Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/17 | Prepping For Some Midweek Mayhem

August 17, 2022

The Rangers offense is in a prime spot today... but will they ultimately feast or flop? Let's dig into things and make our own prediction.

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s Wednesday my dudes so it’s about time to prepare for a little midweek mayhem. This evening’s nine-game slate has plenty of intrigue to it. A couple of bona fide aces headline today’s pitching with Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodon on the bump. But I do believe some of the cheaper arms will bring ample fantasy scoring potential to the table as well. There are going to be quite a few interesting team stack options to choose from, including one unusual suspect from the Lone Star state that may very well end up being the chalkiest stack of the day. Let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no immediate PPD threats at this time but we’ll need to be on the lookout for the possibility of a weather delay in two or three games this evening.

BOS @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): A few clusters of scattered storms will be around but they’re currently expected to stay clear of Pittsburgh.

TB @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some rain moves into New York around first pitch so, if it makes its way over the ballpark, a late start is a possibility. It’s not looking like a PPD scenario.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): This game has some middle-inning delay potential. It looks like a dry start but some scattered storms could roll through around 8 pm ET. If there is a weather delay, it doesn’t seem like there’s enough rain to trigger a PPD but it could be a somewhat lengthy delay. Some risk is placed on the starting pitchers here. We'll have to see how the ATL forecast is looking closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.7k | vs. ARI

It’s looking like a really strong spot to pay up for Rodon tonight. Whenever he gets highlighted in these newsletters, I always bring up his tremendous home splits so I’ll do that once again. In 57.0 IP at Oracle Park this season, Rodon boasts a 1.89 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and an elite 34.8% kRate while averaging +31.9% more fantasy points compared to when he pitches on the road. On the flip side, the D-Backs have REALLY struggled against southpaw pitching on the road. It’s only a 64 plate appearance sample size, but over the last month against LHPs on the road, they have a league-worst .167 AVG, .185 wOBA, .033 ISO, and a 17 wRC+ to go with a moderately high 23.4% kRate. Good potential for a Rodon ceiling game tonight and the Giants are the heaviest favorite on the slate with -220 moneyline odds.

Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DET

Quantrill seems to be in a groove right now and he carries some generous DFS price tags. In his last two outings, he has faced a pair of high-level offenses -- the Astros and the Blue Jays. In those 13.0 innings pitched, he gave up zero runs while allowing four hits and one walk. He recorded the win in both games while also accounting for 11 strikeouts. He tends to be more reliable at home (+30.1% more FP) and he cannot ask for a better match-up. Against RHPs over the last month, the Tigers are hitting .212 as a team and have a league-worst 65 wRC+ to go along with a league-high 28.9% kRate. Quantrill is far from a consistent pitcher so he may prove to be fool’s gold but I’ll lean towards him putting up another strong performance today. The Guardians also check in as heavy -210 favorites.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k | vs. COL

There is nothing spectacular about Jordan Montgomery but he’s often simply a reliable pitcher who limits the damage and pitches five or six solid innings. He has a strong 1.07 WHIP to go along with a 3.37 ERA and 3.58 xFIP. He has a slightly below average 20.8% kRate on the season but his 13.7% Swinging Strike Rate indicates he may be due for some positive strikeout regression -- typically, you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% to get their general overall kRate. The positive regression seems to be hitting lately since he has a 26.3% kRate over his last five starts. It’s usually never a bad idea to go after the Rockies offense when they’re outside of Coors Field. The Rockies have been a bottom 10 offense when facing LHPs on the road over the last month: .217 AVG, .271 wOBA, .130 ISO, 71 wRC+, 24.3% kRate. And, continuing a trend with today’s highlighted pitchers, Montgomery and the Cardinals head into this match-up as heavy -215 favorites.

