropriately). It’s a tough fade on such a small slate. As usual, Ohtani outshines all other pitchers on the slate with his immense K upside (36.4% kRate, 16.1% SwStr%) and he’s averaging right at 100 pitches/gm over his last five. The A’s offense has been much improved in recent weeks (117 wRC+ L2Wks, ranks 8th) but they may revert to their cold-hitting ways when they’re in the batter’s box against Ohtani.

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. COL

PADRES CHAT?! Snell is looking like a strong, albeit somewhat volatile option out of the mid-range. He tends to be more reliable when he’s pitching on his home mound and he’s lined up with a plus match-up against the Rockies tonight. Over the last month when Colorado has faced left-handed pitching away from Coors Field, they’re hitting just .195 with a .256 wOBA, 61 wRC+. and 22.0% kRate. Snell has an excellent 29.3% kRate on the year but he’s increased that to a huge 36.4% kRate over his last five starts. Snell’s high walk rate continues to be an issue but, fortunately, the Rockies also have just a 4.2% BB% vs. LHPs over the last month (2nd lowest). The new look Padres with Juan Soto and Josh Bell in the lineup plus Josh Hader available as their new closer are titanic -310 favorites today, so Snell has a wide open pathway to a win today and has legitimate 30 DKFP/50 FDFP upside.

Also Consider:

*Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CHC

James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.7k | @ LAA

*Weather concerns

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

MORE PADRES CHAT? Expectations are certainly high today so let’s see if they live up to the hype. The starting lineup is not yet released at the time of this writing, but all indications point toward Juan Soto and Josh Bell making their Padres debut tonight. To say the least, it’s a major boost to an offense that has been hovering around the middle-of-the-pack in offensive production this season (100 wRC+, ranks 14th) while they wait on superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. (wrist) to return. Tatis is still about a week or so away from making his 2022 MLB debut, but there is no doubt that the Padres now have enough firepower to jump on RHP Chad Kuhl (4.59 ERA, 4.96 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP) and the Rockies bullpen.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado | Sneaky Bat: Wil Myers (7% pOwn%)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Beede (RHP) + Pirates Bullpen Game

The Brewers lead the slate and the entire MLB with a 145 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Against right-handed pitching, that rises to a 169 wRC+ along with a .314 AVG, .413 wOBA, and .279 ISO. RHP Tyler Beede (3.38 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, 41.8% HardContact%) is set to make his first start of the season as he serves as the Pirates opener while likely covering the first two or three frames. For a guy who has worked as a reliever all season, his numbers are not very strong. A Pirates bullpen that has been mediocre, at best, recently will look to fill in the remaining six or seven innings once Beede’s day is done.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong, Rowdy Tellez | Sneaky Bat: Luis Urias (2% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

The Angels offense has been dreadful and you won’t be able to use Shohei Ohtani with any LAA stack build. But if you want to get very different on a small slate where it is difficult to be contrarian, perhaps consider a small two or three-man Angels stack. James Kaprielian has been pitching decently well as of late while posting a 1.93 ERA over his previous five starts. However, on the season, he ranks last among all starters (min. 60 IP) with his 5.26 xFIP, and his 5.18 SIERA is second-worst. The A’s bullpen is not elite by any stretch so there is potential that a small LAA stack can work out decently well, but the risk is apparent.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite LAA Bats: Max Stassi, Luis Rengifo, David Fletcher | Sneaky Bat: Jo Adell (3% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

*1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

2B/SS Luis Rengifo | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

*Weather Concerns

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

*OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

3B Luis Urias | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), PIT

C Max Stassi | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Trent Grisham | DK: $2.9k, FD: | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Wil Myers | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF James Outman | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

*OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

*Weather Concerns

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Jurickson Profar | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Profar has been locked in over his last five games while hitting .565 with a .703 wOBA and .522 ISO. In that five-game stretch, the Padres' switch-hitting lead-off man has six XBH including three home runs. His best season splits have been at home against RHPs (.393 wOBA, .256 ISO, 160 wRC+, 15.9% HR/FB Rate), and he’ll be a strong home run candidate against a below-average start in Chad Kuhl who has allowed a 1.38 HR/9 Rate and 38.7% HardContact% vs. LHBs this season.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Luis Rengifo OVER 0.5 Singles | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Rengifo is batting .346 over his last 20 games. Out of his 27 hits in that stretch, 20 have been singles. He faces a not-so-great pitcher in James Kaprielian today who will be supported by a not-so-great A’s bullpen. This prop will have a great chance to cash at close to even money odds.

Blake Snell to Record the Win: Yes | -115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Snell has pitched through at least five full innings in five of his last six outings with the lone exception being a Coors Field start. As most are aware, a starting pitcher must cover at least the first five innings to qualify for the win. He’s usually more comfortable/consistent when pitching at home and as long as he doesn’t get into trouble by racking up a ton of walks (COL, second-lowest walk rate vs. LHPs when away from Coors Field over the last month) then his offense should put him in a good position to earn the win. The Padres have massive -310 moneyline odds this evening, so Snell may be looking at earning his fourth win in five starts.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!