Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/19 | Tackling Friday's Monster Slate

August 19, 2022

TGIF! Let's get a look at some pitchers, stacks, and props to target on Friday evening!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

That fine Friday feeling is in the air but before we start getting rowdy, we must first do our best to figure out this enormous 14-game MLB slate that awaits on deck this evening. There is no shortage of ways to attack this one. This slate features many great pitching options, some high upside stack options, and then there’s always the question of what we should do with Coors Field bats. And while it may not be a key DFS game to target, we’ve also got a 2021 World Series rematch with the Astros visiting the Braves! With so much to delve into, let’s get straight to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Rain is at least a moderate possibility in two or three games today with the main trouble spot looking to be in the TEX @ MIN match-up.

HOU @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8 O/U): Same deal as the last couple of days. A stray storm could pop over the ballpark pretty much at any point, but more likely in the earlier innings or just before the game. So, some risk lands on the starting pitchers in the event of a lengthy middle-inning delay but it isn’t overly likely.

TEX @ MIN (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): A lot of scattered storms around MIN today so they may need to get a little lucky to avoid trouble. As of now, it seems as if they should be able to get this game played this evening but there is certainly some risk involved, particularly with the starting pitchers. We’ll need to check the forecast closer to first pitch.

SF @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Some storms will be around so a delay is possible. Doubt you’d want to roster pitchers at Coors Field but they’ll have some risk. Bats will be fine.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.5k | vs. WAS

A lot of eyeballs will be on Snell today and for good reason. He has been completely dialed in over the last month-and-a-half. With the exception of a poor mid-July Coors Field start, Snell has been putting up elite results over his previous eight games: 43.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 2.50 xFIP, .261 opp wOBA, with a massive 37.6% kRate. He’s also showing more control of the plate and has been cutting down on the walks, which have often plagued Snell in recent months/seasons. He is facing the Nationals in back-to-back starts but he also completely shut them down this past Sunday, throwing six shutout three-hit innings with 10 Ks -- a performance that netted him 35.7 DKFP/58 FDFP. That same success will be difficult to replicate tonight but it’s well within the range of outcomes. The Padres stumbled to a loss in the first game of their home series against the Nats last night, but they’ll look to bounce back today. They are, by far, the heaviest favorites on the slate with -360 moneyline odds.

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | @ TB

The guy who is more recognized as the pitching ace in this match-up, Shane McClanahan ($10.2k/$11.2k), will be taking the hill opposite of Singer. But it has been Singer who has been putting on the more “ace-like” performances as of late. Singer has posted 26+ DKFP/47+ FDFP outings in four of his last five starts. In those five starts (32.1 IP), Singer has tallied an exceptional 1.67 ERA with a 2.97 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, .225 opp wOBA, and 30.4% kRate. Today Singer will face off with a strikeout-prone Rays lineup inside the very pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field. Earning the win bonus won’t be easy against McClanahan but if his recent form is any indication, Singer should be a great mid-range pitcher to target today.

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIA

It helps to have an elite offense like the Dodgers on your side to typically provide some great run support, but Tyler Anderson may still have the sneakiest 13-2 record that you’ll find. He doesn’t provide the most elite advanced metrics (4.08 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA) or a ton of strikeouts (19.9% kRate), but in 20 starts this season he has pitched his way to a superb 2.81 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Anderson simply does a great job in limiting hard-hit balls and home runs. The major draw here will stem from the match-up with Miami. The Marlins have easily been the worst offense against left-handed pitching this season, and they struggle even more on the road. Against LHPs on the road, the Marlins have an MLB-worst .215 AVG, .258 wOBA, and 62 wRC+ with an MLB-high 29.3% kRate. He comes in as a better bargain on DraftKings where he will make a strong SP2 play today.

Also Consider:

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.2k | vs. KC

*Martin Perez (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10k | @ MIN

Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k | @ PIT

*Weather concerns.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

San Diego Padres vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

If you played yesterday’s small five-game main slate, chances are you were burned by every Padres bat not named Manny Machado. Well, what are the chances they completely bomb two days in a row when given promising pitching match-ups? I made this point yesterday and, even though it didn’t amount to much, I feel it is worth bringing up again. Since the August 2nd trade deadline, the Padres have *usually* been lights out against right-handed pitching at home. In 204 PA, they are hitting .329 with a league-leading .413 wOBA and 176 wRC+. Paolo Espino is a very subpar starter who has a 4.31 xFIP on the season and gives up a lot of hard contact. Between last night’s stinker, the slate being so large, and Coors Field on the menu, perhaps the Padres will go a touch under-owned today as well. If they bomb again, be sure to give Tyler an earful in the LineStar chat.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Brandon Drury | Sneaky Bat: Ha-Seong Kim (1% pOwn%)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

Rookie southpaw Tommy Henry has only three starts and 17.1 IP under his belt. If we look at his .208 BABIP, we can determine that Henry has been getting very lucky during his brief time in the MLB. As a result of that unsustainably low BABIP, he checks in with a slate-worst 5.68 xFIP and 5.68 SIERA. The Cardinals have been a notoriously dangerous offense against left-handed pitching this season and they’ve been particularly hot vs. LHPs over the last month: .395 wOBA, .274 ISO, 159 wRC+ (STL ranks 1st in all three categories). Their splits against LHPs only get better when they have played on the road away from their more pitcher-friendly home ballpark at Busch Stadium. Grabbing some Cardinals exposure feels like a good move on today’s slate.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill | Sneaky Bat: Dylan Carlson (8% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

In his eight starts since July 1st, Marco Gonzales has accumulated a 5.66 ERA, .337 opp AVG, 1.57 WHIP, and a meager 12.7% kRate. The A’s have been sneaky good against LHPs in recent games, with a .356 wOBA and 141 wRC+ over the last week. Every bat in this A’s order is affordable and you could end up getting some great “fantasy point per dollar” value from a small two or three-man A’s stack.

SEA Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite OAK Bats: Sean Murphy, Shea Langeliers, Chad Pinder | Sneaky Bat: Tony Kemp (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

2B Andres Gimenez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

C Sean Murphy | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

OF Jake Fraley | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

OF LaMonte Wade Jr. | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

C Shea Langeliers | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF LaMonte Wade Jr. | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

First off, there is the obvious Coors Field bump in play here. Secondly, Wade has just been a monster at the plate recently. In his last 10 games, he’s rocking a .515 wOBA, .654 wOBA, 240 wRC+, and has mashed out five home runs. Jose Urena is not a great pitcher and he has given up 2.19 HR/9 against LHBs this season. Wade draws lead-off duties once again in this enticing lefty-on-righty match-up.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Psycho Friday Fun Monday Home Run Prop

Shohei Ohtani, LaMonte Wade Jr., & Jake Fraley ALL to Hit a HR | +10900 (Bovada) | 0.5 Units

Here’s another low-risk, high-reward home run parlay to take a shot on. All three of these guys are in great spots to go yard today, with Fraley being the most under-the-radar inclusion, but he has been raking lately. All three of these guys have, to be honest.

Blake Snell OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | +110 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

Snell has hit the over on this prop in his last three starts, including a 10 strikeout performance in his most recent start against this same Nationals lineup. Snell has racked up an elite 37.6% kRate across his last eight starts and since trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the Nationals have posted a lofty 28.1% kRate vs. LHPs. Let’s look for Snell to record 8+ Ks tonight.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!