Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/15 | Which Pitchers Can We Trust on Today's 13-Game Slate?

Author

Ryan Humphries
August 15, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone is prepared to tackle another enormous Tuesday slate with 13 games slotted in on the main slate ticket! Perhaps I’m being a little overly dramatic, but this may be the shabbiest 13-game pitching slate we’ve seen all season. Inevitably, several guys will come through with surprise performances, but you know it’s rough when DraftKings has Jordan Montgomery priced at $11,000. So, when it comes to pitching, it may be one of those days where we’re throwing $#!% at the wall and seeing what sticks. On the flip side, finding viable stack options should be a non-issue! Let’s see if we can crack the code today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • BOS @ WAS (7:05 ET): Some storms look to be rolling through the area this afternoon but hopefully be cleared by first pitch. Additional rain may come through in the middle innings, adding some risk to starting pitchers, but they should be able to get nine innings played regardless. Just be mindful of the risk of a mid-game delay. Winds OUT to center at 5-10 mph.

  • PIT @ NYM (7:10 ET): Radar looks clear right now but some scattered storms may make their way into the area this evening. We’ll need to run a pre-game check here to feel 100% confident about rostering players from this game. Winds IN from center/right near 10 mph.

  • NYY @ ATL (7:20 ET): Any rain should be out of the way by first pitch. Warm and humid conditions with winds blowing OUT to left at 10-15 mph. Nice bump to bats.

  • CWS @ CHC (8:05 ET): Winds IN from left at 5-10 mph. Wrigley Field is the most wind-sensitive MLB ballpark so pitchers should get a slight bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $11.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ TOR

As touched on in the intro, the pitching on this slate is rough, particularly for a 13-gamer. That will lead to a lot of eyes on Wheeler today, and it makes a solid amount of sense. But it also doesn’t feel exactly like a “smash play.” While Wheeler has shown a strong floor throughout the season, the upside games haven’t been plentiful as of late and he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board. In Wheeler’s last eight games, he has only scored more than 20.8 DKFP/37 FDFP twice. But he also has a stretch of six consecutive quality starts going, so we can rest assured that he should pitch deep into the game while limiting the run damage. Wheeler has also performed slightly better on the road this season where he has posted a 3.44 ERA, 3.25 xFIP, and 28.2% kRate as opposed to a 4.07 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, and 26.1% kRate at home -- not a massive difference, but notable enough.

Getting to the match-up, while it isn’t incredible, it doesn’t detract from Wheeler’s DFS viability. The Blue Jays have ranked bottom-10 against RHPs over the last two weeks in AVG, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while ranking mid-pack with a 22.8% kRate. Wheeler faced this team back on May 10th and pitched seven innings on 107 pitches, allowing just three hits, a walk, and one run, and he racked up seven strikeouts -- good for 25.4 DKFP/43 FDFP. A similar result would be welcomed today and, while he is expensive, finding cheap bats to be able to squeeze him in shouldn’t be a major issue on a slate of this size.

 

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ WAS

Note: Remember to check the forecast closer to first pitch to rule out the likelihood of a mid-inning delay.

I expect plenty of attention will fall on Pivetta today as well but he’s priced fairly and has been posting some excellent results ever since moving into a long reliever role in mid-June and, now, back to a traditional starter. Dating back to June 18th (44.0 IP), Pivetta has procured a highly impressive 2.66 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .162 opp AVG, and a mammoth 38.6% kRate. He has also pitched better on the road away from the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. In his road games since that June 18th mark, he has boasted a 0.62 WHIP and 46.0% kRate!

Pivetta’s tendency to give up the long ball has still been a bit of an issue but fortunately, in his case, he’ll be facing a Nationals team that has the second-fewest home runs versus right-handed pitching this season. The bigger catch here is the fact that the Nats excel at avoiding strikeouts -- their 19.0% kRate vs. RHPs this season is the second-lowest in baseball. That being said, Washington also owns the 7th lowest wOBA (.306) and 4th lowest exit velocity (88.4 mph) against Pivetta’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer, curveball, and slider. And, given how many swings and misses he is creating lately, there is still some solid potential for Pivetta to rack up around six-to-eight strikeouts, even against a low-strikeout team. The Red Sox (-172 ML) are also heavy favorites so, all-in-all, Pivetta makes for a very worthy target out of the mid-range.

