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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A new week of MLB DFS gets rolling with a hefty 12-game Monday slate! For a slate of this size, I wouldn’t say the overall selection of pitchers is outstanding, but we’ve got some worthy options to work with. Coors Field is also back in play with a high 12.5-run over/under, however, the visiting Braves are being pinned with the steepest DFS salaries we’ve seen this season (Acuña is $7k on DK!), so it’ll be interesting to see how the ownership shakes out there. There are plenty of promising non-Coors stacks to select from as well with several teams being pinned with high expectations. Eleven non-Coors offenses currently own at least a 4.7 implied run total and a few of those teams will surely flirt with, or push into, double-digit runs scored. As a cherry on top of this slate, there will be little-to-no weather issues to worry about. It’s a great day for a takedown so let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS @ BAL (7:05 ET): Low-end chance of a delay with some rain expected in the general area.

• MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET): Lighter 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from right at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• ATL @ COL (8:40 ET): The best chance for a delay will come here at Coors Field with some isolated storms in the forecast. Things could end up playing without any delays or interruptions, but bats should be fine regardless.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $11.2k, FD: $10.9k | vs. WAS

Gausman will top the salary pecking order on both sites today but he lands in a fairly strong spot at home where the Blue Jays will be hefty -260 ML favorites over the Nats. Gausman’s strikeout rate has elevated to an elite 34.3% kRate at home this season, compared to a 29.1% kRate on the road. He has also possessed one of the strongest floors of any MLB pitcher, scoring at least 17.5 DKFP/30 FDFP in 20-of-25 starts this season.

The Nats have been finding ways to stack up wins over the last several weeks but there is no mistaking their offense as any sort of juggernaut. They check in with an 84 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks, which ranks them 27th in the MLB. Their 21.6% kRate in that span is not overly high but there are four batters in the projected lineup that own at least a 28.8% kRate vs. RHPs this season, so there are some spots in the order where Gausman can rack up the Ks. We can expect Gausman to continue providing a strong floor in what is a plus match-up and he’ll have an outside chance at a ceiling performance as well.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CWS

Baltimore’s highly touted rookie right-hander has had his fair share of struggles this season, pitching to a 5.38 ERA in 17 big league starts. However, Rodriguez has been finding a nice groove more recently -- over his last six starts (36.2 IP), he has procured a very respectable 2.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .197 opp AVG, and 22.0% kRate.

The visiting White Sox have been a perennial bottom-10 offense this season and this may not be a great pitching match-up for them. Against Rodriguez’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer (47.1%), changeup (22.3%), and slider (16.3%), the White Sox rate out with the third-lowest xwOBA (.308) and the eighth-highest kRate (25.2%). The White Sox offense has benefited from facing some poor pitching staffs recently, with two of their last three series coming against the A’s at home and the Rockies in Coors Field. However, Rodriguez looks like he has figured some things out and Oriole Park has somewhat surprisingly rated out as a top-10 pitcher’s park this season. Rodriguez has pitched at least 6.0 innings in four of his last six starts (and 5.2 IP in the remaining two games) so I like his chances of delivering a quality start (6.0+ IP & ≤ 3 ER) with a great shot at a win as well (BAL: -260 ML odds). He sets up as one of the better SP options out of a lackluster mid-range.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CIN

The risk is sizable here, but if you’re hunting for a cheap GPP SP play with strikeout upside, Kyle Harrison fits the bill. This will be just his second career MLB start after debuting against the Phillies last Tuesday but he’s a high-pedigree southpaw who ranks as the top prospect in the Giants’ farm system and a top 20 overall prospect in the MLB by both FanGraphs (No. 17) and MLB.com (No. 20). Harrison posted a massive 35.6% kRate (14.4 K/9) in 20 Triple-A starts this year, however, walks were an issue (16.3% BB%, 6.6 BB/9) and he put up a lackluster 4.66 ERA and 5.05 xFIP. His ability to pitch deep into games is another big concern since, in those 20 AAA starts, he went just 65.2 IP and in his MLB debut, he worked through only 3.1 innings on 65 pitches. Still, his five strikeouts of the Phillies represented a 31.3% kRate so it’s nice to know his “stuff” can fool big-league hitters.

The Reds have been a subpar offense against LHPs over the last month based on their 86 wRC+ in that span (ranks 20th) and they’ve struck out at a 25.3% clip (9th highest). Oracle Park has also been the #4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season. Getting through six, or even five, innings might be a tall order for Harrison and the Giants have every reason to be conservative with their prized prospect’s workload. With that said, Harrison’s main draw is the amount of strikeout potential he possesses at a cheap price. Once again, it’s risky, but he’s one of the few intriguing cheap SP options on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.2k | @ STL

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | @ SF

Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.9k | vs. CLE

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.8k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

Non-Coors Stacks

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

+ Mariners: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-9th among non-Coors teams… and should probably be higher).

+ Muller has been awful this season but he has taken it to another level when pitching on the road where he has posted a 10.41 ERA, 6.08 xFIP, 2.14 WHIP, .357 opp AVG, .435 opp wOBA, 2.31 HR/9, and 13.3% kRate.

+ The Mariners have simply been putting up video game-like numbers on offense -- against LHPs over the last two weeks (128 PA), they’ve racked up a .376 AVG, 1.052 OPS, .450 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 198 wRC+!

+ The A’s bullpen continues to be one of the worst in the MLB -- over the last month, they rank dead last with a 5.12 xFIP.

- T-Mobile Park has ranked as the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Dylan Moore/Jose Caballero/Josh Rojas (Whoever happens to land in the starting lineup)

Boston Red Sox vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

+ Red Sox: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Javier still hasn’t regained any significant form recently and over his last 10 starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA, 6.63 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, .270 opp AVG, .381 opp wOBA, 17.8% kRate, and 2.10 HR/9.

+ Javier averaged -36.8% less FPPG on the road.

+ Javier L30Days: 212.6 feet average distance on batted balls (bottom 5th percentile).

+ The Red Sox have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs over the last two weeks (428 PA): .308 AVG (1st), .889 OPS (3rd), .380 wOBA (3rd), .210 ISO (4th), 138 wRC+ (4th), and 18.5% kRate (4th lowest).

+ Fenway Park has ranked as the #2 hitter’s park this season -- Red Sox average 5.32 runs/gm at home (vs. 4.66 runs/gm on the road).

+ Every Red Sox hitter is projected for under 10% ownership.

- The Astros have had an above-average bullpen over the last month.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo

Bargain Bat: Connor Wong

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

+ Orioles: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ 8-of-9 Orioles hitters has a ≤ 6% pOwn%.

+ Kopech’s last 10 starts have produced some ugly results: 6.86 ERA, 7.25 xFIP (!), 1.90 WHIP, .403 opp wOBA, 16.3% kRate, and 2.80 HR/9.

+ Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Orioles rank top 10 in AVG, OPS, and wRC+.

+ The White Sox bullpen has ranked bottom-10 over the last month: 5.33 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 1.56 HR/9.

- Oriole Park has ranked as the #11 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the O’s offense has been less impressive at home where they average 4.54 runs/gm (vs. 5.31 runs/gm away).

Favorite BAL Bats: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), BOS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

2B/3B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Adam Duvall, BOS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Jorge Polanco, MIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

C Gary Sanchez, SD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

OF Kevin Pillar, ATL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF/SS Dylan Moore, SEA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

1B Garrett Cooper, SD | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

2B/SS Jose Caballero, SEA | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kyle Muller (LHP), OAK

1B Rowdy Tellez, MIL | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Adam Duvall MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Julio Rodriguez MORE than 0.5 Runs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!