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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to put on our small slate thinking caps with a narrow five-game main slate on tap this evening. It looks like a solid little slate with a few quality pitchers to choose from and plenty of offenses in strong spots. Four of five games will possess an over/under of at least nine runs and seven teams are being pinned with a 4.6+ implied run total. We’ll have to get a little creative today but let’s step up to the challenge! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CHC @ PIT (7:05 ET): Scattered storms are in the forecast so a delay is a possibility. The feeling is that bats should be fine but pitchers will have some added risk. We’ll need to check this game forecast ahead of first pitch to get a better idea of how things should play out.

• TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET): Some lighter scattered storms in the area. Chance for a delay but, at the moment, a PPD doesn’t seem likely. Winds OUT to left near 10 mph.

• OAK @ CWS (8:10 ET): Hot temps in the mid-90s to begin the game. Chance for some spotty storms in the later innings but they shouldn’t have major issues getting this game in. Indecisive 10+ mph winds blowing IN early, blowing OUT late.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.9k | vs. TEX

We’ve got a great pitcher in Lopez taking on a tough Rangers offense, so electing whether to roster him today will be a pivotal decision on this small slate. Lopez is riding some hot form, boasting a 0.83 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 28.5% kRate while averaging 27.1 DKFP/47.6 FDFP over his last five starts. Over the last month, he has also been limiting fly balls (28.9% FB%), opponent exit velocity (85.7 mph), and average opponent distance (145.2 feet).

The challenge for Lopez stems from this match-up against a Rangers offense that ranks third in the MLB versus RHPs in wOBA (.338) and wRC+ (116). However, Texas is in a bit of a quiet slump heading into this game. Over the last week against RHPs (177 plate appearances), they’re hitting just .201 with an MLB-worst 62 wRC+ in that span to go along with a huge 31.1% kRate. And, while they’re still up there as one of the better road offenses in the MLB, the Rangers do average nearly a run less per game on the road (5.10 runs/gm) than at home (6.09 runs/gm). So there are plenty of reasons to not be scared off of Lopez simply based on the match-up.

Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.7k | @ CWS

It’s an odd day when we’re spotlighting an Oakland A’s starter but Waldichuk has shown some positive signs as of late. Over his last five games (25.0 IP), Waldichuk has posted a respectable 3.24 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, .204 opp AVG, and a 27.1% kRate. Home runs have been a bit of an issue for Waldichuk this season (1.54 HR/9) but he has only given up a pair of homers in those previous five games and his only true bad outing in that five-game stretch came on the road against the Dodgers.

He’ll draw an excellent match-up against a White Sox team that has not fared well against lefties. Over the last month versus LHPs, the White Sox rank 25th with a 77 wRC+, and their 28.4% kRate has been the highest in the MLB in that span. Make no mistake, Waldichuk is far from a proven and safe DFS play. He has shown some major struggles on the road (-42.3% less FPPG) and the sportsbooks are pinning the White Sox with a slate-high 5.4 implied run. But rostering Waldichuk will provide some small slate leverage and free up some salary for bigger bats (and/or a high-end SP1 on DK) while having decent 20 DKFP/35 FDFP potential.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.4k | @ PIT

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Andre Jackson (RHP), PIT

Note: Jackson has not been confirmed as the PIT starter at the time of this writing.

UPDATE: LHP Rob Zastryzny will serve as the PIT opener. Jackson could still line up as the bulk reliever.

+ Cubs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Andre Jackson owns a slate-worst .362 opp xwOBA, 21.9% HR/FB Rate, 47.2% HardHit%, and 8.3% Barrel%.

+ Cubs vs. RHPs L30Days: 4th in AVG, 2nd in OPS, 2nd in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and 4th in wRC+.

+ The Cubs have played very well against the Pirates this season (six games), averaging 8.0 runs/gm while hitting .308 as a team alongside a .373 wOBA and 136 wRC+.

-/+ The Pirates have had a middling bullpen over the last month.

- The Cubs' offense has been less effective on the road, averaging 4.69 runs/gm away vs. 5.38 runs/gm at home.

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson

Bargain Bat: Seiya Suzuki

Oakland Athletics vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

+ Scholtens’ 5.07 xFIP is the worst mark among today’s starters.

+ Scholtens has displayed some very poor reverse splits vs. RHBs: .299 opp AVG, .368 opp wOBA, .197 opp ISO, 6.16 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, and 2.05 HR/9 Rate.

+ Based on their 99 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days, the A’s have been much closer to a league average offense in recent weeks, as opposed to the bottom-of-the-barrel offense that most believe them to be -- their .188 ISO against RHPs in that span also ranks 7th in the MLB.

+ There are plenty of cheap bats in the A’s lineup.

+ White Sox bullpen L30Days: 5.33 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.44 HR/9 Rate.

+ Guaranteed Rate Field has ranked as the #9 home run park this season.

-/+ A’s: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

- Scholtens, who has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this season, has posted three quality starts in three of his last four starts -- the lone exception was a recent start at Coors Field.

Favorite OAK Bats: Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, Ryan Noda

Bargain Bat: Seth Brown

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

+ Every Reds hitter has a ≤ 6% pOwn%.

+ A Reds stack provides strong leverage against a high-owned Merrill Kelly (39% pOwn% on DK, 35% pOwn% on FD).

+ Merrill Kelly: 8 barreled balls allowed L30Days (bottom 10th percentile).

+ If the Reds can knock Kelly off the mound early, they’ll see a D-Backs bullpen that has not been great over the last month: 5.24 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.44 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Reds are coming off of a strong three-game series against the Angels where they plated 20 runs (6.7 runs/gm) while accounting for a .352 wOBA and 114 wRC+.

- Reds: 4.1 implied runs (ranks T-8th on the slate).

- Kelly is a strong starter and the Reds have posted a poor 89 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month.

Favorite CIN Bats: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Rob Zastryzny (LHP), PIT

2B Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

C Adley Rustchman, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Tommy Pham, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Rob Zastryzny (LHP), PIT

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

SS Tim Anderson, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

2B/SS Elvis Andrus, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

1B Ryan Noda, OAK | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jesse Scholtens (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Pablo Lopez MORE than 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

Zack Gelof MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!