Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/18 | Previewing Thursday's Spicy Five-Game Slate!

August 18, 2022

The Padres are in a smash spot and it's a deGrom day as well... but we'll look to find some additional spots to go to today!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a split slate Thursday so I hope everyone who dabbled on today’s early slate is finding their lineups firmly in the green. Now let’s prep for this evening’s five-game main slate! It’s a modest little slate but it’s one that could pack a punch. This slate features an intriguing pitcher’s duel with Jacob deGrom taking on Max Fried down in Atlanta. Beyond that, we have a couple of standout offenses in some strong spots along with the Yankees looking to continue getting off the schneid against “road Berrios.” If ya know, ya know. Let’s have some fun!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ll have two areas with some low-level weather concerns. No PPD threats but enough to force us to keep an eye on the radar once we get closer to first pitch.

BOS @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): A very slight chance for a delay with some low-coverage showers moving around the general Pittsburgh area.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7 O/U): If you remember yesterday, the game in Atlanta got hit with a third-inning delay due to a passing storm. The delay lasted about 45 minutes or so and both starters were able to come back out and continue pitching. We’re looking at a similar delay possibility today, though it seems much more likely that things will stay dry. Bats are safe but pitchers will carry some low-level risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.3k, FD: $12k | @ ATL

It’s deGrom. He's worth a look today. /analysis.

Really though, no one needs me to tell them that deGrom is virtually always a worthy DFS play. As dangerous as the Braves offense can be, they still strike out well above league average. deGrom has a preposterous 50% kRate and 24.6% Swinging Strike Rate in his three starts (16.2 IP) this season. He needed just 76 pitches to rack up a dozen strikeouts against Atlanta 11 days ago and was pitching a perfect game through five innings. His pitch count probably begins to get into the 80s today as well.

Note: Just be sure to run a pre-game weather check to make sure a long mid-game delay isn’t going to be a major risk.

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.5k | vs. NYM

Fried represents the riskier side of this pitcher’s duel but he can certainly turn in a solid performance today. He hasn’t pitched in 11 days and is coming off of the 7-day IL (concussion) but is not expected to face any limitations. In three previous starts against the Mets this season, Fried gave up two earned runs each game and ultimately accrued a 3.18 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, and a 21.3% kRate. Not great, not bad. But he’ll have a chance to outperform those numbers. Over the last two weeks against lefty pitching, the Mets haven’t exactly been great: .274 wOBA, .128 ISO, 81 wRC+ -- all bottom 10 numbers in that span.

Note: Again, run a pre-game weather check here.

Also Consider:

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. WAS

Frankie Montas (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. TOR

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

This is likely to be the chalkiest stack of the slate but it’ll be hard to pass up on some of the Padres bats as they take on an over-the-hill Anibal Sanchez who boasts a slate-worst 7.20 ERA and 22.2% HR/FB Rate. They’ll be seeing Sanchez’s pitches for the second time in five days, which often ends up favoring the hitters. It wasn’t a monumental day on offense this past Saturday in Washington, as they only racked up three runs on six hits (two HRs) against Sanchez across five innings. Perhaps things will work out better now that the Padres get this juicy match-up at home. Ever since making their big moves at the trade deadline, the Padres have crushed right-handed pitching at home (171 plate appearances) to the tune of a .370 AVG, .446 wOBA, .267 ISO, and 199 wRC+. It could be an early exit for Sanchez today if those trends continue, but this Nationals bullpen is nothing to shy away from either.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Brandon Drury | Sneaky Bat: Trent Grisham (9% pOwn%)

New York Yankees vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Blasting a walk-off grand slam when you’re trailing by three runs is certainly the ‘coolest’ way to walk off a game, and that’s what Josh Donaldson did for the Yankees last night. Perhaps they can parlay some of that momentum into their match-up today with the ever-erratic “road Berrios.” Berrios is practically a different pitcher when he’s not at home. Here’s a quick rundown on his home/road splits this season:

Home: 4.10 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 1.46 HR/9, .316 opp wOBA, 24.8% kRate

Road: 7.50 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, 2.50 HR/9, .404 opp wOBA, 15.1% kRate

Also, in five career starts at the new Yankee stadium, Berrios holds a 6.66 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and 2.20 HR/9 Rate. The struggling Yankees are still without two key offensive pieces with Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter on the shelf, but they do get DJ LeMahieu back as their lead-off hitter today after he missed a few games with a toe injury.

TOR Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu | Sneaky Bat: Oswaldo Cabrera (13% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

This probably isn’t the sneakiest of stacks on a five-game slate but, unless you’re rolling the dice on Braves vs. deGrom, Mets vs. Fried, or Nationals vs. Darvish, you’re not going to get to any super-low owned stacks. But the Pirates are never going to draw too much attention even when they find themselves in a good spot on a small slate. Pittsburgh has a ton of lefty/switch-hitting bats to throw out against Winckowski today with eight LHBs confirmed in today’s lineup. Against LHBs this season, Winckowski has a 5.25 xFIP and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a .383 wOBA and .194 ISO. Now, finding the right Pirates bats that will actually perform is a whole other challenge but there is some nice DFS potential to be had with a few of these guys. Everyone in this lineup is super affordable as well.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite PIT Bats: Bryan Reynolds, Ben Gamel, Oneil Cruz | Sneaky Bat: Greg Allen (4% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6k, FD: $5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

C Salvador Perez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Patino (RHP), TB

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Max Castillo (RHP), KC

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Joey Meneses | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Trent Grisham | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Ben Gamel | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Patino (RHP), TB

2B Vaughn Grisson | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), NYM

OF Greg Allen | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6k, FD: $5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

It’s a little lazy to simply say a guy is due for a home run but… Judge is kinda due, am I wrong? Five games without a home run might as well be an eternity for Judge given his near record-setting HR pace this season of one home run blasted every 9.3 at-bats. He has now gone 16 at-bats without a dinger but that may soon change when he steps into the box against Jose Berrios. When pitching on the road this season, Berrios has a 2.12 HR/9 Rate against RHBs. Judge is hitting .400 with an HR against Berrios in 17 previous plate appearances. Let’s look for Judge to end his five-game home run drought this evening.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Manny Machado OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -130 (DraftKings) | 3.0 Units

Nothing is ever a lock in the world of sports betting but… man, this one feels about as close to a lock as it gets. While I don’t love relying on BvP too much, Machado’s BvP against Sanchez is tough to overlook: 19 PA, .471 AVG, .694 wOBA, with five XBH (four HRs). Machado has not only recorded multiple bases but multiple HITS in eight consecutive games with an XBH in six of those games. Since the trade deadline, the Padres have been crushing right-handed pitching and the Nationals do not have a great bullpen to back up Sanchez if (or when) he gets into major trouble.

I also wouldn’t mind throwing a smaller wager on Machado’s multiple hits prop (o1.5 total hits, +150 on DraftKings). Manny’s just swinging too hot of a bat right now.

Max Fried OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -115 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

It’s been 11 days since he last pitched so Fried is well-rested. The additional rest stems from a brief stint on the 7-day IL, but it’s not as if he was dealing was a mechanical injury (concussion). He should be expected to slide right back into his usual workload of around 100 pitches after clearing the MLB’s concussion protocols. In three previous meetings with the Mets this season, Fried has recorded at least five strikeouts on each occasion and I wouldn’t say he necessarily had his best stuff in any of those games. The Mets aren’t an easy team to strike out but they have struggled against LHPs in recent weeks so it’s not a bad spot to expect another 5+ Ks out of Fried in this one.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!