Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/15 | Mondays Are Just Better With Baseball

August 15, 2022

A handful of top-end pitchers headline today's slate but we'll look into what offenses are set to excel as well!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back to another jam-packed week of MLB DFS! It’s always nice to start off the workweek with a beefy MLB slate. Today we will be blessed with a well-balanced 10-game schedule! This slate has a solid equilibrium between pitching options and hitting/stack options, including a really interesting pitcher’s duel out in Anaheim. There will be no Coors Field chalk bats to worry about either, which I know some people are thrilled to see. Let’s have some fun!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s a fairly quiet weather day but there are still a couple of games with some level of delay risk.

CHC @ WAS (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): It’s looking a little overcast in Washington this evening which could mean a shower could develop over the ballpark. Low-end chance of a delay of some sort.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8 O/U): Some scattered storms in the general ATL vicinity. One could make its way over the ballpark and cause a delay. Winds blowing OUT to left at around 10 mph.

HOU @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11k | vs. TB

It’s hard to argue against rostering any of the top-five priced pitchers on the board today (Ohtani, Cole, Urias, Castillo, Strider). Some guys will provide better leverage than others, and Cole may end up being the chalkiest pitcher of the day, but it’s looking like a good spot to go to him today. He has demolished Tampa Bay in three previous starts against them this season: 19.1 IP, 0.93 ERA, 2.58 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, .123 opp AVG, 40.3% kRate (!!!). It hasn’t been a consistent season for Cole but he does tend to be a more reliable option when pitching at home where he has a 3.05 ERA, 2.21 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, .205 opp AVG, and 35.2% kRate -- all figures are noticeably improved when compared to his results on the road. The Rays offense is average at best and they offer up plenty of strikeout upside so, while Cole has failed in several promising spots this season, we should bank on a strong outing today.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. NYM

I understand why folks would be hesitant to go to Strider today. He just had a poor outing against the Mets in his last start on August 7th and the Mets offense, in general, has been red hot (142 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks, ranks 3rd). However, Strider’s raw upside is on the same level as Shohei Ohtani and Gerrit Cole, yet he will come in at around half of the ownership of those guys. We can also feel a bit better about Strider when he’s pitching at home. In 45.2 IP at Truist Park this season, Strider has put up some video game-like numbers: 2.76 ERA, 2.02 xFIP, and an absurd 39.9% kRate. It’s a moderately high risk/high reward play, but Strider deserves some GPP consideration on this slate.

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. ARI

Cobb is going to be a better bargain on DraftKings where his flat $7k price tag will place him firmly on the SP2 radar. Many will look to load up on two of those top five pitchers in the same lineup, but Cobb deserves some consideration if you’re in search of some salary flexibility. He has been particularly sharp over his last five starts where he has posted a highly respectable 3.26 ERA with a 2.54 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 29.8% kRate. In what has been a running theme today, Alex Cobb is yet another pitcher who tends to perform better when pitching in his home ballpark where his 3.00 ERA is nearly cut in half when compared to his 5.94 ERA on the road. He has also posted a 27.1% kRate at home this season compared to a below-average 21.5% kRate on the road. Cobb has not fared incredibly well against the D-Backs in two previous meetings with them this year but, given his recent trends, I’d say he’s in line for a strong start this evening.

Also Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10k | vs. SEA

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIL

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.2k | @ LAA

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, Bulk Reliever), TB

LHP Jalen Beeks is penciled in as the Rays starter today and likely pitches the first one or two innings, but Ryan Yarbrough is scheduled to enter the game after Beeks to operate as the bulk reliever. It will likely depend on how well he’s pitching, but Yarbrough should cover anywhere between three and six innings. The Yankees have cooled off in recent weeks but we may want to look in their direction considering how many at-bats they’ll receive against lefty pitching today. Even with the recent struggles, they’re still putting up huge numbers against lefties. In 168 plate appearances against LHPs in the last month, they lead the MLB with a 163 wRC+ to go along with a .394 wOBA, .275 ISO, and a low 18.5% kRate. All of those numbers improve drastically when you look at their home splits against lefties in that same span (203 wRC+, .448 wOBA, .351 ISO). Aaron Judge is always a popular one-off target but, even though they are still a little banged up, I’d consider some full three-to-five-man Yankees stacks today.

