Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Apologies for no MLB newsletters the last couple of days, but we are back at it today! Unlike some recent Thursdays, we’ll have a nice little evening main slate lined up with six games on the docket. Should be a fun one! I’m writing today’s newsletter from the road again so it will be a bit abbreviated, but we’ll be searching for the right pieces to the puzzle regardless. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• HOU @ NYY (7:15 ET): It’s a cloudy evening which could bring along a bit of rain with it but nothing too serious. 10-15 mph winds blowing right to left.

• MIN @ STL (7:45 ET): A moderately low chance for a rain delay -- the worst of it should arrive after the game is over. Light winds blowing IN from center.

• CIN @ CHC (8:05 ET): Light 5 mph winds OUT to left.

• SEA @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $11k, FD: $10.4k | vs. SEA

To play or not to play Ohtani will be a big decision on this slate. He’s in a tier of his own among today’s starters, leading the way with a 32.0% kRate -- the next closest SP on the slate has a 25.8% kRate (Bryan Woo). Ohtani has also put up a 34.1% kRate and .179 opp AVG at home this season, as opposed to a 29.2% kRate and .194 opp AVG on the road.

Ohtani will face a Mariners team that has been clicking nicely against RHPs over the last month, ranking 8th with a 117 wRC+ during that span. However, they’ve also posted a lofty 27.2% kRate in the same time frame (4th highest). Ohtani has pitched against the division rival Mariners quite a bit and in 94 PA against the current Seattle roster, he has held them to a meager .173 AVG and .237 wOBA. Ohtani’s pitching performances have been fairly inconsistent over the last two months but there’s no question that he has the most raw DFS upside on this slate. Not that we can play him as a hitter in DFS today, but he’ll also have a great chance to hit home run No. 40 against his pitching counterpart, Bryan Woo, who struggles mightily against lefty bats.

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CIN

The pitching isn’t outstanding on this slate but, given how well he’s been pitching lately, Taillon deserves some DFS consideration, particularly on DraftKings where he seems a bit underpriced at $6,200. Across his last four starts, Taillon has procured an excellent 1.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .191 opp AVG. His 18.4% kRate during that span isn’t going to blow anyone away but the main takeaway is that he’s been able to limit base runners and run damage as of late.

There is plenty of young talent on the Reds roster and they’re far from a cakewalk match-up. That said, their 90 wRC+ vs RHPs over the last month ranks them 20th in MLB and their 26.2% kRate checks in as the 6th highest strikeout rate. Taillon did not fare well against the Reds back on May 27th of this season (4.2 IP, 80 PC, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 ER, 5 K) but he was also in much worse form going into that outing. Ultimately, Taillon gives you a decent chance at 20 DKFP upside today which makes him worth an SP2 flier at $6,200 DK.

Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. PIT

From one SP2 flier to another -- Houser owns a slate-low $5,200 price tag on DraftKings today, and he’s not the worst punt at $7,400 on FanDuel either. Houser has posted a lackluster 17.4% kRate this season, but he has increased that to a respectable 22.7% kRate over his last five starts.

Just like any MLB offense, the Pirates can pop off occasionally but more often than not, they’re routinely struggling to put up three or four runs on a nightly basis. They have scored four runs or fewer in 18 of their last 25 games. In that span, they’re hitting just .228 against RHPs to go along with an 87 wRC+ and 26.5% kRate. If Houser can simply deliver a quality start (6.0+ IP & ≤3 ER) and pick up a handful of strikeouts, he’ll be able to pay off these low DFS salaries. The Brewers are also moderate -132 ML favorites so we’ll see if he can position himself to be in line for a win bonus as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. OAK

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

+ Cubs: 5.7 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Luke Weaver is arguably the lowest-quality starter on the slate with a poor 6.80 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and 18.3% HR/FB Rate this season.

+ The Cubs have been mashing righty pitching lately -- vs. RHPs L2Weeks the Cubs own a .341 AVG (1st), 1.023 OPS (1st), .432 wOBA (1st), .274 ISO (2nd), and 18.8% kRate (3rd lowest).

+ Cubs are averaging 5.55 runs/gm at home this season.

+ There will be light winds blowing out to left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field (#8 most hitter-friendly park this season).

+ The Reds have consistently had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

- The Cubs will likely be the chalkiest stack on this slate with several hitters projected for well over 20% ownership.

- While his away numbers still aren’t great, Weaver has been a bit less of a gas can when pitching on the road.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Los Angeles Angels (LHBs Preferred) vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

+ We’ll be looking to attack Bryan Woo’s extremely poor splits vs. LHBs this season: 11.00 ERA, 6.67 xFIP, 2.33 WHIP, .386 AVG, .506 wOBA, .386 ISO, and 3.50 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Angels have posted a 128 wRC+ against RHPs at home over the last month.

+ Angel Stadium has been the #11 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season (#6 HR park).

- Since Shohei Ohtani is pitching tonight, we won’t be able to utilize him in any offensive stacks.

- The Mariners have had an outstanding bullpen this season, leading the MLB in bullpen xFIP.

Favorite LAA Bats: Luis Rengifo, Mickey Moniak, Mike Moustakas

Bargain Bat: Matt Thaiss

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

+ Astros: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ This should be a low-owned stack with all nine Astros hitters currently holding a ≤6% pOwn%.

+ Schmidt has been a middling starter this season (4.39 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP) but he tends to give up plenty of hard contact and barreled balls.

+ Schmidt has allowed a high 43.4% HardHit% this season, six barreled balls L30Days (bottom 20th percentile), and has a high 1.78 HR/9 Rate at home.

+ It’s a short sample size, but since getting both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back in the lineup on July 26th, here are the Astros' offensive results/ranks vs. RHPs: .819 OPS (5th), .355 wOBA (5th), .207 ISO (4th), and 130 wRC+ (4th).

+ The Astros have been a more prolific offense on the road -- 5.08 runs/gm away, 4.45 runs/gm home.

+ Based on their 4.63 xFIP, the Yankees have had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month.

- Schmidt has a low 0.94 WHIP over his last five starts.

- Schmidt has allowed a low .290 wOBA to RHBs this season -- Astros are a very righty-heavy team.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B/SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.6k., FD: $3.6k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/SS Amed Rosario, LAD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

2B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

C Yan Gomes, CHC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

3B Mike Moustakas, LAA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

3B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

CODY BELLINGER!!!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Yordan Alvarez MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 9.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!