Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/12 | Previewing Friday's Loaded Slate!

August 12, 2022

A ton of MLB action is on the board tonight so let's sift through the best Friday options to target!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Load up and lock in for another monster Friday slate! A 13-game main slate is flying in on the docket tonight and it’s a juicy one. Aces, value arms, Coors Field, and plenty of appealing non-Coors stacks are all in play today. Let’s waste no time and jump right into the action!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Oh, happy day! No bad weather concerns on the entire slate!

PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing IN from center/left at 10 mph.

ARI @ COL (8:40 ET, 12 O/U): Light winds blowing IN from the outfield but it’s still Coors Field and it’ll be 90+ degrees for just about the entire game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PIT

We get an elite lefty against the Pirates, which is about the best match-up a southpaw could ask for. Over the last month against LHPs, the Pirates are hitting for a putrid .202 AVG with a .265 wOBA, .115 ISO, 69 wRC+, and, most importantly for DFS purposes, they’re striking out a ton with a 28.6% kRate. Rodon has been cruising at home this season where, in 51.0 IP, he has posted a 1.76 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and a massive 35.4% kRate while averaging 25.2 DKFP/gm. The last time he faced this Pirates lineup, he dominated across eight scoreless two-hit innings, struck out eight batters, and racked up 35.6 DKFP/58 FDFP. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that we’ll see a similar performance from him tonight. We also don’t need to worry about those 10+ mph winds blowing out to left field since Oracle Park’s design minimizes the impact of wind.

Tyler Mahle (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | @ LAA

Mahle has shown off an excellent fantasy-scoring ceiling this season and he’ll draw his most favorable match-up in nearly two months after facing the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Cardinals, Orioles, and Blue Jays in his last six starts. The Mike Trout-less Angels have been picking up their offense a bit in recent weeks but they’re still a lineup that can be attacked. They rank 20th in the MLB vs. RHPs over the last two weeks with a 93 wRC+ while hitting only .225 and striking out with a high 25.4% kRate. Tyler Mahle’s 25.8% kRate trails only two other pitchers on this slate and their names are Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodon.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIL

Monty never feels like a sexy play but if you need someone who should get you around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP while not breaking the bank, he could be your guy. The Brewers have just been so bad against lefties and they’re giving out strikeouts like candy on Halloween. Their 30.2% kRate against LHPs over the last month is the highest mark in the league and, in that time, they’re also hitting only .215 with a .278 wOBA, .083 ISO, and 75 wRC+. Montgomery brings a rock-solid 3.53 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, and 1.08 WHIP to the table and often averages close to a strikeout per inning.

Also Consider:

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.4k | vs. PHI

Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. OAK

Mike Clevinger (RHP), SD | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.1k | @ WAS

Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

San Diego Padres vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

Juan Soto returning to Washington for one of the quickest reunions ever will be the big storyline in this game but, for DFS purposes, this is all about attacking Cory Abbott and a bad Nationals bullpen. In 30.0 IP in the major leagues, Abbott has accumulated a 6.30 ERA, 6.49 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, and a 3.60 HR/9 Rate. It’s been tough scenes for Abbott in the majors. The Padres have 20 runs scored on 27 hits in their last two games, they get a notable park upgrade going on the road, and they’ve averaged the fifth-most runs per game in away games this season.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Josh Bell | Sneaky Bat: Jake Cronenworth (5% pOwn%)

Houston Astros vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

Oller is another easy guy to pick on today. Across 43.2 IP during his 2022 rookie season, he has a terrible 7.63 ERA, 6.30 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, and 2.47 HR/9 Rate. On top of that, he struggles to strike out anyone with his 13.9% kRate. The Astros have already seen his pitches a couple of times this season and, surprisingly, Oakland ended up winning both of those games. Houston seems to love to fall flat when presented with good match-ups like the one they’ll receive today but let’s look for them to come through for once!

OAK Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker | Sneaky Bat: Aledmys Diaz (<1% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

Is this super sneaky? Probably not. But, when the slate is as big as this one is, I’m not a fan of getting too cute with the highlighted team in this section. Most, if not all, of the Blue Jays bats should fall in well under 10% ownership as well so they certainly fit the criteria. Cal Quantrill has been a guy to target when he’s pitching on the road, as he will do in Toronto today. In 49.0 IP on the road this season, Quantrill has a not-so-sharp 4.96 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .314 opp AVG, and .364 opp wOBA. He also has just a 13.5% kRate in away games. Toronto leads the MLB with a .346 wOBA when facing RHPs at home. They’ll have to deal with a really strong Guardians bullpen but perhaps they beat up on Quantrill early and Cleveland elects to not use their best relievers in the later innings.

CLE Bullpen Rating: 9/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman | Sneaky Bat: Teoscar Hernandez (1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Cory Abbott (RHP), WAS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josh Sborz (RHP), TEX

3B Ryan McMahon | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Josh Sborz (RHP), TEX

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

1B/3B Jose Miranda | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Joey Meneses | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), SD

1B/3B Elehuris Montero | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Lamonte Wade Jr. | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

2B/3B Christian Arroyo | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

I usually don’t lean heavily on BvP but perhaps it’s time to make an exception when it comes to Christian Walker vs. Antonio Senzatela. In 25 PA against Senzatela, Walker has crushed him for a .520 AVG, .606 wOBA, and .400 ISO with a pair of HRs. Also, in Christian Walker’s last three seasons, he has played in Coors Field in 15 games. In that time, he has posted a .292 AVG, .409 wOBA, and .323 ISO with six home runs! He’s a good bet to blast another one out tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Friday Fun Money Home Run Parlay

Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez, & Mitch Haniger ALL to hit a Home Run | +4450 | 0.5 Units

Everyone loves a good home run parlay and this will be the one I’m rolling with tonight. I also like mixing and matching a couple of these guys with Aaron Judge and/or Juan Soto for some additional HR parlays. Bet small, win big! That’s the hope here!

Carlos Rodon to Earn the Win: Yes | -140 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the DFS pitching section above, Rodon has been an animal on his home mound (1.76 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 35.4% kRate) and the Pirates have been terrible against lefties. Rodon has a 5-1 record in nine home starts this season and as long as he gets a bit of run support and the Giants bullpen holds its own, he should be able to cruise to a win this evening.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!