Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/23 | Previewing a Monster Tuesday Slate

August 23, 2022

A ton of baseball action is heading our way today so let's figure out some worthy DFS plays and prop bets to roll out!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a doozy of a slate heading our way with all 30 teams set to step foot on the mound this evening. Do note, as usual, FanDuel will not feature the evening doubleheader game (STL @ CHC) on their main slate schedule… so, sadly, no Albert Pujols dingers for FD players. Speaking of dingers, surely today’s games will provide far more offense than what we received on yesterday’s main slate, where no team scored more than four runs! With so much to get to, let’s lock it in and have a great Tuesday!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

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Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

The lone area of concern today will be out on Boston. Everywhere else looks pretty solid!

NYM @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few sparse rainstorms may be lingering during the early window in this game. They’re not likely to impact play but there is still some potential for a delay/late start. Light winds blowing OUT to center.

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): It’s looking a little dicey here with plenty of storm coverage moving through the Boston area this afternoon and into the evening. A delay/late start looks to be a fairly likely outcome here, and a PPD can’t be completely ruled out either. Let’s check here closer to first pitch to see how things are looking.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. WAS

Robbie Ray lands an enticing match-up at home this evening. When Ray is pitching on his home mound, that is usually where he tends to be a more reliable DFS target (+25% more FP at home). Here is a quick rundown on his home/road splits:

Home: 2.81 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, .197 opp AVG, 0.99 WHIP, 29.3% kRate, 1.01 HR/9

Road: 5.25 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, .262 opp AVG, 1.48 WHIP, 27.5% kRate, 2.04 HR/9

The Nats have been a little pesky and probably not as bad as people thought they would be in the post-Juan Soto era. However, their 83 wRC+ vs. LHPs in the last two weeks still ranks them at 22nd in the MLB and they’ve struck out 25.9% of the time in that stretch as well. We should feel pretty confident about rolling Ray out in lineups today.

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | @ PIT

By my count, there are seven “ace caliber” arms in action on this slate, so there is ample talent to choose from if you set the salary aside to spend up on pitching. Fried is the most affordable option among today’s aces, and he’ll draw an enticing match-up to boot. The Braves lefty may not be the huge strikeout artist some of these other guys are, with a just-above-average 22.9% kRate on the season. However, he did rack up eight strikeouts against this Pirates team when he faced them back in June and scored 26.7 DKFP/49 FDFP, so there’s plenty of upside to be had. The Pirates have a lofty 27.5% kRate vs. LHPs over the last month (4th highest) to go along with a subpar .294 wOBA (ranks 20th) and 88 wRC+ (21st). Fried almost always brings a strong floor to lineups, but perhaps he can push for a ceiling game this evening.

Austin Voth (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CWS

I wouldn’t say there are any “can’t miss” value pitchers on this slate, but Voth may be worth a look if you want to open up more salary for some big bats. He’s on a nice little run as of late. Across his last four starts (21.2 IP), Voth has maintained a strong 2.11 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .190 opp AVG, and 23.2% kRate. He also has a 30.8% kRate against righty hitters during that same four-game stretch, and the confirmed White Sox lineup features seven RHBs today. Not too shabby! Overall, the White Sox represents a pretty neutral match-up after accounting for precisely league average 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last couple of weeks while striking out at a 23.6% clip (11th highest). In that same span against RHPs when playing on the road, those numbers get even worse: 81 wRC+ & 26.2% kRate. If Voth continues trending in the right direction, it wouldn’t be a surprise to get around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of him this evening. Given his DFS salaries, that would make for some rock-solid value.

