Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/21 | Making Sense of a Chaotic Monday Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
August 21, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Top Daily Sportsbook/DFS Offers 8/21/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books, so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Our MLB Monday will once again feature an eight-game main slate ticket! It’s a bit of a peculiar slate with some interesting, perhaps even uncomfortable, decisions to be made with pitching and stack choices. But it’s far from the ugliest eight-game set we’ve seen this year. Let’s kick the week off with some profit, shall we? Best of luck!

Update: The CIN @ LAA game has been postponed due to heavy rains from Hurricane Hilary yesterday.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

STL @ PIT (7:05 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET): Hot, humid, and light ~5 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center. Solid hitting conditions.

SEA @ CWS (8:10 ET): Winds near 10 mph OUT to right.

CIN @ LAA (9:38 ET): Game has been POSTPONED due to heavy rains yesterday.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.7k | @ CWS

Castillo is the only ace-caliber pitcher on the slate so choosing to roster him or fade will be a pivotal decision for this slate. On the bright side, Castillo draws a plus match-up and owns a sharp 1.05 WHIP, 27.3% kRate, and 15.1% SwStr% on the season. He’s also backed up by a white-hot Mariners offense that has Seattle currently riding a six-game win streak. The downside will be the simple fact that he’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark -- Castillo has averaged -35.4% less FPPG in away games and has a fairly average 22.3% kRate on the road this season. But, based on raw upside, he’ll remain the most likely pitcher to land the highest DFS scores today.

The White Sox are coming off of a road series against the Rockies so the “Coors Field hangover” could certainly rear its head today. The White Sox also own an 83 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month, which ranks them 28th in the MLB. Castillo sticks to four primary pitches: 4-seamer (42.6%), slider (23.2%), sinker (17.9%), and changeup (16.3%). Against that four-pitch mix (from RHPs), the White Sox have posted a meager .299 wOBA (ranks 28th) and .309 xwOBA (ranks 29th). The Mariners (-190 ML) are hefty favorites today and, despite his road struggles, it wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see Castillo have a strong outing while pitching seven lockdown innings.

Allan Winans (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. NYM

Winans will surely be a polarizing DFS play today. He’s making just his third career MLB start but will be facing the same Mets team that he went up against on August 12th which resulted in a fantastic seven-inning performance, where he allowed zero runs on four hits while accruing nine strikeouts and 33.6 DKFP/58 FDFP. Through two MLB outings (11.1 IP), Winans owns an impressive 30.4% kRate paired with a 1.59 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, and 1.06 WHIP. Unfortunately, that’s not a sample size that we can put much stock in. Across 113.0 IP in Triple-A this season, Winans has posted a strong 2.79 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, and 1.03 WHIP but a much more subdued 22.7% kRate.

One important thing to note as well is that Winans' last start against the Mets came in game one of a doubleheader where New York opted to roll out a VERY scrubby lineup that did not include the majority of their usual starters. The Mets offense has also been solid against RHPs as of late, posting a 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (ranks 8th) to go along with a fairly low 20.8% kRate. With that said, I do believe Winans has a solid chance to put up a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) with a handful of strikeouts along with way. He’s also backed up by a potent Braves offense so Winans will technically be the heaviest favored starter on the slate (ATL: -220 ML odds). We can’t go in expecting a similar outcome as his last performance, but there is some moderate 20 DKFP/35 FDFP potential for Winans here.

 

Drew Rom (LHP), STL | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ PIT

Aw yeah, we’ve got another min-priced rookie starter lotto ticket to throw a dart with today. Drew Rom came over to St. Louis from Baltimore in the Jack Flaherty trade and he’ll receive his first career MLB start today. Rom doesn’t have outstanding numbers in Triple-A this season -- through 86.0 IP with Triple-A Norfolk (Orioles), he’s come away with a 5.34 ERA, 4.67 xFIP, and 1.70 WHIP… but he did post a solid 25.1% kRate. He has looked much more impressive in his two starts (11.0 IP) with Triple-A Memphis (Cardinals): 0.82 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 0.55 WHIP, and 43.9% kRate.

