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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to get crazy with eight games slotted in on the Wednesday main slate! Unlike yesterday, we’ll see a bit more of a balance between pitching and offense. Five-of-eight games own 9+ run totals, half of the teams on the slate carry at least a 4.5 implied run total, and there are at least one or two guys to like out of each pitcher pricing tier. We should have no weather concerns to worry about either, which is always a plus. To anyone currently dabbling in the early slate action, I hope you’re well inside the cash zone by the time you’re reading this! Let’s get to work on this eight-gamer, shall we? Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS @ CHC (8:05 ET): Winds OUT to left at 10+ mph at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Bump to bats.

• SEA @ KC (8:10 ET): 10 mph winds a bit right to left, a bit OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.1k | vs. PHI

Fortunately, we’ve got a few high-caliber arms to choose from on this eight-game slate and Gausman will get the spotlight from me today. He heads into his 24th start of the season boasting a slate-best 2.91 xFIP and 32.5% kRate. He’s also at home today which is where he’s been at his best and has averaged +25.0% more FPPG. Gausman has posted a 2.71 ERA at home (3.38 ERA away) where his xFIP has dropped to 2.44 (3.38 xFIP away) and his kRate has jumped up to an elite 36.2% (28.9% kRate away).

Gausman takes on a Phillies offense that has some dangerous bats to worry about. That being said, the Phillies rank 24th with an 89 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month and their 24.2% kRate is the 10th highest in that span. The Phillies have also not been as dangerous on the road, where their 4.37 runs/gm rank 20th in the MLB. With Aaron Nola on the mound for Philadelphia, it’s fair to assume that we could see a pitcher’s duel break out here, and that’s also apparent in this game’s slate-low 7.5-run over/under. That being said, the Blue Jays (-148 ML) are still moderate home favorites and the Phillies will be pinned with a slate-low 3.4 implied runs. Gausman should come attached with a safe floor today and he likely has the most double-digit strikeout upside of any arm on this slate.

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAA

Following an extremely strong month of May that overlapped into early June, Jon Gray experienced some serious regression beginning in a June 18th match-up with Toronto. There have been quite a few ugly DFS scores since then but Gray was able to get back on track in his most recent start against the slumping Giants offense last Friday when he pitched seven scoreless innings of two-hit baseball while racking up seven strikeouts and scoring 32.6 DKFP/52 FDFP. I have my doubts that he’ll continue to build off of that start but he is backed up by the always-potent Rangers offense and he’ll face another struggling offense today.

The Angels enter into this match-up hitting just .223 against RHPs over the last month, ranking them 27th in that category, to go along with an 89 wRC+, ranking 22nd. Perhaps most notable is the fact that they’ve owned a huge 28.6% kRate against righties in that same span, which is the third-highest in baseball. On the season, the Angels also have the 4th highest kRate of 26.9% against right-handed 4-seam fastballs and sliders, which are two pitches that make up nearly 75% of Gray’s pitch mix. Gray has a fairly pedestrian 20.8% kRate on the year but we’ve seen him punch out as many as 12 hitters in a single game this season and he’s coming off of that nice seven-strikeout performance from last week. The Rangers (-177 ML) are heavy favorites at home and, if Gray can pitch into the 6th inning, he’ll be a decent bet to land 6-to-8 Ks along the way while potentially earning a quality start and/or win bonus. He’ll be a preferred play on DraftKings at $6,900.

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. BOS

Consider this very much of a low-owned (11% pOwn%) boom-or-bust DraftKings SP2 play, more suited for large-field GPPs. At just $6,000, no other pitcher in Gore’s immediate price range comes close to the 26.7% kRate that he has posted this season. The strikeout upside will be the major reason for taking a shot on Gore today because he has been giving up a lot of barrels lately and has put up a pretty ugly 5.33 ERA over his last five starts.

