Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/2 | Trade Deadline Madness & deGrom is Back

August 02, 2022

We've got some head-spinning trades to take into account, and deGrom is back! BUT... do you play him in his first game of the 2022 season?

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

What a day for baseball! Trades are firing off left and right with the 6 pm ET deadline approaching, Jacob deGrom is set to make his 2022 MLB debut against the Nationals but with Juan Soto and Josh Bell being shipped to San Diego, he has somehow managed to match-up against another Triple-A team, and, what is more relevant to the reason you clicked on this newsletter… we have a gigantic 14-game main slate to break into! Note: The FanDuel main slate will consist of 13 games with the exclusion of game two of the COL @ SD doubleheader.

It’s ‘Takedown Tuesday’ so let’s do some printing!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Zero weather concerns today! With such a large slate on deck, that is good fortune right there.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.3k | @ PIT

First, let’s talk Jacob deGrom ($10.3k/$10.9k). Obviously, when he is fully stretched out, he’s the highest upside pitcher in the MLB. And he gets an absolute cake match-up against the Nationals who are now without their two best hitters (Soto, Bell). The only concern is clearly going to be his workload. He only threw 67 pitches in his most recent rehab start and this is a game the Mets should win easily so there’s no need to push his pitch count in his first MLB start of the year. With that said, he can still post an insane stat line even when limited to around 70 pitches so I wouldn’t rule him out for GPPs.

On the other hand, you know what to expect from Corbin Burnes. He has eclipsed 30 DKFP/50 FDFP with double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four starts. He faces a Pirates team that has struck out with an MLB-high 27.7% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month while hitting .215 with a 72 wRC+. Burnes also has a 1.57 ERA on the road this season and should have no problems posting up another excellent performance today. He’s easily the safest spend-up option on the board.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. PHI

Point blank: Strider’s DFS salaries are far too cheap given the strikeout upside he provides. His monstrous 37.2% kRate leads all MLB pitchers (min. 50 IP), and his 2.61 xFIP ranks 3rd behind only Shane McClanahan and Shohei Ohtani. The Braves do plan on monitoring his innings since Strider is not acclimated to the sort of innings workload he is handling this season but he has had a full week of rest and should be good for 90-100 pitches today. I never love it when a pitcher has to face the same opponent in back-to-back starts, but as long as Strider gets settled in early, he should be expected to replicate a similar performance to the one he had against the Phillies last Tuesday (6.0 IP, 90 PC, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 6 K, 1 Win -- 25.1 DKFP/43 FDFP) -- though, six strikeouts is a pretty low game total for him. All major sportsbooks have the O/U on his strikeouts at 7.5 Ks today.

Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CHC

Waino at home just tends to hit a little different. Here are his home/road splits this season…

Home: 58.1 IP, 2.01 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 22.0% kRate, 20.2 DKFP/gm

Away: 65.0 IP, 4.43 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 17.6% kRate, 12.9 DKFP/gm

This is setting up as a solid match-up for Wainwright as the Cubs have been cold at the plate recently. Over the last week, they have just a .244 wOBA, .091 ISO, 52 wRC+, alongside a 26.3% kRate. There’s also a decent chance that the Cubs move Willson Contreras and/or Ian Happ before today’s 6 pm ET trade deadline, which would weaken this lineup even further. Wainwright could very well continue his much improved play when he is on his home mound today.

Also Consider:

Jacob deGrom (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.9k | @ WAS

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. BOS

Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k | @ LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

The Brewers may be the last team any right-hander would want to face right now. In the last 14 days against RHPs, the Brew Crew leads all of baseball with a .321 AVG, .417 wOBA, .273 ISO, and 171 wRC+. Bryse Wilson (6.31 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP) is one of the lowest quality starters on the slate and he’s giving up a huge 44.5% HardHit%. This is a great spot for the Brewers to rack up some offense early and often.

PIT Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong | Sneaky Bat: Hunter Renfroe (3% pOwn%)

New York Mets vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

After knocking around the awful Patrick Corbin yesterday, the Mets draw another cake match-up today against Cory Abbott and the Nats bullpen. Abbott has made just three relief appearances this season and has just one career start. In 21.1 IP in his MLB career, Abbott has accumulated a poor 5.91 ERA, 5.81 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and 38.2% HardHit%. Abbott likely doesn’t pitch more than two or three innings and the Nationals bullpen ranks pretty firmly inside the bottom 10 bullpens in the MLB. It’s going to be a tough spot for the Mets bats to fail in today.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte | Sneaky Bat: Daniel Vogelbach (6% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

It’s pretty odd to place the Dodgers in this section but most, if not all, of the Dodgers bats could check in at well under 10% ownership on this slate. Alex Wood is no pushover but the Dodgers have found plenty of success against him in the past. In 101 PA vs. Wood, the Dodgers are hitting .300 with a .406 wOBA and .278 ISO. The Dodgers also have a huge 145 wRC+ vs. all LHPs in the last month. Behind Wood will be a Giants bullpen that has had some major issues lately. In the last two weeks, San Francisco’s relievers have combined for a 6.69 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, and 1.60 WHIP.

SF Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Will Smith | Sneaky Bat: Freddie Freeman (1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Nick Nelson (RHP), PHI

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

C Salvador Perez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

2B Jorge Polanco | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

3B Jose Miranda | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

2B/SS Luis Rengifo | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Salvador Perez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Gentle reminder that Sal Perez tied Vlad Guerrero Jr. with 48 home runs to lead the MLB in 2021. Following a 32-game absence due to having thumb surgery, Perez has homered in three of four games since his return. Lucas Giolito has not been pitching at the level we’re used to seeing out of him this season so it’s not necessarily a bad match-up. In fact, against RHBs, he is allowing a 2.17 HR/9 Rate and a 19.4% HR/FB Rate. Perez has a 48.7% Flyball Rate against RHPs this season so if he gets one up in the air against Giolito, it’ll have a strong chance to sail over the fence.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Kolten Wong OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Wong has hit the over on this prop in five consecutive games and seven of his last nine. He’s hitting an even .500 against RHPs over the last two weeks along with a .554 wOBA and .308 ISO. I like him to continue rolling against a struggling Bryse Wilson who has allowed a .455 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 2.12 WHIP against LHBs this season.

Corbin Burnes OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | -102 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Burnes has recorded double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four games and he’s notched at least eight strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. At near even money, this is a great prop to take the over on as Burnes faces off with a Pirates lineup that has the highest kRate vs. RHPs over the last month (27.7%).

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!