Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/24 | Finding Some Midweek Magic🔮

August 24, 2022

Wednesday's modest eight-game slate has a lot to offer!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Hump Day! A mid-sized mid-week main slate makes its way on the docket today with eight games on the board. Solid pitching, several offenses in favorable match-ups, what could go wrong? Seems like much of the LineStar fam had a great day of DFS on yesterday’s slate so let’s keep the hot streak rolling!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No weather issues to hit on today!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.2k | vs. LAA

McClanahan will check in with the highest projected ownership of any pitcher today but he’ll be some scary chalk to fade. Even with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani healthy, the match-up is a huge plus. The Angels have only a 70 wRC+, .216 AVG, and 25.5% kRate vs. LHPs over the last couple of weeks and one or two elite hitters can only do so much to buoy those sorts of bottom-of-the-barrel numbers. McClanahan (2.29 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 32.2% kRate) is also just an animal on the mound. He had a little post-All-Star break slump but he seems to be back on track after a solid outing against the Royals last Friday (7.0 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 8 K). The Rays (-265 ML) come into this slate as the heaviest favorites on the board and we could see McClanahan post one of his better all-around starts in several weeks.

 

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | @ KC

Here are the results from Gallen’s last three starts (vs. PIT, @ COL, @ SF): 21.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.58 xFIP, 0.56 WHIP, 36.6% kRate. To say he has been pitching lights out would be an understatement. Outside of the Coors Field factor in one of those games, has it been the most difficult three-game stretch? Of course not. But the Royals aren’t exactly an imposing offensive threat either. Kansas City has just a .221 AVG and 75 wRC+ against righties in the last two weeks, ranking them well inside the bottom 10 offenses in that span. We should be able to deploy Gallen with a good deal of confidence today.

Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k | @ CHC

Mikolas has posted six quality starts (6.0+ IP w/ 3 ER or fewer) within his last eight appearances. The two games where he didn’t qualify for a QS came on the road against the Reds at Great American Ballpark and the Rockies at Coors Field -- easily the two most hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB. So I’d say it would be fair to cut Mikolas some slack from those two games. Mikolas isn’t a huge strikeout guy (18.8% kRate) and is instead more of an innings eater who can limit the damage. However, he does have a strong 25.3% kRate in his three starts against the Cubbies this season. I’d feel better about Mikolas if he was pitching in his home ballpark but he should be able to find some success out at Wrigley Field today.

Also Consider:

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.7k | vs. MIN

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. TJ Zeuch (RHP), CIN

The two starts and eight innings pitched that TJ Zeuch has thrown in the 2022 season isn’t a fair sample size to judge him off of… but it hasn’t gone well (13.50 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 4 HRs allowed). Across his 57.0 IP at the MLB level, he’s come away with a 5.84 ERA, 5.34 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, and 2.05 HR/9 with just a 13.6% kRate. The Phillies get to see this guy’s pitches for the second time in eight days and they hung 11 hits (3 HRs) and 6 ER on him in four innings during the first meeting. The Phillies have been a top 10 offense against RHPs over the last month and they could easily get a nice lead early on today. The Reds bullpen has been pitching surprisingly well as of late (2.85 xFIP L2Wks, 2nd best in MLB) but they have pitched a lot of innings the last three days. It wouldn’t stop me from gaining exposure to the Phillies bats on this slate.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos | Sneaky Bat: Nick Maton (10% pOwn%)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

Following a doubleheader yesterday, Luke Farrell draws a spot start today. In his 87.2 IP in the MLB, Farrell has accrued a lackluster 4.93 ERA, 5.08 xFIP, and 1.46 WHIP. And he has mostly been used out of the bullpen, which makes those metrics look even worse. Farrell hasn’t thrown more than 2.1 innings or 38 pitches in any of his 20 appearances this season, so he shouldn’t make it too deep into this game. Expect the Cardinals to face a ton of relief pitching today. The Cubs bullpen has thrown by far the most innings in the last week (31.1 IP) and yesterday’s doubleheader certainly doesn’t help their situation. It may be another long day for the Cubs pitching staff as they attempt to hold down a red-hot Cardinals offense that leads the MLB by a wide margin with their .305 AVG, .394 wOBA, .232 ISO, and 159 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Update: No Goldy in the lineup today. Slight bummer but expectations remain high for the Cardinals bats.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar | Sneaky Bat: Brendan Donovan (2% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Giolito has not been pitching at an elite level this season. He still throws plenty of solid games, but he doesn’t seem to have the lockdown ace-caliber stuff that we’ve seen out of him in previous seasons. Over his last five starts, he’s returned with a 6.12 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that has a league-worst 7.09 ERA over the last two weeks. The Orioles offense has to be taken seriously at this point and they’ve dealt damage against some quality pitching recently. The O’s offense boasts a .371 wOBA and 149 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home over the last two weeks (161 PA sample size). I’d consider deploying some two, three, or four-man O’s stacks in GPPs today. Every Baltimore bat currently carries a single-digit ownership projection.

CWS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle | Sneaky Bat: Jorge Mateo (3% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. TJ Zeuch (RHP), CIN

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF George Springer | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $5.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

2B Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Mike Mayers (RHP), LAA

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/3B Donovan Solano | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

2B/OF Nick Maton | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. TJ Zeuch (RHP), CIN

OF Rob Refsnyder | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

1B Albert Pujols | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luke Farrell (RHP), CHC

OF Jackie Bradley Jr. | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C JT Realmuto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. TJ Zeuch (RHP), CIN

It’s been a dozen games since Realmuto last hit a home run but he has still been creating some great contact and barreling up plenty of baseballs. Zeuch is a great home run match-up for Realmuto since he pitches to contact and has racked up a lofty 2.25 HR/9 Rate to RHBs throughout his career in the majors. Realmuto has also been great in general against RHPs at home: .321 AVG, .380 wOBA, .209 ISO, 144 wRC+. His teammate, Kyle Schwarber, is the real strong bet to homer in this game but I’ll be rolling with Realmuto since Shannon laid claim to the Schwarbomb today!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run | +265 (FanDuel) | 1.0 Unit

Some days, a Schwarbomb just feels like it’s in the air. Today is one of those days. TJ Zeuch has been a gas can throughout his limited MLB career and has allowed a 2.05 HR/9 Rate in 57.0 IP. Schwarber’s 95.9 mph average exit velocity against RHPs in the last two weeks ranks him in the 95th percentile and he could potentially get three cracks at Zeuch today out of the lead-off spot.

 

Zac Gallen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed | +117 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Loving the under on this prop at plus money odds. Gallen is on a tear right now and he has managed to hold his opponents to four hits or fewer in six of his last seven outings. The Royals are hitting just .221 against RHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 21st) and Gallen will be one of the better righty starters they’ve gone up against in this stretch.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!