Rom will land in a pretty solid spot to make his big league debut. The Pirates have not fared well against lefty pitching in recent weeks -- against LHPs over the last month, Pittsburgh owns a paltry .204 AVG, .607 OPS, .272 wOBA, .108 ISO, and 67 wRC+ to go with a middling 22.9% kRate. The Cardinals will be slight -125 road favorites so if Rom can cover five-plus innings without surrendering too much damage, he should be in a strong position to earn a win. We’re mainly going here on DraftKings where we can slot Rom in at SP2 and either spend up on bats, a strong SP1, or both. There are 76 hitters who are more expensive than Rom on DraftKings so, even if he returns only around 12-15 DKFP, we’ll happily take that. There’s always some sizable risk with rookie pitchers who are making their MLB debuts, especially when it’s coming in a road game environment. But the salary that a $4k starting pitcher frees up also opens up a ton of high-upside lineup possibilities.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | @ ARI

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIA

Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

Update: Cecconi has been scratched and LHP Joe Mantiply will serve as the D-Backs’ opener. Unless he gets demoted before the game, Cecconi could still operate as the “bulk reliever” tonight so the Rangers’ stack shouldn’t be downgraded much, if at all.

+ Rangers: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ There is not much to gather from Cecconi’s 10.1 IP in three MLB appearances this season (3.48 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 15.9% kRate) but in a substantial 103.0 IP sample size in Triple-A this season, we see that he has posted some ugly results: 6.38 ERA, 5.52 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 2.01 HR/9 Rate.

+ Versus RHPs over the last month, the Rangers rank top 10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+.

+ The D-Backs’ bullpen owns an MLB-worst 6.16 ERA over the last month to go along with a 1.52 WHIP (2nd highest) and 1.69 HR/9 Rate (3rd highest).

+ Cecconi’s parents named him “Slade” so you have to question his upbringing.

- While they’re still a very potent offense, the Rangers have scored nearly a run less per game on the road (5.17 runs/gm) as opposed to at home (6.09 runs/gm).

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe

Bargain Bat: Mitch Garver

 

San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

Note: Weathers has not yet been confirmed as the Marlins’ starter today at the time of this writing, but it’s looking likely he will get the nod.

+ Padres: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

+ Weathers will face his former team, who should be familiar with his pitches, and he’s had a poor 2023 MLB campaign: 48.1 IP, 6.89 ERA, 5.47 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, 15.7% kRate, and 2.05 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Padres’ offense can be a bit of a headache, but they have excelled versus LHPs over the last month (220 plate appearances): .320 AVG (2nd), .880 OPS (5th), .379 wOBA (5th), 143 wRC+ (4th), and 17.1% kRate (3rd lowest).

-/+ The Marlins bullpen has ranked top-10 on the season but, over the last month, they have posted a fairly high 1.41 WHIP.

- Petco Park has been the #3 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres are averaging only 4.21 runs/gm at home this season.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim

Bargain Bat: Luis Campusano

Obligatory Braves Stack

Atlanta Braves vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

+ Braves: 5.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

+ Astros: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Every Astros hitter has a < 7% pOwn%.

+ Paxton averages -20.5% less FPPG on the road and ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in barreled balls allowed L30Days (8).

+ The Astros have been dominant against LHPs over the last month (317 plate appearances): .300 AVG (4th), .929 OPS (2nd), .395 wOBA (2nd), .250 ISO (1st), 157 wRC+ (2nd), and 18 HRs (1st).

+ The Astros may receive an offensive boost with OF Kyle Tucker (illness) trending toward returning from a brief three-game absence.

- The Astros have been less effective at home (4.53 runs/gm) than on the road (5.19 runs/gm).

- Based on their 3.98 xFIP, the Red Sox have had a top-10 bullpen over the last month.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick (+ Kyle Tucker if he plays)

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Joe Matinply (LHP) & Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

3B Rafael Devers, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP) & Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

2B/3B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Allan Winans (RHP), ATL

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Rom (LHP), STL

OF/SS Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Thomas Hatch (RHP) & Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

1B/C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Tyler O’Neill, STL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs.Thomas Hatch (RHP) & Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joe Matinply (LHP) & Slade Cecconi (RHP), ARI

SS Vaughn Grissom, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

2B/SS Dylan Moore, SEA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Luis Robert Jr. + Julio Rodriguez MORE than 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Combo)

Corey Seager MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

Represent the LineStar crew by using this as your DFS logo!

How did you feel about today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.