TB Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson | Sneaky Bat: Jose Trevino (1% pOwn%)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

It may surprise some, but the Orioles have been a top-five offense in the month of August where they have posted a 122 wRC+. They’ve been even better against lefties in that span (135 wRC+) and today, they’re facing LHP Yusei Kikuchi for the second time within the span of a week. Kikuchi went five innings against the O’s last Monday, giving up six hits (three HRs), three walks, and five earned runs. Kikuchi is no stranger to having a strong game here or there, but across his last 10 starts (37.2 IP), he has come away with an ugly 6.93 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, .428 opp wOBA, and 3.30 HR/9 Rate. The Blue Jays bullpen has also been performing as a bottom 10 relief unit in recent weeks so it’s a strong spot for the O’s bats to stay hot today.

TOR Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman, Jorge Mateo | Sneaky Bat: Ramon Urias (8% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

Stacking against Josiah Gray doesn’t always work out, but when it does, it tends to hit big and usually entails multiple home runs being launched at his expense. Gray has also struggled at home this season where he has posted a 6.75 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .393 opp wOBA, and has given up 2.66 HR/9. The Cubbies have been a top 10 offense against RHPs in the month of August (.340 wOBA ranks 6th, 117 wRC+ ranks 7th) and they’ll carry some solid upside at low ownership on this slate. Getting some innings against Washington’s awful bullpen is just an added bonus.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras, Nico Hoerner | Sneaky Bat: Nick Madrigal (5% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, Bulk Reliever), TB

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

OF Ian Happ | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Jorge Mateo | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

1B/2B Luis Arraez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

1B/OF Joey Meneses | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

C Jose Trevino | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, Bulk Reliever), TB

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

2B Nick Madrigal | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

2B Vaughn Grisson | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

Tucker has been mighty hot at the plate, hitting .393 over his last eight games with a .498 wOBA, .357 ISO, and 238 wRC+. He’s knocked five XBH in that span, including a pair of dingers. His match-up with Johnny Cueto doesn’t necessarily jump off the page. Cueto has been efficient at limiting the damage this season, pitching his way to a 2.91 ERA in 15 starts and allowing 1.00 HR/9 to LHBs. However, he’s overdue for some regression given his lackluster 4.22 xFIP. The main draw here will be trying to capitalize on Tucker’s hot bat. But it should also be noted that Guaranteed Rate Field has stood out as the best home run ballpark for lefty hitters this season, and it’s not particularly close. There will also be some 10 mph winds blowing out towards right field, which should only help boost the home run chances for a lefty hitter like Kyle Tucker.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Luis Castillo OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | +118 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Most books have Castillo’s K prop at 6.5 (best odds at -150 on BetMGM) but let’s look for a bit more profit and go with the over on 7.5 Ks. Castillo has wasted no time settling into his new digs with the Seattle Mariners and is coming off of highly impressive back-to-back starts against the Yankees. He has hit the over on this prop in four of his last five starts and is averaging over 106 pitches/gm in that span. He draws the match-up with the strikeout-prone Angels lineup today. The Angels have a 25.4% kRate vs. RHPs over the last two weeks, the fourth-highest in the MLB. If his recent performances are any indication, Castillo should be able to cruise to eight Ks in this one.

Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 Runs | +120 (DraftKings) | 2.5 Units

This is a prop that has cashed in 10 of Bregman’s last 11 games, so getting it at +120 odds will be some tough value to pass up. Since the calendar flipped over to August, the Astros are hitting .295 with a 159 wRC+ when they have runners in scoring position. In that same span, Bregman is batting .400 with a .500 OBP and 12 runs scored. This prop also gets an additional bump with the Astros being on the road and therefore guaranteed to hit in the ninth inning.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!