Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/18 | Going Yard on Friday's 12-Game Slate!

Author

Ryan Humphries
August 18, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to lock and load for another big-time slate! A dozen games are on the board for the Friday main slate and this looks like it’s gonna be a good time. There is viable pitching at every salary tier and we’ve got a slew of worthy offensive stacks to build around. Rainy weather will look to be of no significant concern as well which removes one of the major “big slate headaches.” Let’s kick this thing into gear and get into it! Best of luck!

Note: DraftKings is showing a 13-game main slate but keep in mind that players from game two of the DET @ CLE doubleheader will not accrue any fantasy points. Make sure those players do not accidentally find their way into your lineups!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • PHI @ WAS (7:05 ET): Winds left to right at 10 mph.

  • BOS @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds blowing OUT to right around 15 mph. Excellent hitting conditions, particularly for lefty pull hitters given the short porch at Yankee Stadium (#1 HR park for LHBs).

  • SF @ ATL (7:20 ET): Light 5-10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

  • PIT @ MIN (8:10 ET): 10 mph winds blowing mostly IN from right, but also a bit right to left.

  • NYM @ STL (8:15 ET): 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

  • CWS @ COL (8:40 ET): Some scattered storms in the area will up the risk of a delay, thus adding some risk to starting pitchers. It’s Coors Field, and two low-quality starters are on the mound, so it’s not like we’ll be missing out on much by fading both SPs. Bats are fine regardless, and there will be some helpful winds for hitters blowing OUT to left around 5-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.7k, FD: $11.5k | vs. SF

Happy Striday Friday! Strider’s DFS salaries can be restrictive on the rest of your lineup, but it certainly helps whenever his start lines up on a big slate where finding value bats (or a value SP2 on DK) is quite a bit easier. Outside of the hiccup against the Pirates last Monday, Strider has been in his typical dominant form for the last couple of months now. Over his previous 10 starts, he has come away with a 3.26 ERA, 2.59 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 36.3% kRate (13.4 K/9). That 3+ ERA is a bit underwhelming by Strider’s standards, but the 2.59 xFIP is a better indicator of where his ERA “should” be. An uncharacteristically high .343 BABIP in that 10-game stretch has been the major culprit of Strider’s “bad luck.” He’ll take the mound at home in Atlanta today where he has boasted a career 40.6% kRate and 2.18 xFIP.

Anyone who has been reading these newsletters lately knows that the Giants have been a team we’ve been targeting with opposing SPs as of late -- for the most part, it has worked out quite well. Their offense has simply been ineffective and has scored four runs or fewer in 21 of their last 26 games. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, they rank last in the MLB in AVG (.200), OPS (.554), wOBA (.251), ISO (.071), and wRC+ (56) while striking out 23.0% of the time. If you extend that sample size back to the last month, the results do not get much better. The Braves (-245 ML) own the best odds to win on the slate and this looks like a spot where Strider could provide 30+ DKFP/55+ FDFP upside.

Zack Thompson (LHP), STL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYM

We got the ultra-obvious Strider play out of the way, so now we’ll jump way down the DFS pricing ladder and spotlight a couple of cheap SP options that may be worth a dart throw on today’s slate. The Cardinals have been ramping up Zack Thompson’s workload over the last couple of weeks, stretching him out into a more traditional starting role. Thompson made his first official start of the season on August 6th against the Rockies where he covered 4.0 IP on 60 pitches and allowed just one run on two hits and a walk while striking out eight batters -- good for 21.2 DKFP/33 FDFP. He followed that up with another strong four-inning appearance against the Royals last Friday, this time out of the bullpen. It was another outing where he allowed just one run while striking out five on 73 pitches. Walks have been an issue for Thompson this season (11.0% BB%) but, otherwise, he has impressed with his 2.77 xFIP and 31.2% kRate. While he’s not going to push for 100 pitches, Thompson should theoretically be able to extend his pitch count into mid-80s territory and work through five, maybe six, innings. It’s always going to be enticing when we can get a starting pitcher with a 30+% kRate for this cheap.

Thompson will take on a middling-at-best Mets lineup that was only able to amass four hits and three runs across six innings against Adam Wainwright yesterday. Wainwright has been arguably the worst starting pitcher in the MLB this season, and the Mets are responsible for both of his quality starts in 2023. Now, the Mets have been hitting lefty pitchers a bit better lately and they do not strike out a ton. With that said, the Mets also do not stack up well against Thompson’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamers (56%) and curveballs (34.3%). Against those two pitches (from LHPs), the Mets own the 3rd lowest batting average and 8th lowest wOBA. The Cardinals (-152 ML) are also solid home favorites today, so we should see Thompson have a fairly strong shot at a win as well.