Zack Littell (RHP), TB | DK: $6.8k, FD: $5.7k | @ SF

If there’s ever a large slate to just carpet bomb your pitcher player pool with some cheap arms, it’s probably this one, and Littell will earn the value arm spotlight today. Littell has pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season but, due to several injuries to their starting rotation, he’s been stretched out as a more traditional starter in recent weeks and will step in for a fourth consecutive start tonight. There’s nothing remarkable about Littell but he has put up some all-around “solid” numbers this season with a 4.10 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, and 20.2% kRate while maintaining a low 3.4% Walk Rate and 1.08 HR/9 Rate. He has also worked through six full innings in back-to-back starts, despite only throwing 73 and 74 pitches. It’d be nice to see his pitch count increase tonight, but that’s typically a risk with most Rays’ starting pitchers -- still, we should expect around 80 pitches from Littell in this one.

The match-up with the slumping Giants offense is the real draw here, especially since this game is at Oracle Park, the #3 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season, where the Giants have averaged a measly 3.84 runs/gm. Littell also played for the Giants over the last couple of seasons, so he’ll be pitching in a familiar environment. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, the Giants rank dead last in each of the following offensive categories: AVG (.186), OPS (.540), wOBA (.244), ISO (.085), wRC+ (51), and HardContact% (27.6%) while striking out 23.4% of the time. We’re not asking for much out of Littell here, so if he can sniff the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold, we’ll happily take it on this ugly pitching slate.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Baily Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.3k | vs. DET

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. MIL

Jack Flaherty (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ SD

Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. OAK

Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.4k | @ KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Joe Mantiply (LHP), ARI

 

Also, “Obligatory Braves Stack”

Atlanta Braves vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

Stacking the Braves (5.8 implied runs -- 1st among non-Coors teams) against the 8+ ERA Severino is about as obvious as saying “Coors Field bats are in a good spot.”

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

+ Dodgers: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Houser owns a near-6 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed a high 38.1% HardContact% over the last 30 days (3rd highest among today’s starters).

+ The current Dodgers roster owns a .405 wOBA in 46 PA vs. Houser.

+ Dodgers vs. RHPs L30Days: .281 AVG (4th), .835 OPS (3rd), .357 wOBA (3rd), and 127 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Dodgers are averaging 5.47 runs/gm at home.

+ Only one LAD hitter (Freddie Freeman) is projected over 10% pOwn%.

- The Brewers bullpen has been excellent over the last month, ranking 2nd in MLB with a 3.73 xFIP and 1st with a 1.08 WHIP.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy

Bargain Bat: James Outman

 

Chicago Cubs vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

+ Cubs: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Toussaint has shown some notable struggles on the road where he owns a 5.47 ERA, 5.83 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .344 opp wOBA, and a very poor 19.0% Walk Rate.

+ Cubs at home vs. RHPs L30Days: .328 AVG, .988 OPS, .420 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 168 wRC+.

+ The Cubs have 30 stolen bases over the last month (T-2nd most in MLB) and are 2nd in runs scored during that stretch as well.

+ The White Sox own a bottom-10-ranked bullpen.

+ All Cubs hitters are projected under 10% pOwn%.

- Winds blowing in at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field will make for some tougher home run hitting conditions.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), LAA

+ All Rangers hitters are projected for a ≤ 7% pOwn%.

+ Rangers: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Giolito has not had his best stuff as of late -- over his last five starts, he’s posted an 8.75 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, .305 opp AVG, .425 opp wOBA, and 3.0 HR/9 Rate.

+ Giolito has posted a 6.15 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in road games this season (vs. a 2.62 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in home games).

+ Globe Life Field has ranked as the #4 most hitter-friendly park this season (#1 HR park) and the Rangers continue to be a buzzsaw at home where they lead the MLB averaging 6.30 runs/gm.

+ The Rangers own an MLB-best 135 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home this season.

+ The Angels bullpen has an MLB-worst 1.60 WHIP over the last month.

- Giolito is still a fairly high-end MLB starter and there’s no guarantee his road struggles, or recent struggles, will continue into this game.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver

Bargain Bat: JP Martinez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), LAA

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), SF

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

2B/SS Trevor Story, BOS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Josiag Gray (RHP), WAS

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Joe Mantiply (LHP), ARI

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Tommy Edman, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), OAK

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

C Mitch Garver, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), LAA

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alex Faedo (RHP), DET

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Ty Blach (LHP), COL

OF JP Martinez, TEX | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), LAA

OF/SS Nicky Lopez, ATL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Matt Olson MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Luis Severino + Bailey Ober MORE than 0.5 First Inning Runs Allowed

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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