Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/25 | Slicing & Dicing Today's Six-Game Slate

August 25, 2022

Small slate, large expectations. We look ahead at some strong plays and pivots for this six-game slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

There is not a lot of meat on this Thursday’s main slate, with only six games landing on the docket. It’s also a deGrom day and he’s at home facing a middling offense, so the decision to eat the major chalk must be made there. Overall, it’s not a bad little slate to build some lineups for so let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No delay/PPD worries on this slate!

CWS @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Light winds blowing OUT to left around 7 mph.

COL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Near 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12.5k | vs. COL

Recommending deGrom is about as obvious as saying “play Coors Field bats” but I figured I’d talk about him briefly. First off, even at his lofty DFS salaries, you can guarantee that he will be anywhere from 60% to 80% owned in GPPs. However, he scored 35+ DKFP/53+ FDFP in both of his home starts while registering double-digit strikeouts, and that was only on 76 pitches each game. He was given some additional rest after reaching a season-high 95 pitches in his last outing a week ago, where he didn’t dominate in a deGrom-like fashion (@ ATL: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 9 K). But it’s a strong spot for a bounce-back performance against the Rockies outside of Coors Field where they have a 74 wRC+ against RHPs this season (ranks 28th). Finally, the Mets are absurd -450 favorites today.

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ BOS

Gausman has been a complete menace to this Red Sox offense this season. In four starts (26.0 IP) against Boston, Gausman has come away with a 1.38 ERA, 1.63 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, and a 37.4% kRate. He’s had a couple of down games in the last month but he has also been exceptional when pitching on the road this year where, in 71.0 IP, he has a 1.65 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, and 29.1% kRate. The Red Sox have been a below-average offense against RHPs with an 88 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks, and they’ve shown no ability to do too much damage against Gausman all season. He’ll make for either a strong pivot away from chalk deGrom or a premium SP2 option to pair alongside deGrom on DraftKings.

Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

It’s hard to imagine going here on FanDuel when you could just roll out one of the three stud pitchers (deGrom, Gausman, Nola), but Lyles does have some SP2 appeal on DraftKings. Lyles has a respectable 3.13 ERA at home this season. He has also had more success against RHBs this season, allowing a .335 wOBA and .131 ISO to that side of the plate as opposed to a .369 wOBA and .232 ISO to LHBs. The White Sox have seven RHBs in their starting lineup today and they’ve been a below-average offense when facing RHPs on the road over the last month: .241 AVG, .286 wOBA, 86 wRC+, 24.2% kRate. It’s not a safe pick but Lyles could deliver a 20-ish DKFP performance today.

Also Consider:

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

The Phillies find themselves in another advantageous spot against a low-quality Reds starter. Justin Dunn has only started three games (13.1 IP) this year, so it’s a small sample size, but in that time he has come away with a 6.08 ERA, 6.06 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and has already surrendered five home runs (3.38 HR/9 Rate) on a slate-worst 52.4% HardHit%. The Reds bullpen has been holding their own in recent weeks (3.22 xFIP L2Wks, ranks 4th) but that won’t lead to much of a downgrade to the Phillies stack potential today.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott | Sneaky Bat: Jean Segura (19% pOwn%)

New York Mets vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

If the Mets cannot provide deGrom with some solid run support today, they should be ashamed of themselves. It’s not as if they’ve been bad, particularly against RHPs (.330 wOBA, 116 wRC+ L2Wks, ranks 5th), but in deGrom’s four starts this season, they’ve scored a combined nine runs (2.25 runs/gm). Feltner brings a below-average 5.88 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, and 1.39 WHIP to Citi Field today, and he’s pitched a bit worse on the road this year than he has at Coors Field. Facing a bad Rockies bullpen is also a plus to any opposing offense.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite NYM Bats: Starling Marte, Daniel Vogelbach, Jeff McNeil | Sneaky Bat: Tyler Naquin (4% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

We’ll go hunting for a little small slate leverage today since Lance Lynn is looking to be a somewhat popular option for people not spending up at pitcher (mostly on DK where Lynn has a 19% pOwn%). Lynn has shown some struggles when pitching on the road this season where, in 31.0 IP, he has a 6.39 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .369 opp wOBA, and a 2.03 HR/9 Rate. The White Sox relievers have also accounted for a 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last two weeks. Baltimore has been an above-average offense against RHPs all season and, even on a small slate, none of the O’s bats are expected to exceed 10% ownership.

CWS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo | Sneaky Bat: Kyle Stowers (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.8k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chris Archer (RHP), MIN

C Adley Rutschman | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Jean Segura | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

SS Bryson Stott | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), CIN

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

C Shea Langeliers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. TBA, NYY

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Kyle Stowers | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

Mullins vs. RHPs (Last 20 Games): .359 AVG, .425 wOBA, .268 ISO, 174 wRC+, and three HRs.

Lance Lynn vs. LHBs on the road: 4.48 xFIP, .322 AVG, .402 wOBA, 2.75 HR/9 Rate

There might be better pitchers to target when home run hunting today, but Lynn has clearly had some issues when pitching on the road against lefty hitters this season. So, Mullins will be the HR call today! After a Bregs bomb on Tuesday and a Realmuto blast last night, it’s on Mullins to get me to three correct HR calls in a row! Let’s go Ced!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Just rolling out one prop in this section today:

Kevin Gausman OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -150 (BetMGM) | 2.5 Units

Gausman has posted a monster 37.4% kRate versus these Red Sox in four previous starts against them this season. His strikeout totals in those four games: 8 K, 9 K, 10 K, and 10 K. The Red Sox are not necessarily a strikeout-prone offense, but Gausman has had their number this season and I love his chances to rack up *at least( six Ks today.

I'm also not totally against putting a small half-unit wager on the Colorado Rockies +335 moneyline odds. It wouldn't be betting against deGrom... it'd be betting with the trend of the Mets offense not supplying quality run support for deGrom.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!