Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/29 | Breaking Down a Solid Monday Slate!

August 29, 2022

We'll be looking for a Corbin Burnes bounce-back performance and a big night for several offenses this evening...

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Somehow, September is already knocking at the door as we enter the final stretch of the regular season! If you’re on DraftKings, this Monday will set you up with a solid eight-game slate to dissect. Be sure to account for today's earlier start time as DK contests will lock at 6:40 ET/3:40 PT! FanDuel will limit its main slate to only the six games starting at 7:07 ET or later. The six mutually shared games will be the primary focus of this newsletter but some plays from the two 6:40 ET games will be touched on as well. Let’s have a day!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

STL @ CIN (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Some scattered rainstorms will place the possibility of a delay on the table here. Starting pitchers carry some risk due to the chance of a mid-game delay, but bats should be safe!

BOS @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to center around 10-15 mph. Bats get a little boost.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.1k | vs. PIT

Burnesy is coming off his worst start of the season (3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 ER, 3 K) but going from pitching on the road against the Dodgers to facing the Pirates at home is about as positive of a match-up swing as any pitcher could hope for. Over the last two weeks against righties, the Pirates are hitting just .209 with a .264 wOBA, 66 wRC+, and 25.9% kRate. Burnes has also seen his strikeout rate climb from a 27.8% kRate on the road to a 34.7% kRate at home. Burnes’ ownership will be in the 40% to 50% range, perhaps even higher, but it is an obvious spot for a potential ceiling game.

Frankie Montas (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.1k | @ LAA

Montas’ time as a Yankee has been unremarkable, to say the least, but he did show some positive signs in his most recent outing where he held a pesky Mets offense to two runs on six hits across 5.2 IP while striking out six. While Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are always major threats to do some damage, the rest of the Angels lineup often doesn’t offer up too much resistance. No other team in the MLB is striking out as much as the Angels have in recent weeks (27.5% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks). Montas recorded 12 strikeouts in a game against the Angels earlier this season (both Trout and Ohtani were in the lineup) and despite his recent struggles in pinstripes, it is nice to know that he carries that sort of K upside. It’s also worth noting that, in six career starts (30.0 IP) at Angel Stadium, Montas has come away with an outstanding 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .178 opp AVG, and 26.1 % kRate. He’ll be worth a look out of the mid-range today.

Michael Grove (RHP), LAD | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ MIA

This is, of course, a ‘DraftKings only’ play and one that should only be considered only in GPPs as a dart throw SP2. Grove gets the impromptu start for the Dodgers today after Tony Gonsolin was placed on the 15-day IL with a forearm injury. The major risk here is not knowing how deep Grove will pitch into the game and his ceiling would likely be around five innings. He did make one start earlier this season back on May 15th against the Phillies. He covered 3.2 IP on 70 pitches and while he did allow four runs in that game, they were all unearned. Grove has posted decent numbers as a starter in the minor leagues -- most notably a 26.0% kRate, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.71 ERA across 51.0 IP. He does draw a nice match-up against a well-below-average Marlins offense that has a 77 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month (3rd lowest). There are quite a few ways for Grove to return value on his stone minimum $4,000 pitcher salary and, if he does happen to get through five full innings, he may have a shot at earning his first career win as the Dodgers are still strong -165 favorites.

Also Consider:

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

Across his last five starts, MadBum has allowed at least four earned runs in each game while amassing an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. Every single one of his statcast figures from the last month is in the red… which is bad for Bumgarner, and good for his opposition. Most notably over the last month, he is allowing a 29.1% LineDrive%, an average distance of 203.4 feet, and creating only a 12.7% SoftContact%. The D-Backs bullpen has not been playing well whatsoever either. In the last two weeks, the Arizona pen has accounted for an MLB-worst 7.34 ERA alongside a 4.81 xFIP and 1.57 WHIP. The Phillies rank 4th with a 140 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite PHI Bats: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins | Sneaky Bat: Alec Bohm (10% pOwn%)

Note: This PHI lineup is not confirmed.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (SP TBD)

No official starter has been announced for the Pirates but the two most likely options look to be RHP Jerad Eickhoff or RHP Robert Stephenson. Either guy would represent a great match-up for a Brewers offense that can attack right-handed pitching pretty well (108 wRC+ over the last month, ranks 7th). If either Eickhoff or Stephenson’s time on the mound is cut short, the Brewers will face some relief arms out of a bottom 10 ranked Pirates bullpen.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong | Sneaky Bat: Hunter Renfroe (10% pOwn%)

DraftKings Main Slate Only:

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

(DraftKings Main Slate Only)

Miami Marlins vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

If it were just about any other offense, people would be chomping at the bit to load up bats against an inexperienced pitcher like Michael Grove. While Grove does have some decent minor league numbers, some figures do stand out in a bad way like his 4.81 xFIP and 1.41 HR/9 Rate. I’m sure the Dodgers won’t hesitate to pull Grove off the mound at the first sign of significant trouble and then turn to their elite bullpen, but we could see some value come from some mini two or three-man Marlins stacks tonight.

LAD Bullpen Rating: 9/10

Favorite MIA Bats: Joey Wendle, Jon Berti, JJ Bleday | Sneaky Bat: Jacob Stallings (7% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF George Springer | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

C JT Realmuto | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

*3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: N/A | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

*1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. PIT Pirates (SP TBD)

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

*3B/OF Brendan Donovan | DK: $3.2k, FD: N/A | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. PIT Pirates (SP TBD)

*OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $3k, FD: N/A | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

*OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.8k, FD: N/A | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

*OF TJ Friedl | DK: $2.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Nick Gordon | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Corbin Carroll | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: N/A | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), CIN

St. Louis hitters will look to tee off in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark today. Expected Reds starter, Chase Anderson, will be making his first MLB appearance of the season. He’s not exactly tearing it up in the minor leagues and he has given up quite a few home runs with a 1.81 HR/9 Rate. Going back to the start of the 2020 season, Anderson has faced 196 RHBs at the MLB level. In that time, he has allowed a huge .333 AVG, .424 wOBA, and 2.60 HR/9. Arenado has been crushing right-handed pitching over the last month: .362 AVG, .483 wOBA, .362 ISO, 219 wRC+, with six home runs. There are multiple Cardinals home run candidates to take a shot on today but ‘Nado stands out as the most likely option today (though, Paul Goldschmidt is not far behind).

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

JT Realmuto OVER 0.5 RBI | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the stack section above, Madison Bumgarner has been on a major skid lately with a 7.71 ERA over his last five starts. And the D-Backs bullpen has not been much better given their 7.34 ERA in the last two weeks. Realmuto is hitting .320 over his last 20 games and has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last eight games. The Phillies should be getting quite a few runners on base this evening and Realmuto should either be hitting 4th or 5th in the lineup, giving him a great chance to see multiple RBI opportunities.

Frankie Montas OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -155 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

This is a touch risky just because Montas hasn’t settled in with his new team yet but his last outing against the Mets was encouraging (5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 6 K). Montas has racked up 14 strikeouts across 7.2 innings of work against this Angels lineup this season and he’s always pitched well in Angel Stadium. On top of this, the Angels possess an MLB-high 27.5% kRate vs. RHPs in the last two weeks. Let’s look for Montas to rack up at least six strikeouts in this game tonight!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!