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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Most MLB clubs get an off day or had a travel day today so we’ll be looking at a diminutive four-game main slate this evening. Some poor weather in Cleveland will also threaten to cut this slate down to just three games as well, so keep an eye out for a potential postponement. Nonetheless, we’ll be cooking up a quick little newsletter today and get our MLB DFS fix in for the time being before facing down tomorrow’s hefty 13-game Friday slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ CLE (7:15 ET): As touched on in the intro, the forecast is looking dicey in Cleveland this evening. A strong band of storms is approaching the area this afternoon and the timing of its arrival looks to be right around first pitch. This isn’t the sort of rain that can be played through so if they elect to implement a late start, it’s likely going to be a lengthy one. I won’t be ruling out players from this game just yet, but a postponement tonight (in favor of a doubleheader tomorrow) looks like a very real outcome. Be sure to track the status/forecast of this game leading up to its 7:15 ET first pitch. If they do play, there will be some stiff 15 mph winds blowing OUT to right/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.4k | vs. MIL

The change in scenery seems to be working for Lynn who limped to a 6.47 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox this season. Since being traded to the Dodgers, Lynn has looked more like his old self, procuring a 2.00 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .197 opp AVG, and 31.4% kRate in three starts (18.0 IP). The home run ball is still giving him some issues (four HRs allowed in those three games) but they’ve all been solo shots that ultimately haven’t hurt his DFS outcomes much at all.

Lynn draws a strong match-up against a Brewers team that has posted an MLB-worst .571 OPS and 56 wRC+ against RHPs on the road over the last month (407 plate appearances). Milwaukee has been the sixth-worst road offense this season, averaging just 4.05 runs/gm away. They haven’t been striking out at a high rate but Lynn is still a strong candidate to rack up 6-to-8 Ks tonight and the Dodgers (-147 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on this small slate. Lynn is very likely to be the highest-owned pitcher today (40+% pOwn% on both sites) but it may be worth eating the chalk and trying to differentiate your lineups elsewhere.

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k | @ CLE

Note: Remember that this game has a very real chance of being postponed, so approach with caution.

If the forecast for this game improves closer to first pitch, Skubal will be worth some DFS consideration. He only has seven MLB starts this season following a stint on the 60-day IL to begin the year, but in that time he has put up a slate-best 2.91 xFIP and 27.7% kRate while inducing a high 54.7% Ground Ball Rate. A high strikeout + high ground ball rate pitcher is a bit of a rarity but Skubal has fit that profile thus far in 2023.

The major draw for him will be a match-up against a Guardians team that has been utterly inept against left-handed pitching. Against LHPs in the last month (296 plate appearances), the Guardians have managed just a .551 OPS, .241 wOBA, .087 ISO, and 48 wRC+ -- ranking last in the MLB in each category. The catch is that they don’t strike out much at all (17.2% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days) but Skubal will still have a strong chance to return value, particularly on DraftKings at his $7,200 salary. The bad weather could knock him off of the slate but, as of now, he’s worth a look.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $11k, FD: $10.7k | @ SD

Very poor road splits (-58.0% less FPPG) but always has some upside and the Padres offense is very hit-or-miss.

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.1k | @ LAD

Ownership leverage play. Tough match-up but Burnes should be the lowest-owned pitcher out of the top-four priced arms on the slate (Gallen, Burnes, Lynn, Skubal).

Jose Quintana (RHP), NYM | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ STL

If Skubal were to get knocked off the slate due to weather, Quintana would be the next-best option among the cheaper pitchers. He held the Braves offense to one run across six innings in his last start.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Rich Hill (LHP), SD

+ Hill has looked his age over his last seven starts where he has posted a 7.18 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, .328 opp AVG, .405 opp wOBA, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate to go along with a low 15.4% kRate.

+ In 58 PA vs. Hill, the current D-Backs roster has a .394 AVG, .404 wOBA, and .275 ISO.

+ Hill’s last start came against the D-Backs just five days ago (3.1 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 ER) -- any time a team faces the same starting pitcher within the span of a week, it often works out in their favor.

+ The D-Backs have been more potent offensively on the road (5.10 runs/gm) than at home (4.33 runs/gm).

-/+ D-Backs: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

-/+ Padres have had a middling bullpen over the last month.

- Petco Park: #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The D-Backs are coming off of a road series in Colorado -- sometimes the “Coors Field hangover” can be very real.

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham

Bargain Bat: Buddy Kennedy

New York Mets vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

I won’t dive into this stack too much because anyone who has followed the MLB even a little bit this season is aware of just how awful the ghost of Adam Wainwright has been (8.78 ERA, 5.65 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, and 1.89 HR/9). The Mets are pretty much guaranteed to be the highest-owned stack today with the majority of hitters carrying 20% to 40+% pOwn%. It’s a bad offense versus a worse pitcher but Mets bats make plenty of sense today. Of course, baseball has a knack for crushing expected outcomes so there will also be some merit in fading the Mets offense completely for small slate leverage purposes.

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo

Bargain Bat: Rafael Ortega

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

+ This is primarily a leverage play against Lynn, who should be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate (43% pOwn% DK, 42% pOwn% on FD).

+ Favoring/stacking the Brewers' lefty hitters could pay dividends -- against LHBs this season, Lynn owns a poor 7.01 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 2.63 HR/9 Rate, .313 opp AVG, .408 opp wOBA, and .272 opp ISO.

+ The Dodgers bullpen has a 4.65 xFIP over the last month -- 6th worst in the MLB during that stretch.

+ Most Brewers bats have a ≤ 12% pOwn%, which is particularly low for a four-game slate.

- As touched on in Lynn’s write-up, the Brewers have been a poor road offense (4.05 runs/gm) and, against RHPs on the road over the last month, they’ve mustered just a .571 OPS and 56 wRC+.

- Brewers: 3.9 implied runs (ranks T-last on the slate).

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Carlos Santana, Sal Frelick

Bargain Bat: Brice Turang

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), SD

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Tommy Pham, ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), SD

SS Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

OF Tyler O’Neill, STL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

2B/SS Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD

1B Daniel Vogelbach, NYM | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

2B/3B Buddy Kennedy, ARI | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), SD

OF Rafael Ortega, NYM | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Note: Tyler went with Trevor Story today. Since the Red Sox game had an early start, one person has already been selected for the HR Call contest. The second will be selected for the Christian Yelich call later on so there’s plenty of time to get in on today’s contest! Let’s see if Yelich will bust up the Lynn chalk with a dinger this evening!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays today. Back at it tomorrow!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!