 

Andre Jackson (RHP), PIT | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIN

Jackson will be our second spotlighted value pitcher today and, much like Zack Thompson, he’s been elevated from his bullpen role into the position of a more traditional starter. Jackson has routinely covered multiple innings in long relief this year but earned his first start of the season five days ago and reached a season-high pitch count of 78. He’s not quite as prolific of a strikeout pitcher as Thompson, owning a 25.0% kRate, but he’s still solid in that regard and has posted an admirable 3.63 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, and a low 4.5% BB% in 26.1 IP this season. Jackson’s 12.3% Swinging Strike Rate is also tied for the 5th best mark among today’s starters.

The match-up is the real draw here. While the Twins’ offense can rack up some runs (119 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days), they’re also one of the most strikeout-happy teams in the MLB. Over the last month, only the Rockies (28.8% kRate) own a higher kRate vs. RHPs than the Twins (28.4% kRate). The Twins will be rolling out their ace, Pablo Lopez, against the Pirates today, so the pathway to earning a win won’t be easy for Jackson. But, should he push for 80-to-90 pitches, Jackson could easily rack up quite a few Ks along the way. If you’re going after one of these cheap pitchers, Thompson is probably the “safer” option, but Jackson just might have more overall upside. It’s also worth noting that the Twins have an MLB-high 29.4% kRate against Jackson’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, changeup, and slider.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PIT

Michael Lorenzen (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | @ WAS

Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | @ OAK

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Chicago White Sox vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

+ Phillies: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 5th among non-Coors teams).

+ Adon only has 14.0 IP in the bigs this season, so looking at his MLB results since the start of 2022 (18 starts, 78.2 IP), we’ll see some very lackluster results: 6.75 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, .359 opp wOBA, and a 61.2% Left-On-Base%.

+ The Phillies have been swinging the bat well against RHPs over the last two weeks: .278 AVG, .856 OPS, .363 wOBA, .240 ISO, and 128 wRC+.

+ The Nationals’ bullpen owns a 4.76 xFIP this season, 2nd worst in the MLB.

+ The Phillies offense has dominated in 10 games versus the Nationals this season: .298 AVG, .954 OPS, .402 wOBA, .281 ISO, and 154 wRC+ while averaging 7.1 runs/gm.

+ There shouldn’t be much ownership oh Phillies bats -- 8-of-9 hitters with a < 10% pOwn%.

- The Phillies’ offense has not been as stout on the road (4.44 runs/gm away vs. 4.83 runs/gm home).

Favorite PHI Bats: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott

Bargain Bat: Jake Cave

Boston Red Sox vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

+ Red Sox: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Brito has not pitched well at home: 5.26 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, .364 opp wOBA, and 2.45 HR/9.

+ There will be some very intriguing hitting conditions with 15 mph winds blowing out to right, directly at the Yankee Stadium short porch -- Red Sox lefty bats should receive a bump due to those conditions (Yankee Stadium: #1 HR park for LHBs).

-/+ The Red Sox have been fairly average against RHPs over the last month -- their 100 wRC+ ranks 16th.

- The Yankees have had a top-five bullpen over the last month.

- The Red Sox offense has not been as potent on the road (4.31 runs/gm, ranks 21st).

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Justin Turner

Bargain Bat: Pablo Reyes

 

The “Ryan, please don’t write up the Braves stack again” Stack

Atlanta Braves vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

The cliff notes: Cobb (-32.8% less FPPG on the road) owns a 6.33 ERA over his last five starts. Braves continue to be a top-three offense vs. RHPs (137 wRC+ L2Weeks) and possess a 5.1 implied run total today (T-3rd among non-Coors teams). The downside is that the Giants own a top-10 bullpen and I also have my concerns about how much of a negative impact the absence of Ozzie Albies (hamstring, 10-day IL) is having on the top of the Braves lineup.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

+ Every Astros hitter has a ≤ 3% pOwn%.

+ Astros: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-8th on the slate).

+ Miller has had some excellent outings in his rookie season but has struggled to a 5.15 ERA on the road.

+ Miller’s statcast metrics over the last month are lit up red like a Christmas tree -- over the last 30 days, Miller ranks inside the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers in barreled balls (10), average exit velocity (92.9 mph), and average distance (220.3 feet).

+ Since getting both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back from the IL on July 26th, against RHPs, the Astros have ranked top 10 in wOBA and wRC+.

- The Mariners have had arguably the best bullpen in the MLB this season.

- Houston averages a half-run per game less at home as opposed to on the road.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Erasmo Ramirez (RHP), TB

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Randy Arozarena, TB | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zack Thompson (RHP), STL

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK; $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

SS Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Yoan Moncada, CWS | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

2B Bryson Stott, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

1B Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

OF Tyler O’Neill, STL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), NYM

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B/SS Elvis Andrus, CWS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

1B/3B Mike Moustakas, LAA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Erasmo Ramirez (RHP), TB

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andre Jackson (RHP), PIT

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andre Jackson (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Jake Cave, PHI | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bryce Harper MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Shohei Ohtani + Randy Arozarena MORE than 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Combo)

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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