With that in mind, Gore might just be able to find some success against a Red Sox lineup that has had issues with left-handed pitching in recent weeks. Over the last month, Boston ranks 24th with a 71 wRC+ vs. LHPs to go along with a lofty 26.5% kRate (8th highest). They’re also on the road where they average just 4.30 runs/gm (ranks 21st), which is over a run less than what they average at their hitter-friendly home ballpark at Fenway (5.32 runs/gm). It’s far from a safe bet, but Gore will bring some 20 DKFP upside to the table, making him a worthy GPP dart throw at his current DraftKings salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k | vs. BAL

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. NYY

James Paxton (LHP), WAS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10k | @ WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

+ Rangers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ Detmers has been much worse on the road (-65.5% less FPPG) where he has posted a 6.70 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, .368 opp wOBA, and 1.73 HR/9 Rate.

+ Detmers has been in some very erratic form -- over his last six starts, he owns a 10.30 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, 1.93 WHIP, .453 opp wOBA, and 3.20 HR/9 Rate.

+ Detmers has some poor reverse splits so no need to shy away from the Rangers’ LHBs -- Detmers vs. LHBs: .313 AVG, .410 wOBA, .265 ISO, 8.41 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 2.66 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Rangers have been the #1 home offense this season (6.31 runs/gm) and Globe Life Field has ranked as the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark and #1 home run ballpark.

+ Rangers at home vs. LHPs this season: .295 AVG (2nd), .886 OPS (1st), .379 wOBA (1st), .223 ISO (2nd), and 143 wRC+ (1st).

+ The Angels’ bullpen has an MLB-worst 1.58 WHIP over the last month.

- In 112 PA vs. the current Rangers roster, Detmers has held them to a middling .255 AVG while racking up a high 30.9% kRate.

- Core Rangers bats are pricey.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver

Bargain Bat: JP Martinez

Chicago Cubs vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

+ Cubs: 5.7 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Clevinger has posted an awful 6.27 xFIP in road games this season and has allowed an average distance of 202.8 feet over the last month (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Over the last month vs. RHPs, the Cubs have ranked 1st in AVG, 2nd in OPS, 1st in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and 1st in wRC+.

+ The Cubs have been the 4th best home offense (5.46 runs/gm) this season.

+ Wrigley Field has ranked as the #7 hitter’s ballpark this season, and conditions will be great for hitting with 10+ mph winds blowing out to left field tonight.

+ The White Sox have had a bottom-10-ranked bullpen over the last month.

- The Cubs have been in somewhat of a slump recently, scoring four runs or fewer in five of their last seven games (but, it’s worth noting, six of those games were on the road).

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Mike Tauchman

Bargain Bat: Ian Happ

Obligatory Braves Stack

Atlanta Braves vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), NYY

+ Braves (5.3 implied runs, ranks 2nd on the slate) are in another good spot at home against Vasquez.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

+ Every Royals hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Castillo has not been as effective on the road (-29.6% less FPPG).

+ Castillo has given up plenty of barrels lately -- 10 barreled balls L30Days ranks him inside the bottom 5th percentile.

+ Believe it or not, the Royals have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month -- their 121 wRC+ ranks 7th in the MLB.

+ The Royals have been even more dominant vs. RHPs in the last two weeks: .324 AVG (1st), .900 OPS (2nd), .383 wOBA (2nd), .208 ISO (5th), and 144 wRC+ (144 wRC+) -- for comparison, they’re only putting up slightly “worse” overall numbers than the Braves in that stretch.

+ Kauffman Stadium has been the #7 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season and there will be some helpful 10 mph winds blowing out to left at times.

- Castillo is still a certified ace and could easily end up pitching six or seven strong innings today.

- The Mariners’ bullpen is one of the best in baseball -- their 3.70 xFIP ranks 1st on the season.

- Royals: 4.0 implied runs (4th lowest on the slate).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Michael Massey

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), NYY

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. James McArthur/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

2B/SS Trevor Story, BOS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Adam Duvall, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B Ty France, SEA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. James McArthur/Alec Marsh (RHPs), KC

2B/OF Nicky Lopez, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), NYY

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF JP Martinez, TEX | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

2B/SS Elvis Andrus, CWS | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corey Seager MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Reid Detmers LESS than 15.5 Pitching Outs

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!