Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/16 | Another Takedown Tuesday Is Here!

August 16, 2022

The Cease vs. Verlander duel draws the headlines today but we've got plenty of other action to delve into on this slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The day after Monday only means one thing… TAKEDOWN TUESDAY IS HERE! As usual, we’ve got a behemoth of a slate on our hands with 13 games on deck. We’ll go ahead and jump straight into the action but I’d like to quickly note that if you’re a fan of elite pitching duels, you may not want to miss tonight’s Astros @ White Sox game which will feature Justin Verlander taking on Dylan Cease. Should be a good one! Alright, let’s have a day!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Fortunately, there won’t be many weather issues today. The one game to keep an eye on will be BOS @ PIT. One thing worth noting is the fact that temperatures in all of today’s games are relatively cool by mid-August standards (specifically on the east coast). The warmest game on the slate will be NYM @ ATL where temps are “only” expected to be around 80 degrees.

BOS @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some rain in the area but it’s expected to be lighter stuff. It’s one of those situations where they could avoid the wet weather altogether, they could play through a little rain, or they could issue a delay and wait for things to clear up. Overall, a PPD seems very unlikely but a delay can’t be 100% ruled out.

DET @ CLE (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): Rain will be around the area but it's expected to skirt by Cleveland and not impact play.

HOU @ CWS (8:10 ET, 7 O/U): Big-time pitcher’s duel here (Verlander vs. Cease) but some 10 mph winds blowing OUT to right will give hitters a slight bump. But, to state the obvious, I still wouldn’t be looking here for offense.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.9k | vs. HOU

The “safer” route to navigate this pitcher’s duel would seemingly be to side with Justin Verlander ($10.6k/$11.2k) but the main reason folks would go away from Cease is due to the tougher match-up against Houston’s offense. However, the Astros haven’t exactly been crushing right-handed pitching lately. In the last two weeks, the Astros rank 24th with an 89 wRC+ vs. RHPs and they tend to be less dangerous when playing on the road. Cease currently has an incredible streak going where he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in FOURTEEN consecutive starts. This streak began on May 29th and since then he has come away with a ridiculous 0.66 ERA with an opponent average of just .172. He also boasts an increased strikeout rate when playing at home (36.1% kRate) versus on the road (29.5% kRate). The Astros are a tough team to strikeout but Cease (16% pOwn%) should be considered in GPPs as a pivot off of the much chalkier Verlander (29% pOwn%).

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | @ LAA

Ray is going to be pretty chalky tonight but it’s simply a great spot for him to succeed. Over the last month against LHPs, the Angels are batting below the Mendoza Line with a .196 team AVG to go along with a paltry 66 wRC+ (ranks 28th in MLB). Ray brings high-end strikeout potential to the table today with his 28.0% kRate and 14.7% Swinging Strike Rate. He has a concerning 5.50 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, and 1.49 WHIP when pitching on the road this season but the Angels match-up stifles many of those concerns. The Mariners are heavy -180 road favorites today so he’ll have a great shot at picking up the win here as well.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYY

There are safer value pitchers to go after today but, at this point, the heavily slumping Yankees offense probably needs to be one that we target with pitching, at least in GPPs. Springs is a talented pitcher whose 3.21 xFIP and 3.20 SIERA rank out as the second-best figures on this slate behind only Dylan Cease (3.12 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA). Springs also brings above-average strikeout potential to the table with his 26.8% kRate and 13.6% SwStr% while rarely walking anyone (5.3% BB%). But let’s get to the Yankees… over the last week, they rank dead last in the MLB with their putrid .157 AVG, .220 wOBA, and 39 wRC+ while striking out 29.5% of the time. Sure, they still have a healthy Aaron Judge who can change the trajectory of a game with one swing of his bat, but with guys like Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Matt Carpenter still on the shelf with injuries, this lineup just isn’t doing much offensively. The Yankees offense could wake up any day now but, for now, Springs is looking like a tempting sub-5% owned pitcher to target in GPPs.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.2k | @ CWS

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. TB

Jose Quintana (LHP), STL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. COL

*Justin Steele (LHP), WAS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $9.7k | @ WAS

