Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/25 | Lighting Up Some Fireworks on Friday's 12-Game Slate! 💥

Friday MLB Cheatsheet

Author

Ryan Humphries
August 25, 2023

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll have another go at a huge Friday MLB slate with a dozen games on the docket today! Pitching looks strong with viable options at each salary tier and we’ll have a huge amount of worthy stack options. Not much else to expand on before we dive in so let’s get down to business! Best of luck!

Also, for any football fans, here’s a reminder that we have live-action college football kicking off starting tomorrow! I know most of you are big on the NFL, which is also right around the corner, but I recommend giving CFB DFS a shot as well! There’s a huge edge to be had in CFB DFS and LineStar will have ya covered with top-tier data and info all season long. A newsletter for tomorrow’s college football slate will be posted later today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • CHC @ PIT (7:05 ET): Warm/humid with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to right/center.

  • COL @ BAL (7:05 ET): Low-ish chance for a delay with a bit of rain in the forecast but nothing that would be enough to cause a washout. Some risk is added onto starting pitchers.

  • STL @ PHI (7:05 ET): Similar outlook as BAL. Low-end chance for a delay so we’ll likely want to check the forecast closer to first pitch if we’re rostering any pitchers from these two games.

  • LAD @ BOS (7:10 ET): The highest risk of some sort of delay will come here in Boston where some scattered storms may be in the area this evening. They may end up dodging trouble altogether but, as usual, a pre-game radar check is recommended. Winds OUT to left at 10+ mph.

  • LAA @ NYM (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to left at 10+ mph. Mid-70s temps are still relatively cool for this time of year but those winds can help batters out a bit in what is a very pitcher-friendly ballpark.

  • TEX @ MIN (8:10 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to right at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.9k | vs. LAA

We’ll start by noting that Spencer Strider (DK: $12.8k, FD: $12k) is in a tier of his own and pulls an excellent match-up against a Giants team that he just pitched seven one-hit shutout innings against with 10 Ks last Friday.

If you’re looking for a high-end pitcher but don’t want to spend ALL the way up for Strider, then Senga could be a strong alternative. He’s been the one true bright spot on a bleak Mets team this season and he’s been fantastic at home where he has procured a 2.63 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, .184 opp AVG, and 29.7% kRate this season.

The spirit of this Angels team might be at a season-low at this point. Not only have they been skidding down the standings lately, now 10.5 games back from a wild card berth, but they were hit with two massive blows recently. It was announced that Shohei Ohtani has a torn UCL in his throwing arm and will no longer pitch for the remainder of this season. Mike Trout is also going back on the IL after playing just in one game following a lengthy injury absence. The Angels have not performed well whatsoever against RHPs over the last month, posting a meager .223 AVG (ranks 28th), .291 wOBA (28th), 82 wRC+ (28th), and a hefty 27.5% kRate (4th highest). It would seem as if this team is just going through the motions at this point and they’ll face a tough task going up against Senga in the very pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field.

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | vs. CLE

There are quite a few viable SP options out of the mid-range so we’re splitting hairs when deciding on just one guy to spotlight. Bassitt draws the honors today and he should provide some strong leverage given his 7% pOwn% on DraftKings and 2% pOwn% on FanDuel. Bassitt has been a completely different pitcher at home (+36.1% more FPPG) this season as you can gather from his drastic home/away splits listed below:

Home: 2.83 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .180 opp AVG, 0.59 HR/9, 25.6% kRate

Away: 5.02 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, .284 opp AVG, 2.15 HR/9, 19.6% kRate

Bassitt draws a promising match-up against a Guardians offense that has the fewest home runs and the third-fewest runs scored against RHPs this season. Bassitt has also pitched through at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and, while Cleveland is not an overly strikeout-heavy lineup, the Blue Jays righty should be able to offset some of that lack of strikeout upside with additional innings pitched against a below-average offense. Toronto is battling for a wild card berth, currently sitting 1.5 games back, so this team will look to get a leg up in this winnable series against a sputtering Guardians squad. Toronto is a solid -155 ML favorite and Bassitt should provide a decent floor in this match-up to go along with mid-20 DKFP/mid-40 FDFP upside.

Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL | DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. COL

Note: Remember to run a pre-game radar check here to make sure a mid-game delay isn’t a likelihood.

