Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/22 | Targeting Left-Handed Pitching on Monday's Slate!

August 22, 2022

A slew of southpaw pitchers are in play today. Some, we may want to roster; others, we may want to stack against!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone had an awesome weekend! We ease back into the MLB DFS grind with a solid eight-gamer on the docket for this evening. For no specific reason, I’m really liking how this slate is shaping up. I suppose that good feeling comes from having some reliable pitching options mixed with at least a handful of stack options that are in great spots. Let’s get it going!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No washouts are expected today but three game locations will be hoping to dodge some rain. All three games begin at 7:05 ET so we’ll get a more definitive outlook closer to first pitch.

NYM @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some evening precipitation brings some low-level risk for a delay at some point.

CIN @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Similar to New York in that they’ll be hoping to dodge some evening rain. It’s more likely that they play without any issues but some sort of delay can’t be ruled out.

ATL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Scattered rainstorms in the area. If one makes its way over the ballpark, they could get hit with a delay.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.4k | vs. MIL

How solid has Urias been lately? In his last six games (38.0 IP), he has maintained a floor of 21 DKFP/37 FDFP while accounting for a 0.95 ERA, 3.12 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, .214 opp wOBA, and 25.4% kRate. He is pitching against Milwaukee for the second time in seven days but he locked them down last Monday when he threw five scoreless four-hit innings and struck out six while earning 23.7 DKFP/39 FDFP. The Brewers have been terrible against left-handed pitching recently. In the last month vs. LHPs, they’re batting just .196 with a 73 wRC+ and an MLB-high 30.8% kRate. Urias isn’t the most prolific strikeout pitcher but he does have an above-average 24.4% kRate on the season and, given the match-up, this could be a night where he racks up 8-to-10 Ks when it is all said and done.

Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TEX

Gray has had some blowup games this year but he’s been dialing it in as of late. Over his previous five starts: 26.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 30.2% kRate. Gray has some wildly divergent home/road kRate splits. At home this season, he has racked up an impressive 28.4% kRate. On the road, that figure has plummeted to an 18.6% kRate. He’s pitching at home today, so perhaps we see that strikeout upside that he has been known for in the past. Gray did tie his season high with 10 strikeouts in his most recent start against the Royals. But his match-up today with the Texas Rangers is decent enough. Texas has a very middle-of-the-pack offense and they’ve posted a 99 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month which pretty much backs up that mediocrity. Their 23.5% kRate vs. RHPs in that same span ranks out as the 10th highest in the league.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | vs. LAA

Springs leads all pitchers on the slate with his 3.18 xFIP. He pairs that with a strong 2.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 26.5% kRate. The Rays usually limit Springs to around 80-85 pitches so, even though he doesn’t pitch as deep into games as most other starters, that is somewhat baked into his more affordable DFS salaries. He’ll face off with the Angels today. While this offense did get Mike Trout back, they’ll be without Shohei Ohtani (stomach virus) in today’s lineup. So, looking at this starting lineup for the Angels, Mike Trout and Luis Rengifo are really the only two guys Springs will have to be super cautious with.

Also Consider:

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.5k | @ NYY

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | @ OAK

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | @ CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

When you start looking at some statcast figures with this match-up, you can get the sense that things could potentially go south for Roansy Contreras in a hurry. Among today’s pitchers, Contreras has the highest HardHit% of 49.7% and the highest Barrel% of 11.7%. He’ll be up against a Braves lineup whose 43.1% HardHit% ranks 2nd in the MLB and they lead all teams with an 11.1% Barrel%. It’s certainly a strong spot to go hunting for some Braves homers. Behind Contreras will be a Pirates bullpen that has posted a league-worst 4.75 xFIP and 4.34 SIERA over the last two weeks.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr. Matt Olson, Vaughn Grissom | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II (11% pOwn%)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

The Cardinals simply have to fall on the stack radar when they’re up against a southpaw. They’re demolishing LHPs. Over the last two weeks against lefties (205 plate appearances), the Cardinals have racked up a .312 AVG with a massive .414 wOBA, .290 ISO, and 172 wRC+. Former gas can Drew Smyly (3.67 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP) has been fairly decent for much of this season but he is far from a premier starter. It may not be the juiciest match-up, but it is still a LHP match-up the Cardinals can take advantage of.

CHC Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Nolan Arenado | Sneaky Bat: Tyler O’Neill (9% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), LAA

You look at the Rays lineup and you don’t exactly get the urge to stack up this team. Randy Arozarena as a one-off target? For sure. But there often isn’t much stack appeal beyond one or two hitters. Perhaps today they’ll provide a little upside to lineups as they take on Tucker Davidson, who possesses a slate-worst 6.75 ERA, 6.19 xFIP, and 1.74 WHIP. The Rays have been a slightly above-average offense against southpaws with a 106 wRC+ vs. LHPs (L2Wks). They may also benefit from a bottom 10 ranked Angels bullpen.

LAA Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez | Sneaky Bat: Francisco Mejia (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

SS Trea Turner | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), LAA

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), ATL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/3B Jose Miranda | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

OF Mark Canha | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), PHI

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

C Shea Langeliers | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B Albert Pujols | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/3B Jose Miranda | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

Miranda has been a hit machine dating back to the start of July. He’s showing plenty of power in that stretch as well. Against LHPs (since July 1st), Miranda is hitting for a clean .300 AVG with a .420 wOBA, .380 ISO, and 183 wRC+. That’s a 50 at-bat sample size -- in those 50 at-bats, Miranda has blasted six home runs out of the ballpark. He’ll get at least a couple of cracks at rookie Cole Ragans today. Against RHBs, Ragans is allowing a .377 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 2.84 HR/9. The Twins have recognized how hot Miranda’s bat has been lately so they’ve often slotted him in as their clean-up hitter. Miranda finds himself hitting 4th once again today and he’ll be a strong candidate to go yard in this game.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Julio Urias to Record the Win: Yes | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I was mulling over possibly highlighting a Julio Urias strikeout prop (o7.5 Ks at +130 odds) but I feel more compelled to roll with Urias’ win prop. Urias has recorded the win in six consecutive games and has earned 10 wins in his last 11 starts. His counterpart, Eric Lauer, is no slouch but the Dodger bats should be able to put together some run support. And, beyond that, the Brewers have simply been so bad against LHPs (.196 AVG, 73 wRC+, and an MLB-high 30.8% kRate vs. LHPs over the last month), so we should look for Urias to cruise right along and post another winning performance tonight.

Vaughn Grissom OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +140 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

Grissom only has a dozen career MLB games under his belt but he has been raking to the tune of a .395 AVG, .478 wOBA, .279 ISO, and 209 wRC+. He has collected multiple bases in eight of his 12 games including seven games with multiple hits. Given the +140 odds, his o1.5 total bases prop is worth a look against Roansy Contreras, who allows a ton of hard-hit balls, and a bad Pirates bullpen.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!