Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/26 | Barreling Up Friday's Behemoth Baseball Slate!

August 26, 2022

Will the Nationals offense be chalk today? Can we trust Spencer Strider to show off his high strikeout potential against a hot Cardinals offense? Let's try to find out the answer to those questions and more below!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

What a tremendous slate we have today! It’s a big slate, absolutely yuuuuge, with a lot of potential. Absolutely. Many people are saying this, I’ve heard. Big slate, big money.

No time to waste, let’s get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

As far as 14-game slates go, there are not many weather concerns to worry about. However, there is one potential big trouble spot to keep an eye on (TB @ BOS).

TB @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): It appears that a delay will be a strong likelihood here with upwards of 50% rainstorm coverage that spans much of the evening. High delay risk with moderate PPD risk. Perhaps the forecast improves closer to lock but with 13 other games on the schedule, I won’t be mentioning any players from this particular game.

COL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Some afternoon rain may linger into the early window of this game but things look all clear after that. So, there is potential for a late start and that’s about it. Winds will also be blowing OUT to center at 5-10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | @ STL

Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. It’s what we want from our DFS pitchers and no other pitcher in the MLB (min. 80 IP) has a higher K/9 or kRate than Strider (13.50 K/9, 37.3% kRate). The glaring issue with Strider today is his match-up with a red-hot St. Louis offense that doesn’t strike out too often. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, STL has a 154 wRC+ (ranks 2nd) and only a 17.6% kRate (2nd lowest). However, when Strider faced the Cardinals back in early July, he racked up a dozen strikeouts across six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and two walks. That will be a tough performance to replicate but it’s well within the range of outcomes for Strider this evening.

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.8k | @ MIL

The only thing I’m not loving about Steele today is that he’s pitching against Milwaukee for the second time in five days. But few match-ups have been more favorable for a southpaw pitcher than Milwaukee. Against LHPs in the last two weeks (185 plate appearances), the Brewers have a measly .175 AVG, 60 wRC+, and a huge 34.1% kRate. Steele was responsible for some of the Brewers' lefty struggles when he tossed six scoreless innings against them on Sunday, allowing two hits, one walk, and recording nine strikeouts -- a performance that earned him 29.7 DKFP/49 FDFP. Steele has been finding plenty of success as of late, albeit in softer match-ups, but he does stand out as a strong SP2 option on DraftKings and a quality GPP pivot off of higher-owned guys like Cole and Bassitt on FanDuel.

Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN

The Nationals' top pitching prospect and the No. 58 overall ranked prospect in baseball (per MLB.com), Cade Cavalli, is set to make his major league debut today. It’s certainly not the worst spot for a young rookie to make his debut as the Reds have struggled all season at the plate, particularly on the road outside the confines of the very hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Against RHPs on the road, the Reds have a .224 AVG, .276 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and 23.5% kRate. Cavalli has fairly impressive 97.0 IP in Triple-A this season: 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .212 AVG, 0.28 HR/9, and a 25.9% kRate. And Cavalli has reportedly been much more dominant in recent weeks. I probably wouldn’t recommend going to Cavalli on FanDuel but, at only $5,000, he will make an interesting SP2 flier in DraftKings GPPs.

Also Consider:

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11k | @ OAK

Chris Bassitt (RHP), NYM | DK: $9,9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. COL

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CHC

Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

The Phillies have been a solid team to stack this week, scoring 6.2 runs/gm over their last five games while ranking third in the MLB in that span with a 144 wRC+. But you can probably guess why they’re getting highlighted once again today -- for the first time since June 25th, Bryce Harper will be in the lineup following his stint on the 60-day IL with a fractured thumb. Harper was hitting .318 with a .413 wOBA, .281 ISO, and 167 wRC+ in 64 games before the thumb injury. And he may pick up right back where he left off if his two rehab starts were any indication (he went 5-for-8 with two HRs and two doubles). It’s a huge addition to a Phillies offense that was already heating up. They should find some further success against a lackluster starter in RHP Bryse Wilson (5.74 ERA, 4.49 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP) and a bottom 10 ranked Pirates bullpen.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite PHI Bats: Bryse Harper, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto | Sneaky Bat: Bryson Stott (2% pOwn%)

New York Yankees vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

We can feel a bit more confident in a Yankees stack now that they’re essentially back to full health with the exception of Matt Carpenter. Giancarlo Stanton made his return to the lineup yesterday which is obviously a major boost to an offense that struggled for much of this month. Despite their lack of consistent offense in the month of August, they still did very well against lefty pitching. Their .361 wOBA and 140 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month rank 4th and 3rd, respectively. They’ll get to go up against a rookie LHP JP Sears, tonight. Sears has posted an impressive 1.93 ERA across his 37.1 IP this season but his 4.42 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA would suggest that some significant regression is due. The Yankees scouting report on Sears should also be as good as it gets considering he was on the team earlier this season before being sent away as a part of the Frankie Montas trade. Oakland also has a poor bullpen that accounted for five of the Yankees’ 13 runs and 13 of their 20 hits last night.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres | Sneaky Bat: Jose Trevino (<1% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

I should possibly flip the Nationals stack with the Yankees stack because Washington’s ownership has been climbing today while the NYY hitters all look to check in at single-digit ownership. I’ll leave things as is for now but it is pretty clear why the Nationals should draw some consideration today and it has everything to do with the pitching match-up. LHP Mike Minor has been a match-up to exploit all season. He checks in with a slate-worst 6.44 ERA and 5.22 xFIP to go with a high 1.61 WHIP and .388 opp wOBA. No need to go too crazy loading up on Nats bats, because they’re not exactly a good offense, especially against lefties. But they are all cheap and carry some strong fantasy value potential today.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite WAS Bats: Joey Meneses, Nelson Cruz, Lane Thomas | Sneaky Bat: Keibert Ruiz (11% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), STL

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

C Alejandro Kirk | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Joey Meneses | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

SS Bryson Stott | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), STL

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

2B/OF Romy Gonzalez | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Joey Meneses | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mike Minor (LHP), CIN

This kid made quite the splash, hitting a home run in his MLB debut and five HRs within his first nine career games. He has cooled off a bit recently, though he did go yard in Seattle two days ago. And while it is a small sample size, he has obliterated lefty pitching -- in 27 at-bats against LHPs, Meneses has a .407 AVG, .519 wOBA, .370 ISO, and 238 wRC+ with three home runs. Against RHBs, Mike Minor has given up 2.41 HR/9 this year to go along with an awful 7.22 ERA, .420 wOBA, and .284 ISO. Meneses could be due for home run No. 7 in his 20th career game tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Joe Musgrove OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -134 (PointsBet) | 2.5 Units

Musgrove hasn’t been consistently on top of his game in the last few weeks but this is still a strikeout prop that he should be able to hit the over on against a young Royals squad. Musgrove has recorded at least six strikeouts in 15 of his 22 starts this season and the Royals have the fifth-highest kRate against RHPs over the last month at 24.9%. Musgrove should have 6+ Ks in his bag today.

Friday Frenzy Home Run Prop Parlay

Bryce Harper, Joey Meneses, & Alex Bregman ALL to Hit an HR | +5300 | 0.5 Units

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!