Also Consider:

 

*Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.5k | @ ATL

Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. BOS

*In-game weather delay concerns.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

Will the Rangers be chalk today? It’s looking likely but, admittedly, it’s a terrific spot. Adam Oller checks in as arguably the worst quality starter on the mound today. In his 48.1 IP this season, he’s racked up an awful 7.26 ERA, 6.29 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, and 2.23 HR/9 Rate to go along with an almost non-existent 13.5% kRate. Whenever a pitcher has a 7+ ERA and 6+ xFIP across a decent sample size (let's say 30+ innings), he’s just not good and “bad baseball luck” doesn’t seem to be Oller's problem. In Oller’s defense, he has pitched against a ton of tough competition this season, but the Rangers have been a sneaky solid offense and rank 11th in the MLB with a 109 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia | Sneaky Bat: Leody Tavares (7% pOwn%)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

The Cardinals didn’t do incredibly well yesterday but if you rostered guys like Goldy, O’Neill, Edman, and Carlson, you were pretty happy with the results. I don’t mind going back to them today as they face German Marquez for the second time in six days. The last meeting with Marquez was in Coors Field, where he mostly held St. Louis in check with two ER on eight hits and a walk across six innings. But the Cardinals have been strong, in general, against RHPs lately, accounting for a 131 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 2nd) along with a .194 ISO (ranks 3rd). If they manage to do some decent damage against Marquez, they’ll get some plus match-ups against a bad Rockies bullpen.

COL Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman | Sneaky Bat: Lars Nootbaar (6% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

Cole Ragans vs. Adam Oller… this is perhaps the worst pitching match-up in recent memory so, naturally, the baseball gods will have this end as a 2-1 ballgame. But, if things don’t work out that way, expect some decent offense on both sides of this match-up. I don’t believe Oakland will break the slate, but you may be able to find some diamonds in the rough here. It’s only a 29 PA sample size, but the A’s lead the MLB against LHPs over the last week with a .454 wOBA and 211 wRC+! Cole Ragans only has two MLB starts under his belt spanning 9.1 IP, but in that time he’s posted a rough 7.04 xFIP and 1.71 WHIP. The Rangers bullpen has been solid so there’s a chance some relievers enter the game early if Ragans happens to really struggle, but we can still take some shots on a few of these sure-to-be-low-owned A’s bats.

TEX Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite OAK Bats: Sean Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Tony Kemp | Sneaky Bat: Shea Langeliers (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

C Sean Murphy | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

OF Steven Kwan | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Daniel Norris (LHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

C Shea Langeliers | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), TEX

OF Estevan Florial | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), TB

2B/SS Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), TB

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

Corey Seager was originally the guy I was going to roll with but Shannon has him picked for today so I called an audible and went for another Texas lefty with Nathaniel Lowe! Lefties against Adam Oller just tend to rake. Oller has faced 86 LHBs this season and has ultimately allowed a massive .441 wOBA and .352 ISO to go along with a 9.17 ERA, 6.76 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, and 3.06 HR/9 Rate. Yeah… he’s been pretty terrible against the left side of the plate to say the least. Lowe has above-average power against RHPs and, with some solid contact, he’s a solid home run candidate today. As an added bonus for Lowe and the rest of the Rangers sluggers: the A’s bullpen has a 2.11 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Carlos Rodon UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

In two previous meetings with Arizona this season, Rodon has given up a combined eight hits across 11 innings. Both of those games were at Chase Field. Tonight, Rodon is pitching at home and, as mentioned in the DFS pitching section above, the D-Backs have a league-worst .167 AVG against LHPs over the last month when playing on the road. Let’s look for Rodon to limit Arizona’s offense to four hits or fewer tonight.

Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -127 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

I’m liking this spot for Seager against A’s righty Adam Oller today. To repeat what was mentioned above in Nathaniel Lowe’s HR call write-up, “Oller has faced 86 LHBs this season and has ultimately allowed a massive .441 wOBA and .352 ISO to go along with a 9.17 ERA, 6.76 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, and 3.06 HR/9 Rate.” Seager is a top 20% hitter vs. RHPs and he’ll have a strong chance to account for multiple bases in this match-up.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Big thank you to unknown and bulletproof for being the only two people to respond to me when I asked for some dong calls in chat 😥😥😥

Best of luck out there today, everyone!