This play is more geared toward being a DraftKings SP2 dart throw but Irvin also makes sense in contrarian FanDuel builds if you really want to load up on a bunch of stud hitters. Irvin has been bouncing back and forth between the starting rotation and a bullpen role this season. This will be his third consecutive start following a pair of promising outings against the Mariners and A’s in his last two starts where he combined for 10.0 IP, allowing one run (0.90 ERA), six hits, and two walks (0.80 WHIP) while posting a solid 23.1% kRate. Irvin threw 67 pitches in his August 12th start and 77 pitches in his August 19th start. He has thrown as many as 101 pitches as a starter this season so we can probably assume that he should be inching closer to a typical starter’s workload -- however, we’ll stick with a conservative estimate of a low-to-mid-80s expected pitch count this evening.

Of course, the major appeal here will be taking on a floundering Rockies offense that will be playing away from Coors Field. The Rockies have 192 PA against LHPs on the road in the last month and the results are truly awful: .167 AVG, .495 OPS, .222 wOBA, .098 ISO, 34 wRC+, and 28.1% kRate. The Rockies also rank dead last in xwOBA this season against Irvin’s three primary pitches (4-seamer, changeup, and sinker). To top it all off, the Orioles step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with -225 ML odds. As long as the weather doesn’t get in the way by cutting Irvin’s start short, he’ll have an excellent chance at returning value today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12k | @ SF

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. OAK

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.8k | vs. KC

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.8k | @ TOR

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

+ Orioles: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland struggles more on the road away from Coors Field where he averages -64.9% less FPPG and has posted a 5.40 ERA, 5.71 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, .302 opp AVG, .367 opp wOBA, 1.90 HR/9, and a meager 8.4% kRate.

+ Freeland has some ugly statcast data over the last 30 days, ranking in the bottom 5th percentile in barreled balls allowed (11), bottom 10th percentile in average exit velo (92.1 mph), and bottom 10th percentile in average distance (203.6 feet).

+ The Orioles have been an above-average offense against LHPs L2Weeks: .286 AVG, .827 OPS, .350 wOBA, .203 ISO, and 124 wRC+.

+ The Orioles head in swinging some hot bats over the last week: .372 wOBA, .216 ISO, and 139 wRC+.

+ The Rockies have had arguably the worst bullpen in the MLB over the last month: 7.27 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, .290 opp AVG, 1.61 WHIP, 17.9% kRate, and 1.67 HR/9 -- expect a ton of balls in play for the O’s today.

- The Orioles have been less effective at home this season where they’re averaging 4.55 runs/gm (vs. 5.31 runs/gm on the road).

Favorite BAL Bats: Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander

Bargain Bat: Jorge Mateo

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

+ Phillies: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Mikolas has been riding some erratic form -- over his last six starts (30.2 IP), he has limped away with a 6.16 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, .301 opp AVG, 1.20 HR/9, 18.0% kRate, and has stranded just 59.4% of base runners.

+ Against RHPs over the last two weeks, the Phillies rank 5th in wOBA (.363), OPS (.853), and wRC+ (128) while ranking 1st in ISO (.233).

+ The Phillies have been more dangerous at home where they average 4.92 runs/gm (4.58 runs/gm away).

+ The Phillies head in as one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week: .969 OPS (2nd), .408 wOBA (2nd), .281 ISO (1st), and 158 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Every Phillies hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

-/+ The Cardinals bullpen has ranked mid-pack in most key metrics over the last month.

- If Mikolas bounces back into form, he is a guy who can pitch deep into this game while generating plenty of ground balls and low home run upside for the opposing offense.

Favorite PHI Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh/Jake Cave

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

+ Every Mariners hitter has a < 8% pOwn%.

+ Singer has been pitching quite well lately but he has shown some very poor road splits (-50.5% less FPPG) this season: 6.75 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .320 opp AVG, .371 opp wOBA, and 17.4% kRate.

+ Since August 15th (nine games) the Mariners have been on a massive offensive tear: .318 AVG, .956 OPS, .409 wOBA, .225 ISO, 170 wRC+, and they are averaging 7.2 runs/gm.

+ The Royals have possessed a bottom-five bullpen over the last month: 5.17 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.60 HR/9.

-/+ Mariners: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-13th on the slate).

- T-Mobile Park has ranked as the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Mariners are averaging 4.42 runs/gm at home (vs. 5.05 runs/gm away).

- As mentioned, Singer has been posting some solid performances lately, and spanning his last 10 starts, he has come away with some respectable results: 3.45 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, .238 opp AVG, and 0.70 HR/9.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Josh Rojas

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

2B Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Neal (RHP), OAK

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Tyler O’Neill, STL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Neal (RHP), OAK

1B/OF Connor Joe, PIT | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF/SS Jorge Mateo, BAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Noelvi Marte, CIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Jake Cave, PHI | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Cole Irvin + Sonny Gray LESS than 0.5 First Inning Runs Allowed

Bobby Witt Jr. + Julio Rodriguez MORE than 4.0 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Combo)

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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