*DraftKings SP2 Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

When the Cardinals are matched up with a subpar lefty, it’s often a good time to get some shares of their offense. Against LHPs over the last month, the Cardinals lead the MLB with a .383 wOBA and .273 ISO while ranking second with a 151 wRC+. They’re also striking out just 15.7% of the time. As one might expect from any Rockies pitcher, Kyle Freeland has been better when pitching on the road but he’s facing this same Cardinals offense for the second time in six days. At Coors Field last Wednesday, the Cardinals smacked 10 hits and scored six runs on Freeland in just 4.1 innings.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Albert Pujols | Sneaky Bat: Lars Nootbaar (1% pOwn%)

Cleveland Guardians vs. Garrett Hill (RHP), DET

It’s a small 15.0 inning sample size, but Garrett Hill has posted a 7.80 ERA, 5.78 xFIP, and 8.8% kRate on the road this season. The Guardians are an above-average offense against RHPs. They aren’t necessarily a team that has a ton of pop in their lineup so you’re essentially hoping for them to smack a bunch of hits into the gaps and maaaaybe get a homer from one of their few power bats, like JRam or Andres Gimenez. That remains a likely outcome since they’ll also get some innings against a Tigers bullpen that has a 5.83 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last two weeks (second-worst in both categories).

DET Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite CLE Bats: Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan | Sneaky Bat: Oscar Gonzalez (2% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

Perhaps not the sneakiest of stacks but outside of Ronald Acuna Jr. (11% pOwn%) every Braves hitter has a sub-5% pOwn% today. I believe they’ll be slightly more popular than that after the offensive onslaught they put on the Mets last night and they also shelled Taijuan Walker for eight runs on seven hits (two HRs) in one inning when they last faced him 11 days ago. Walker is not a bad pitcher by any means and he bounced back in his last start. However, he is posting some concerning statcast numbers over the last month: 40.9% HardContact%, 28.6% LineDrive%, 191.1 ft. average distance. The Braves also have a .224 ISO vs. RHPs over the last two weeks, which trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers in that span. Five guys in their lineup today have at least a .242 ISO vs. RHPs this season so there is power all throughout the order.

NYM Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley | Sneaky Bat: Vaughn Grisson (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Greinke (RHP), KC

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Willson Contreras | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

2B Andres Gimenez | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Garrett Hill (RHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF Franmil Reyes | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Lamonte Wade Jr. | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

1B Albert Pujols | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

2B Vaughn Grissom | DK: $2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Greinke (RHP), KC

Let’s go hunting for a Big Bux dinger tonight! Buxton has five homers in his last 20 games and will draw a favorable match-up with Zack Greinke today. Interesting fact: all eight home runs that Greinke has given up to RHBs have come in road games, resulting in a lofty 2.57 HR/9 Rate. Buxton has a huge .350 ISO and 25.0% HR/FB Rate against RHPs at home this season so if he gets some solid contact and gets one up in the air, that baseball will have a great chance of sailing over the fence this evening. The Royals bullpen also has a 1.62 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks -- fourth-highest in the MLB in that span.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Justin Steele OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | +115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Since the trade deadline on August 2nd, the Nationals have posted a 32.0% kRate vs. LHPs, which is the second-highest kRate (vs. lefties) in the MLB during that stretch. Steele recently racked up nine strikeouts against this same Nationals offense six days ago and he has recorded at least six Ks in six of his last eight starts. He’s also averaging 11.15 K/9 (26.3% kRate) in road games this year. I like his chances of getting *at least* six more punchouts in today’s game.

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

Goldy isn’t necessarily on one of his patented hot streaks at the moment but that is likely why we’re getting this prop at plus money odds. By no means is he struggling at the plate, with a .319 AVG and .471 wOBA over his last 20 games. But his splits against lefties are off the charts this season, which is why we want to look for him to account for multiple bases against LHP Kyle Freeland today. Against LHPs this season, Goldy has an absurd .432 AVG, .557 wOBA, .383 ISO, and 269 wRC+. As long as Freeland gives him some hittable pitches, Goldy will have a great chance to cash in on this prop.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!