Also Consider:

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | @ DET

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | @ BAL

Corey Kluber (RHP), TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Texas Rangers vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Houston Astros vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), MIN

Given his not-necessarily-horrific 4.24 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA, Sanchez may not be pitching as bad as his slate-worst 7.68 ERA would indicate. He will still likely be someone to target given his slate-high 49.6% HardHit% allowed. He’s also showing some extremely rough reverse splits against RHBs, allowing a .495 wOBA, .276 ISO, 2.29 WHIP, and 2.65 HR/9 Rate to the right side of the plate. The Twins have a solid bullpen to back up Sanchez but they may not roll with their best relief arms if the Astros do manage to jump on the struggling righty in the early innings. With Justin Verlander on the mound opposite of Sanchez, the Astros pulling ahead with a sizable lead early on is a reasonable prediction.

MIN Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve | Sneaky Bat: Yuli Gurriel (7% pOwn%)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

Heasley has bounced back and forth from the minors and majors this season. Today’s game will mark his first taste of MLB action in a couple of weeks. He’s had a rough go at the big league level recently. Across his last five MLB starts (19.2 IP), Heasley has built up a shoddy 8.69 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.93 WHIP, 2.70 HR/9 Rate, with just a 14.3% kRate. The D-Backs get a ballpark bump going from Chase Field to Kauffman Stadium and they’ve also been sneaky good on the road lately. Their 114 wRC+ vs. RHPs on the road (L2Wks, 202 PA sample size) ranks 6th in the MLB, and they’ve only struck out 15.3% of the time (second-lowest). One of the worst bullpens in the league will be backing up Heasley so the D-Backs could be in for a strong night at the plate.

KC Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho | Sneaky Bat: Jake McCarthy (6% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

With 15 games on the slate, including a Coors Field match-up, you don’t have to go too contrarian to find a low-owned stack with some nice potential. Outside of Mitch Haniger (11% pOwn%), no other Mariners bat currently has over a 6% pOwn%. Seattle comes into this game with a 134 wRC+ over the past week, ranking second in the MLB. And while Erick Fedde has had his good moments this season, he’s had plenty of rough outings as well… especially when pitching on the road where he has posted an ugly 5.53 ERA, 5.32 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, and only a 13.3% kRate.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Mitch Haniger | Sneaky Bat: Jesse Winker (5% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), MIN

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

3B Ryan McMahon | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Alec Bohm | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYY

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Jake McCarthy | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), MIN

OF Leody Tavares | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

1B Albert Pujols | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Adrian Sampson (RHP), CHC

OF JJ Bleday | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), MIN

It’s been a hot month of August at the plate for Bregman. Since Aug. 1st, the Astros' third baseman has mashed for a .357 AVG, .472 wOBA, .329 ISO, 218 wRC+, and he has blasted five home runs. In eight home games this month, his average has rocketed up to .480 with a .587 wOBA, .400 ISO, and 300 wRC+! He’ll get a few cracks at RHP Aaron Sanchez today, who has posted some awful reverse splits this season. Sanchez is allowing a .495 wOBA, .276 ISO, 2.29 WHIP, and 2.65 HR/9 Rate to the right side of the plate. Bregman has a nice opportunity to hit another one over the fence this evening.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Max Fried to Record a Win: Yes | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Fried has covered at least five full frames in all 23 of his starts this season, and he has pitched at least six innings in 19 of those 23 starts. So, pitching the required five innings to qualify for the win is of no concern with Fried. The Braves offense will need to give him a lead, which is a solid likelihood against a good but not great starter in JT Brubaker (4.19 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP). Any lead Fried receives should be quite secure when he hands things over to a top-five-ranked Braves bullpen. Atlanta is the second-heaviest favorite of the day with -280 ML odds, so we can feel pretty comfortable going with Fried to record the win at near-even money odds.

Austin Voth OVER 3.5 Strikeouts | -137 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the DFS pitcher section above, Voth has been pitching well as of late, and he’s racked up at least five Ks in three of his last four outings. In his last four starts, he has a 30.8% kRate against righty hitters, and the confirmed White Sox lineup features seven RHBs today. Four-plus strikeouts will be extremely doable for Voth in this match-up.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!